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SMART BET COLLEGE PICKS WEEK 9

Posted by in College Football Picks on October 27th, 2009 | 51 Comments

Overall Profit 7.5 units (updated 10/31)

On Saturday we won 4.9 units!! We went 5-1 and hit my College Game of the Year Release #2!!

I told you the college week started early! It’s Tuesday and we start building that bankroll for the weekend tonight.

1.) East Carolina (-5) at Memphis for 1 unit: All my key indicators have ECU as  a 7.5 point favorite. ECU is only 1-3 on the road this year, but in their defense they  have played very strong home teams in WVU, UNC, and SMU. Memphis does not fall into that category of strong home teams. ECU’s strength of schedule over Memphis alone makes them a strong play. ECU is 3-1 in conference play while Memphis is 1-3. I just don’t see Memphis being able to move the ball against a strong ECU defense. ECU rolls 34-17.

ECU 39 Memphis 19 W for 1 unit

2.) GAME OF THE YEAR RELEASE #2: Akron at Northern Illinois (-11) for 2 units.

Let me repeat, I hate using that phrase, but this game lines up in all the key categories I examine when looking at a game. This line should have NIU favored by 17 points. Akron is playing their third consecutive road game and you know I love playing against teams that have traveled that much. Plus Akron is playing terrible and has no reason to be inspired enough to get up for this battle with NIU. Plus examining key line movement indicates “smart money” is on this game as well. NIU rolls in an absolute blowout. Final Score 49-10.

NIU 26 Akron 10 W for 2 units.

3) Western Michigan at Kent State (-2.5) for 1 unit.

Kent State 26  Western Michigan 14 W for 1 unit

4.) Mississippi State at Kentucky (-3) for 1 unit.

Kentucky 24 Mississippi State 31 L for 1.1 units.

5.) USC at Oregon (+3) for 1 unit.

Oregon 47 USC 20 W for 1 unit

6.) North Carolina at Virginia Tech (-14.5) for 1 unit. I just bet this game on my lunch hour at the Hilton. My stats have VaTech a 23.5 point favorite, which is likely why you saw the line move early from 15 to 16.5, but why the line has moved back to 14.5 seems beyond belief. I just do not see how UNC scores on the road. They were able to put up 27 against FSU last week, but they still lost and there is no debating how terrible the defense of Florida State is. VT will easily covers this spread if a couple things happen: (1) they don’t turn the ball over, and (2) their defense  setups a few easy scores by creating turnovers or winning the field position battle. Both of which I think they will do.

UNC 20 VT 17 L for 1.1 units.

7.) Air Force (-6) at Colorado State for 1 unit: CSU has been tough at home over the past few years, but AF’s D will cause to much havoc for the Rams to deal with on Saturday.

Air Force 34 Colorado State 16 W for 1 unit

8.) Ole Miss at Auburn (+4) for 1 unit. Auburn rebounds with an upset win.

Auburn 33 OleMiss 20 W for 1 unit

Good Luck.



51 Responses to SMART BET COLLEGE PICKS WEEK 9:

  1. J

    Date: Oct 27, 2009 at 1:37 pm

    I was thinking the exact same thing Brandon! Had already decided on a play for ECU. I also have a little bet I’d like to put in on a parlay tonight… have you thought about the over/under on the football game?

  2. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Oct 27, 2009 at 3:12 pm

    I am leaning towards the under 48. I know I put 34-17, but I was stretching to see Memphis score that many points. I should have factored in the point spread as well. I wouldn’t make the under a big play, but am leaning that way.

    Good Luck.

  3. J

    Date: Oct 27, 2009 at 3:54 pm

    hmm… after looking at the bball picks… i was thinking about a 3 teamer for a small bet… ecu, and lakers and houston…

  4. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Oct 27, 2009 at 4:08 pm

    I would go 2-teamer: Lakers and ECU. . . I like the Houston game, but it is a small play as I see line value here at +9. Houston is w/o Ming and McGrady, therefore there are definitely some questions about this lineup, but +9 seems like good value.

  5. Jackson

    Date: Oct 27, 2009 at 4:25 pm

    Hey Brandon, I live in Memphis, and for the last 12 hours, its been nothing but rain…. Its 4:15pm cst and continues to drizzle….. I would be completely shocked if the O/U is anywhere near 48, but possible… The field should be a mess by Halftime with the grass at the liberty bowl being very soft.. I agree totally, ECU-5, and Under 48…..

  6. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Oct 27, 2009 at 4:38 pm

    Jackson

    Great info! That is the stuff that makes a huge difference in betting O/U. I liked the under before and now I like it even more!

    Secondly,

    If you did jump on my early NBA releases you will see that the Lakers are at -12 in most places and Houston is down to +8.5. Hopefully it won’t be that close, but it could be the difference between a winning and or losing bet.

    Good Luck!

  7. Biggie0056

    Date: Oct 27, 2009 at 5:41 pm

    Brandon… im questioning the 44 point favorite in the Ohio State game this weekend. Do you think i should jump all over New Mexico State now or wait or not even play it?

    +44 is ALOT of points.

    What do you think?

  8. Jake

    Date: Oct 27, 2009 at 5:41 pm

    great info jackson! thanks!

  9. 711

    Date: Oct 27, 2009 at 5:58 pm

    Yeah I like ECU also, every other board and forum I have read has said the same thing.

  10. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Oct 27, 2009 at 6:18 pm

    New Mexico State is not going to take any money and as a general rule you wait as long as possible to bet on an underdog. I would agree with you that 44 points for the Ohio State team is a ton of points to be laying, but you have to look at it this way. . . NEW MEXICO STATE IS GOING TO SCORE 0 POINTS. Therefore, can OSU score 44? Tough call. I would wait until one of two things happens, 1) the line starts to move back down, or 2) 10 minutes before kickoff.

    Good Luck!

  11. Jake

    Date: Oct 27, 2009 at 6:24 pm

    i’d be interested in hearing the rest of the rules?

  12. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Oct 27, 2009 at 6:32 pm

    Jake

    Rules about betting underdogs?

    1) the public usually bets favorites
    2) therefore, you wait to the last minute or till you start seeing the line move back down before betting a dog so that you can get as many points as possible.
    3) don’t expect terrible teams to do good things, why? they usually don’t!

    That is my rules for betting underdogs. I love the dogs, but the best way to bet dogs is to bet dogs that you think can win outright like Clemson last weekend.

    Love the comments!

  13. Miz

    Date: Oct 27, 2009 at 8:00 pm

    ECU is lookin fabolous!!

  14. Biggie0056

    Date: Oct 27, 2009 at 9:34 pm

    yeah ecu is looking amazing… another great tip.

  15. 711

    Date: Oct 28, 2009 at 4:02 am

    Great picks guys, you and thepickz.com had this game on lockdown and it payed off for me tonight. Keep up the good work.

  16. Jake

    Date: Oct 28, 2009 at 7:29 am

    i did GREAT over the weekend and decided I really liked the ECU play last night… put a nickel down and hit! beautiful! I love the early week wins to setup the weekend!

    great job guys. lots of comments early in the week too!

  17. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Oct 28, 2009 at 12:12 pm

    Easy winner with ECU last night. Great way to start a week. Not trying to brag, but my totals have been very close. Originally I said the final score would be 34-17, and final was 39-19. I later adjusted the line because of the weather, but otherwise that original line was really close. As was the total I gave on my game of the year release last weekend.

    Lets continue to roll and pound those books!

    Thanks for all the comments.

    By the way, I am releasing free college and nba picks at thetripledouble.com. My best sport is college basketball and simply cannot wait for it start.

  18. Some Guy

    Date: Oct 29, 2009 at 6:57 am

    Hey B! Great work.

    Have been doing some looking into the game tonight… nc @ vt. I haven’t decided on if I will place a bet… but my pick would be to take NC plus 16.5

    I’m sure VT will win.. but I think NC has an ok defense and should keep it within 16.5.. thoughts?

  19. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Oct 29, 2009 at 10:35 am

    Some Guy,

    I have been looking at this game all week. Yes, 16.5 points seems like a ton of points to me as well and you are exactly right that UNC’s D is very good. However, despite UNC’s great D their offense is terrible, actually one of the worst in football. VT’s D, especially at home, is going to be extremely difficult to score on. Maybe UNC gets a couple field goals, but they won’t score more than 10 points. The question is whether VT’s offense can score between 27 and 34 points? That is a tough call. If I play the game I am going with VT, otherwise I am staying away simply because of how bad UNC’s offense is.

    Will post something later if I am going to make a play on the game.

    Thanks for the comments.

  20. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Oct 29, 2009 at 4:48 pm

    I released my play on tonight’s game between UNC at VT. It is now posted!

  21. Miz

    Date: Oct 29, 2009 at 5:38 pm

    What about the the under??

  22. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Oct 29, 2009 at 5:58 pm

    Miz. . .

    There really isn’t a tougher game to predict over/under then in these midweek games. Teams come up all hyped up about being center stage and having ESPN on campus, which tends to lead to pretty high scoring games. However, based on these two defensive teams alone you have to believe the UNDER is the way to go. I just don’t see UNC scoring more than 10 points. Even if VT would score in the low 30s you could still hit the under. Therefore, I would say under the total is the way to go if you have to play one or the other.

    Good Luck.

  23. Miz

    Date: Oct 29, 2009 at 8:05 pm

    Damn,tech looks like shit!

  24. Mike

    Date: Oct 29, 2009 at 8:14 pm

    Still a long way to play in the game. I took Ohio State last week and they didn’t look hot, but next thing you knew 2nd half just blew up. VTech is capable of that and just needs to make a few adjustments.

  25. Some Guy

    Date: Oct 30, 2009 at 8:40 am

    well.. you talked me out of it brandon and I went with VT… the points change was tough to pass on…. unbelievable game!

    no worries though as i’m still up big! now we have the loss out of the way it’s on to tonight and the weekend.

    i def like wv (-3)… devine is the fastest dude i’ve ever seen. no way sfu can stop them… they are 7th against the run in the big east i think

  26. Vegas Martin

    Date: Oct 30, 2009 at 8:56 am

    Game of the Year Release #3: Cincinnati -15.5 over SYRACUSE. I can’t believe how low this spread was. When I saw this matchup, I thought Cincy would be 27.5 favorites! Cincinnati wins in a blowout. At least by 38-10.

    What do you think Brandon?

  27. Vegas Martin

    Date: Oct 30, 2009 at 8:59 am

    I’m stunned that UNC won.

    Any chance you saw Brandon’s pick last night at THE TRIPLE DOUBLE? He called the Nuggets +8 over Portland and even said to take the Nuggets outright and the Nuggets took it down at +320!!!

    Be sure to check out the site, there are quick links at the top as well as an image on the right navigation to head on over there.

  28. Some Guy

    Date: Oct 30, 2009 at 9:18 am

    i did vegas! and it hit. kept me pretty much even for the night!

  29. Mike

    Date: Oct 30, 2009 at 9:49 am

    Yeah I took VT and lost that but I did the Nugget game last night. I wanted to do something and I saw what you posted and took them straight up. Got 3 to 1 on my money, yeah you guys rock :)

    I will take a loss with a 3 to 1 win everyday :)

  30. Huskers#1

    Date: Oct 30, 2009 at 10:48 am

    Vegas, glad your thinkin the same with cinci. I was all over this spread when I seen it and picked it up at 14.5

  31. Brandon

    Date: Oct 30, 2009 at 11:39 am

    Thanks for all the comments about the NBA game. I like the VT game and all the numbers lined up. How that defense gave up 20 points I will never know. Sometimes you just are completely on the wrong side. I knew we were in trouble after the first quarter when VT had the ball three times inside UNC territory and could not score.

    Give me a few and I will be back with an analysis of that Cincinnati game shortly.

  32. Brandon

    Date: Oct 30, 2009 at 11:43 am

    I do have Cincinnati listed as a 24 point favorite. The reason I stayed away from the game was I was skeptical about the backup QB starting for the second straight week after coming off that perfect performance last week. He doesn’t have to duplicate that performance for Cincinnati to win, but he might have to do that to get the cover on the road in conference in play. There is no way you take Syracuse in this match-up, but that is a bunch of points.

  33. J

    Date: Oct 30, 2009 at 11:48 am

    Any thoughts on tonights game? It looks like west virginia but south florida’s at home.

  34. Brandon

    Date: Oct 30, 2009 at 12:33 pm

    My initial thought was WVU as well, but all my info says USF should be a 3 point favorite. I just can’t get a good read on the game to decide one way or the other. Tonight’s game is a pass for me.

    Please remember to check the site late tonight as I will be posting any final plays for Saturday tonight.

    I do have 3 NBA games on tap for night over at thetripledouble.com

    Good Luck.

  35. Mark

    Date: Oct 30, 2009 at 5:15 pm

    Gonna play a 6 team parlay just for fun with all your remaining picks. See what happens.
    AirForce -6.5
    NIllinois -12
    Auburn +5
    Kentucky -3.5
    Oregon +3
    Kent -2.5

  36. Some Guy

    Date: Oct 31, 2009 at 7:24 am

    vegas you still feel like cincy is a game of the year? cover 16?

  37. Vegas Martin

    Date: Oct 31, 2009 at 9:25 am

    I love betting against Syracuse and Cincinnati has been playing at an awesome level. I’m not a college football guru like Brandon, so that pick is only worth 2 cents. I haven’t really broken this one down and you have the backup QB issue, but I still like this pick. I posted a bunch of college football games to look at if you want to check out some other games. I would give Cincy over Syracuse a 4/5 rating, but with the backup QB on the road having to cover a lot of points, it’s far from a lock. Good luck.

  38. Brandon

    Date: Oct 31, 2009 at 10:39 am

    I met with one of the handicappers last night I consider to be a serious player in the Vegas market. I asked him what games he was on and he handed me over his tickets. His best bet of the week was. . .

    1) Northern Illinois!

    Bet Two:

    2) Oregon

    Bet Three:

    3) Air Force

    Bet Four:

    4) Navy

    Bet Five:

    5) Missouri

    Based on that information I felt pretty good about my bets.

    Good Luck today.

  39. Huskers#1

    Date: Oct 31, 2009 at 12:28 pm

    I like a lot of your pics but i’m just not sure about the oregon vs. USC game. I think USC might get this one. Thats just me sayin.

  40. Vegas Martin

    Date: Oct 31, 2009 at 2:17 pm

    I agree. I wouldn’t throw that game into a parlay since it could go either way, but Oregon is a solid football team that will be jack up to play at home in the prime-time game. This has upset alert all over it. How about that Cincy win! GOTY #3 hits!

  41. Mark

    Date: Oct 31, 2009 at 2:19 pm

    2 of 2 on the first of the 6 game parlay. Good advice so far Brandon. Close call on the Norther Illinois.

  42. Mike

    Date: Oct 31, 2009 at 2:20 pm

    OMG man, I was watching the Akron game and all I can say is wow. They were losing going into the 4th quarter 10-6 and somehow they scored 21 points in the 4th quarter to pull off an amazing win.

    Wow is all I can say :)

  43. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Oct 31, 2009 at 2:26 pm

    GAME OF THE YEAR WIN #2!! It didn’t go as I predicted, but you are all cashing tickets!!

  44. Vegas Martin

    Date: Oct 31, 2009 at 2:32 pm

    21 4th quarter points… I bet that one almost gave you a heart attack being down 10-6 going in the 4th. Wow!

  45. Miz

    Date: Oct 31, 2009 at 2:32 pm

    Northern Illinois,what a cover…WOW!! Let’s go!!

  46. Mike

    Date: Oct 31, 2009 at 3:10 pm

    It gave me a heart attack. They scored the final touchdown with 46 seconds on the clock O.O

  47. Vegas Martin

    Date: Oct 31, 2009 at 3:58 pm

    Same thing happened with my Houston pick. It was tied at 43 and Houston scored a long TD with just seconds left to play. What a week.

    In response to biggie, Ohio State covered the 44 points against NMST by winning 45-0. Looks like the books know what they’re doing. That’s crazy!

  48. patrick

    Date: Oct 31, 2009 at 9:22 pm

    I didnt do well with my basket ball picks the other night… but Brandon got me back to even for the week with all his college football picks!!! great job guys keep it up!!!

  49. Some Guy

    Date: Oct 31, 2009 at 10:12 pm

    hey guys, looking for some advice on a 2 and 3 team early parlay tomorrow

  50. Vegas Martin

    Date: Oct 31, 2009 at 11:03 pm

    I like Dallas -9.5, Bears -13, Chargers -16.5. Unfortunately they’re high spreads, but they’re all at home and facing weak teams: Seahawks, Browns, and Raiders.

    I had someone who doesn’t like the Chargers over the Raiders pick though. Read the comments on the NFL article.

  51. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Nov 01, 2009 at 2:22 am

    Overall Profit of 4.9 units on Saturday alone!!

    I went 5-1 on my picks for Saturday and cashed my second Game of the Year Release!!

    Thanks for all the comments! Hope all of you cashed some huge tickets.

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