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Boise State vs. Nevada Pick Against the Spread

Posted by in College Football Picks on November 27th, 2009 | 146 Comments

Not only was Thursday a hell of a day, but we’ve gotten off to a great start again today.  We started off at 11:00 with a Rutgers pick that set the table for the rest of the day.  Rutgers cruised over Louisville 34-13 and we only had to give up 3 points.  I hope you capitalized off that pick. STAMP!

Then Brandon’s Game of the Year #4 hit, boosting his “game of the year” record to 3-1.  I was stunned myself when I saw that as his game of the year, but he gave me a hell of an explanation, so I didn’t second guess his judgment and jumped on Auburn +10 parlayed with the under in that game, which pushed, but I still got to take down the Auburn +10.  After the 11:00 game, we hit the 2:30 game. STAMP!

At the 7:00 spot we have Pittsburgh at WVU.  I’m making a small play on a teaser of Pitt +7 and the Under 55.  I’m expecting a tight defensive game.  I don’t want to make it too big with Pitt on the road, but I think they come out on top in this one.  STAMP!

Following the 7:00 game, we have Boise State and Nevada kicking off at 10:00.  Let’s get to the pick.

NEVADA WOLFPACK @ BOISE STATE BRONCOS -13.5

The over/under for this one is set at 70, so like any Boise State game, expect to see a lot of scoring. Boise averaged 44 PPG, while Nevada averages 41 PPG. Boise State gives up 17.3 PPG, while Nevada gives up 25.6 PPG.

Nevada’s offense has been utterly ridiculous all season long. They’re averaging 534 yards per game, more than 70 yards per game than Boise’s average of 456 yards. Nevada does it running the ball though, with a ridiculous 373 yards per game on the ground on just 161 yards per game with the pass.  Boise State has a much more balanced attack.

Nevada’s defense gives up a 100 more yards per game than Boise’s defense does. What’s really impressive about Boise State is how their defense has played at home, allowing just 11.6 PPG at home, and giving up just 79.6 yards per game while at home for a ridiculous 2.9 yards per rushing attempt allowed.

Boise State won this one 41-34 last year as a 6.5-point favorite. In the season before that, Boise State won 69-67 when they were favored by 25!

A look at some common opponents:

Hawaii: Navada beat them 31-21, Boise State beat them 54-9

Fresno State: Nevada beat them 52-14, Boise State beat them 51-34

San Jose State: Nevada beat them 52-14, Boise State beat them 62-7

Idaho: Nevada beat them 70-45, Boise State beat them 63-25

Utah State: Nevada beat them 35-32, Boise State beat them 52-21

The power of these offenses is just incredible. This one looks to be just one TD after another.  It’s tough to get a good read on what can happen on this game. No one has even been able to stop Nevada’s rushing game, so what happens when they face a Boise State team that has the ability to slow that running game?

10/14 experts at Covers.com like the Over and 14/17 like Boise State -13.5. Boise State is 8-3 ATS while Nevada is 6-5 ATS (4-1 in their last 5). The one reason I like Boise here is because their QB Kellen Moore has thrown 33 TDs and just 3 INTs compared to Nevada’s Colin Kaepernick who has 16 TDs and 5 INTs. However, Kaepernick brings an elusive running game to his arsenal to keep defenses on their toes. 13.5 points is pretty steep against an offense that has shown no signs of slowing down. Nevada has also proven that they can hang with Boise State the last two years.

Nevada has only proven they can beat up on the scrub teams of the WAC. Nevada’s defense is still horrendous and with Boise at home, I think you’ll see them coming out firing and grab an early lead while turning the reigns over to their defense who will have one mission: contain Kaepernick and stop Nevada’s running game. The 13.5 seems steep to me, especially since these games have been so close in the past, so I think you tease this one down to Boise State -6.5 and take the over 63. In the end, I think you see Boise outscore Nevada anywhere from 7-21 points.

Prediction: Boise State 45 – Nevada 34

Free Pick: 7-Point Teaser Boise State -6.5, Over 63 (Confidence: 2.5/5) (W)

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