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Vegas Martin’s Week 7 College Football Picks

Posted by in College Football Picks on October 17th, 2009 | Comment »

I’ve posted my picks for the Friday Rutgers/Pitt game and the big Red River Rivalry, but like I said in those picks, those games are not worth betting on.  They’re more of just “publicity” posts in order to get more readership to the site since a lot of football fans are searching for information on those games.

In this post, I’ll highlight what I think are the strongest plays to make this Saturday.  As always, home teams in caps (you should know this by now).  Remember to check THE PASS RUSH prior to kick off prior to Saturday and Sunday if there’s any late-breaking information on games or spreads.

VEGAS MARTIN’S TOP 5 PICKS RANKED BY STRENGTH:

1.) Kansas -9.5 over COLORADO: (L) Colorado is really bad at 1-5 and they’re up against the 15th ranked Kansas Jayhawks. Kansas is scoring 40.5 PPG and Colorado is giving up 30 PPG.  Kansas’s Todd Reesing is completing 70% of his passes and has a 13/3 TD/INT ration.  This looks like an easy domination by Kansas.

2.) Ohio State -13 over PURDUE: (L) Ohio State is incredible and Purdue is 1-5.  Purdue lost by 15 to Minnesota last week and lost by 6 to a mediocre Northwestern team the week before.  I don’t think Ohio State has any problems blowing this team out.  This is one of the stronger plays of the week.  There are no major injuries to be worried about except that RB Herron is doubtful, but they can dominate the game even if he can’t play.  Take Ohio State.  Prediction: Ohio State 31 – Purdue 10.

3.) Wake Forest +7.5 over CLEMSON: (L) I don’t understand why Clemson is such a heavy favorite.  Wake Forest has a much better QB who is completing 70% of his passes and has thrown for 15 TDs compared to Clemson’s QB who is completing a mere 55% of his passes and has just 5 TDs.  Wake’s QBs yardage output is almost double Clemson’s QB.  Wake clearly has the edge in the passing game and both run offenses are about equal.  Clemson definitely does have the edge on defense though.  Clemson allows 17.8 PPG (11 PPG at home) compared to Wake’s 21.8 PPG allowed.  These teams have one common opponent: Maryland.  Wake Forest defeated Maryland 42-32.  Clemson lost against Maryland 24-21.  I’m a bit worried about Clemson’s D, but if you have a QB as good as Wake’s Riley Skinner, they should be able to cover the 7.5 points.  With Clemson’s D, they will likely win, but I think Wake gets enough points to likely cover the spread.  Go with Wake.

4.) UL Lafayette -7.5 over WESTERN KENTUCKY: (W) WK is terrible.  They’re allowing 40 PPG and scoring just 13 PPG.  This should be an easy win for ULL.

5.) USC -10 over NOTRE DAME: (L) Notre Dame has been disappointing so far this season.  Notre Dame may be 4-1, but they’re 1-4 against the spread.  Notre Dame’s defense has been a liability while USC’s has been stellar.  This one may be close with the spread, but USC historically dominates this game.  USC has covered the last three games against ND.  USC is clearly the play to make, but crazy stuff sometimes goes down in these games due to the luck of the Irish.

BONUS PICKS:

I would not recommend betting on the games below, but I’m adding the analysis for kicks and giggles.

1.) Fresno State -20 over SAN JOSE STATE: (P) SJS is pretty bad at 1-4, with 15 PPG and 36 PPG allowed.  FS is the much stronger team.  FS just blew out Hawaii and were able to hang with a very good Cincinnati and Boise State teams.  I don’t love the game though due to the very high number.

2.) BOSTON COLLEGE -2 over NC State: (W) I was debating taking this pick off the list since it’s not a really strong play, but I already wrote up the analysis, so I might as well let you read it.  BC is a quality football team at 4-2 and NC State is just middle of the pack at 3-3.   BC’s only two losses are to two outstanding football teams on the road: Clemson and Virginia Tech.  BC has impressive wins over Florida State and Wake Forest.  NC State just lost to Duke!  NC State does have the better QB though who has twice as many yards and TDs as BC’s QB.  NC State is also stellar against the run, allowing just 62 yards per game (1.9 yards per attempt).  NC State is also gaining 390 yards per game.  I’m going to stick with BC, but wouldn’t be suprised if NC State pulled off the upset on the road because of their solid run D and great play from their QB.  I would actually pass on this game.

3.) South Carolina +18 over ALABAMA: (W) I love Alabama this year and they’re 4-1 ATS and have covered high spreads so far, but the number is just way to high in this game.  Alabama should be maybe a 13-point favorite.  No doubt they win at home, but I think they win by 10-17.  SC covers the 18, in my opinion.  They’re a 5-1 team and allow just 18 PPG and score 27 PPG, so they’re no slouch.  This isn’t a very strong play, but I’ll add it to the bonus picks for the hell of it.



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