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NFL Week 14 Predictions, Pick Against the Spread

Posted by in NFL Picks on December 10th, 2009 | 21 Comments

So after a ridiculous Thanksgiving weekend run, the NFL went back to being totally unpredictable and downright silly again, led by the Raiders beating the Steelers in Pittsburgh.

My Eagles won and gave us a big hit, but my other top 3 picks failed me as the Pats lost the Dolphins, the Vikings lost to the Cardinals, and the Cowboys lost to the Giants.

There’s no way I thought the Patriots would lose after their disappointing Monday Night loss to the Saints.  The Cardinals lose at home to the Panthers and 49ers at home and beat the Vikings? No one can make sense of whats going on with the Cardinals on a week-to-week basis.  I played the Cowboys since I thought Eli Manning is DONE due to his foot injury. Well, it turns out that he still has some gas left in the tank.

A quick glance at the spreads and I hate this week’s card.  But let’s see if we can find anything good.  I’m going to make this one short and sweet since I am running short on time.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS -10 @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

The Steelers have lost 4 straight including losses to the Chiefs and the Raiders. They also lost Hines Ward and Polamalu is still out. One of our readers suggested teasing Steelers -3 and taking the over 26.  That may be the way to go, but I like the under here. Don’t count on much scoring from the Browns. I had a pick of Browns +21, over 32.5 when the Browns faced the Bengals and the final score in that one was 16-7. The Browns are playing better D lately and this one will possibly be in the snow.  I like the Steelers -3 with the under 40.  I got this after the line movement, so my play is Steelers -2, Under 40.5.  It’s going to be COLD AND WINDY tonight. Into the negatives with the wind chill and 20-30 mph wind with 40 mph gusts.  Don’t expect much passing in this one.  I’ll go with the team that can pound the rock and that is the Steelers.  A healthy dose of Rashard Mendenhall. Hard to go wrong with the under in cold weather with a chance of snow.

Prediction: Steelers 10 – Browns 6

Free Pick: Teaser: Steelers -2, Under 40.5 (Confidence: 2.5/5)

SEATTLE SEAHAKWS @ HOUSTON TEXANS -6

Texans are due for a win. They’re at home and the Seahawks D sucks. Time for Andre Johnson to have a big game. Texans don’t lose 5 straight. Should be close with the spread since the Texans can give up a lot of points too.  I still think they cover by 1-4 points.

Prediction: Texans 27 – Seahawks 20

Free Pick: Texans -6 (Confidence: 2.5/5)

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS -6.5

Vikings have been ridiculously strong at home, while the Bengals failed to cover against the Lions and lost to the Raiders the week before. Their momentum is waining. I like the Vikings here.

Prediction: Vikings 27 – Bengals 16

Free Pick: Vikings -6.5 (Confidence: 3/5)

DENVER BRONCOS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -7

For some reason, I just feel that the Broncos match up well with the Colts. I think the Colts struggle to dominate the Broncos, but I think its safe to bank on them to win this game. You can tease this one to a Colts in pick ’em and can take the over 37 or under 54. Look for Brandon Marshall and the Broncos running game to play well, but for Peyton to ultimately outduel them.

Prediction: Colts 24 – Broncos 17

Free Pick: Any teaser combination should work here: Colts -0 or Broncos +14, Over 37 or Under 54

NEW YORK JETS -3 @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

We learned last week not to bet against home dogs, except when the home team has their 2 stars out like the Falcons and you can take the Eagles.  Pats, Vikings, Saints, Cowboys all road favorites — all lost. Do you bet against the home dog this week? Tough call. Bucs were flat on the road against the Panthers, but have had some success at home (beating the Packers). Sanchez is out for the Jets, Clemens is in. Who knows what that will mean. I’m skipping this one.

Free Pick: Scratch

BUFFALO BILLS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

The Chiefs were having some success at home (beating the Steelers), but were just blown out by Chargers and then the Broncos. The Bills are incredibly weak though. This is another game that I will just pass over entirely and not look back on.

Free Pick: Scratch

GREEN BAY PACKERS -3 @ CHICAGO BEARS

We learned last week not to bet against home dogs. To reiterate: Pats, Vikings, Saints, Cowboys all road favorites — all lost. I’m loving the Packers right now and the Bears are in a funk. They couldn’t even cover at home against the Rams. They put up 17 points on them. That’s weak. I’m going with the hot team despite the home-dog trend that we saw last week.

Prediction: Packers 24 – Bears 16

Free Pick: Packers -3 (Confidence: 3.5/5)

DETROIT LIONS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS -13.5

I don’t like high spreads. Lions covered the 13.5 they got last week on the road against the Bengals and I think they have a good chance of covering this one.  They’re still the Lions and their run defense blows, so great news if you have Ray Rice on your fantasy team. I think you see the Ravens win this one by 10, but they may win by the 14.  I’m anticipating a Ravens win by 31-17 or 27-17, it’s going to be on the bubble with the spread, so I’m staying away.

Prediction: Ravens 27 or 31 – Lions 17

Free Pick: Too Close To Call

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -3

I had the Dolphins over the Panthers 2 weeks ago and they lost, I had the Patriots over the Dolphins and they won. Tough team to figure out.  They play strong at home, weak on the road. I also had the Texans over the Jags and the Jags won, but when I picked the Jags over the 49ers, the 49ers won. In other words, these two teams drive me crazy. The only way to play them is to take the home team.

Prediction: Jaguars 23 – Dolphins 20

Free Pick: Jaguars -3 (Confidence: 2/5)

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -10 @ ATLANTA FALCONS

No Matt Ryan and Michael Turner for the Falcons so look for the Saints to beet up the Falcons just like the Eagles did last week.

Prediction: Saints 31 – Falcons 10

Free Pick: Saints -10 (Confidence: 3.5/5)

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -13.5

Mr. Brady, how can you throw a pick to Vontae Davis in the end zone that could have gotten you the win and the cover? Weak sauce my friend, weak sauce. You’re certainly not looking like a 4-time Super Bowl winner, so hopefully your last two losses give you the fire in your belling to blow out the Panthers. I think you do see the Pats beat up out the Panthers.

Update: Game will be played in the snow and freezing weather, so the 14 points looks steep.  However, the Pats put up something like 59 points against the Titans whey they played in the snow.  I took this one off my list with the high spread and terrible conditions.

Prediction: Patriots 24 – Panthers 10

Free Pick: Patriots -13.5 (Confidence: 2/5)

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ TENNEESEE TITANS -13

The 1-11 Rams are 6-6 ATS this year. The books are loving them! Despite their 11.6 PPG, they still manage to cover! Unbelievable.  What’s even more impressive? They’re 6-2 ATS in their last 8. I pummeled the Rams for a lot of cash earlier this season, but when I lost a game or two against them, I stayed away from them for the rest of the season. When is the last time the Titans beat a team by more than 13 point? Well, it’s happened twice when they rocked the Bills and rocked the Jaguars, but it doesn’t happen often.  Everyone is thinking Chris Johnson will run for 450 yards and 4 TDs and that may very well happen, but beware of the Rams, they may be a spoiler for those banking on Titans -13. Matt Forte didn’t have a ridiculous game against the Rams. I think you can expect 120 yards for CJ and a TD or two. I think Rams can cover here.

Prediction: Titans 24 – Rams 13

Free Pick: Not Playing This, Just Giving You a Buyer Beware if you take the Titans

WASHINGTON REDSKINS -1 @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

I want to say take the Redskins, but east coast teams struggle out there. Eagles and Bengals have fallen victim to the Raiders in Oakland. That gives me enough reason to stay away here, but for the sake of calling this game, I’m going with the Redskins.

Prediction: Redskins 24 – Raiders 17

Free Pick: Redskins -1 (Confidence: 3/5)

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ DALLAS COWBOYS -3

Tough call here. I want to take the Chargers, but the Cowboys are a completely different team at home. My personal hatred the Cowboys and the fact that they lost to the Giants last week is affecting my judgment here, but I’ll take the field goal. The Chargers are coming on strong and they are focused on the playoffs as the Cowboys’ infamous DECEMBER WOES continue.

Prediction: Chargers 30 – Cowboys 27

Free Pick: Chargers +3 (Confidence: 2.5/5)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ NEW YORK GIANTS -1

I’m hoping the Chargers can top the Cowboys so the Eagles can reclaim sole possession of the NFC East going into week 15. The Eagles beat the Giants earlier this season and beat  the Giants twice last year in the Meadowlands. That makes the Eagles streak against the Giants 3-0. I think they can make it 4.

Free Pick: I’m an Eagles fan, this one is up to you.

ARIZONA CARDINALS -3.5 @ SAN FRANSISCO 49ERS

I said HOME TEAM + MONDAY NIGHT last week and those who took the Packers earned back a little coin.  We learned about not betting against home dogs last week, but just because you see a home dog does not give you a reason to take them (See the Broncos last week over the Chiefs and of course, the Eagles over the Falcons). The Cardinals are playing great right now and the 49ers just aren’t up to par with them yet even though they beat them in week 1, but that was a long time ago.

Prediction: Cardinals 27 – 49ers 17

Free Pick: Cardinals -3 (Buy the half-point if you’re able to) (Confidence: 3/5)

TOP 5 SPREADS:

I don’t like this week’s card very much, but at least we don’t have to bet against many home dogs.

I didn’t put much thought into this order.  You’re going to get some hits and misses. I think you’ll get 3 winners out of that bunch, but I would obviously love 4 or 5.

1.) Saints -10 over FALCONS

1.) Packers -3 over BEARS

2.) VIKINGS -6.5 over Bengals

3.) TEXANS -6 over Seahawks

4.) Cardinals -3 over 49ERS

TEASERS:

1.) Saints -3 and Vikings +0.5

2.) Saints -3 and Colts

3.) Saints -3 and Ravens -6.5

4.) Chargers +10 and Packers +4



21 Responses to NFL Week 14 Predictions, Pick Against the Spread:

  1. mike

    Date: Dec 10, 2009 at 12:48 pm

    Be careful tonight teasing the over, I think you should do the under at 40 instead.

    Tonight they are predicting snow with heavy winds. It might get so bad that the passing game is almost impossible.this happened before with new england and the bills and the final was 13-0.

  2. JL

    Date: Dec 10, 2009 at 1:24 pm

    I’m with you Mike, with the predicted weather conditions I’m more comfortable with teasing at under 40. I’ll wait until close to game time though for “current” weather conditions.

  3. JL

    Date: Dec 10, 2009 at 1:28 pm

    VM, why is it that for some games one side costs extra juice? Is that how books try to force more money to the other side?

  4. Vegas Martin

    Date: Dec 10, 2009 at 1:33 pm

    I agree with you with the under. I didn’t know it was snowing tonight. The under 40 looks safer to me. The Browns shouldn’t score more than 10. The Steelers should be held under 30.

    Some teams are more juice since more bets are placed on that side, so it’s a incentive to take the other side. You will see it more from -110, -115, -120 and after that point, the line will likely move a half-point.

  5. Dan

    Date: Dec 10, 2009 at 1:51 pm

    What’re your thoughts on the Saints Atlanta +9.5 game? Are you waiting on the status of Ryan?

  6. Vegas Martin

    Date: Dec 10, 2009 at 5:04 pm

    I just checked the forecast for tonight. The under 40.5 points is practically a lock.

    -8 DEGREES WITH THE WIND CHILL

    50% CHANCE OF SNOW (Just about an inch though)

    20-30 MPH WINDS WITH 40 MPH GUSTS

    You will not see many passes tonight my friends. Expect a lot of running, which will kill the clock. Expect missed field goals. Botched punts and general ugliness. The only thing that can cause the over to hit is if a big run is broken or there’s a kickoff return. Even for these teams to kick field goals, they’re going to have to get to the 20 since anything past the 25 will likely be missed.

    Tonight’s Play: Steelers -2, Under 40.5

    I would be surprised if this one goes over 30. Could be a 10-6 game in my opinion. 20-10 is the max.

    Dan, I didn’t see the line out due to Ryan’s injury. I like the Saints -9.5 a lot if Ryan is out. Atlanta gives up a lot of points.

  7. Vegas Martin

    Date: Dec 10, 2009 at 5:06 pm

    Little FYI for all of you commenterss, I added a subscribe to comments feature if you want to be notified via e-mail when new comments are posted. Hope you enjoy. Good luck tonight and this weekend.

  8. Wood

    Date: Dec 10, 2009 at 9:02 pm

    Any thoughts on any kind of a possible 3 team parlay or probably not as this weeks games really don’t look good to you?

  9. Mike

    Date: Dec 10, 2009 at 9:43 pm

    WTF Pittsburgh sucks my balls.

    I am starting to lose any respect I ever had for Pittsburgh down 13-0 at the half.

  10. VINCE

    Date: Dec 11, 2009 at 11:32 am

    HEY VM

    Curious are you going to put up anything for basketball or hockey? Any suggestions on some of these games this weekend. Thanks Vince

  11. Dan

    Date: Dec 12, 2009 at 2:40 pm

    The weather in New England is suppose to be pretty nasty this weekend, mid 30’s – late afternoon rain and or sleet.

    Brady is listed as questionable with injuries to his shoulder, ribs, and finger.

    Coach sent home a handful of players who were late to an 8am meeting bc of weather….(2 of which were prime time guys).

    Adaleus Thomas has publicly doubted his Head Coaches “motivational tactics”.

    My question is this….despite your facts on the Pats blowing out teams after two consecutive losses, wouldnt all the issues listed above (along with giving 13.5 points) be a reason to lesson your confidence or even take the Panthers to cover? When you listed your analysis did you consider any of these ideas, just curious……thanks for your help!

  12. livinitup

    Date: Dec 12, 2009 at 4:33 pm

    No Delhomme for the Panthers this week being replaced by Matt Moore. Even though there’s going to be a heavy dose of Williams and Stewart there’s not going to be much of a threat for passing the ball. Which means the Pats will probably be heavily focused on stopping the run. Especially with the conditions you listed previously. But on the flip side, all the factors you listed about the Pats. This game has the makings of something very sloppy. Both teams don’t seam to be a good bet at this point.

  13. Vegas Martin

    Date: Dec 13, 2009 at 1:34 am

    Nope… didn’t consider any of that… just that the Panthers pretty much blow. I’m not saying take the Patriots — in fact, I completely removed them from my list of games to consider. I’m just not going to roll the dice on a terrible QB on the road and in the snow just cuz he’s getting 13.5 points.

  14. Vegas Martin

    Date: Dec 13, 2009 at 11:12 am

    1:00 Play — I really like Saints -3 teased with another game. I went with Vikings, who I think will rebound at home. You could also go with the Colts -0.5, Packers +3, or Texans -0. Saints -10 looks like a good bet as well, but the teasers have been working well for me. Falcons are without Matt Ryan and Michael Turner again and their D gives up a lot of points.

    4:00 Play — I’ll likely go with Chargers +3.5 or tease it to Chargers +10.5, Over 41.5

    8:00 Play — Obviously just want to put a SMALL bet on my Eagles tonight. BIG GAME!

  15. Mike

    Date: Dec 13, 2009 at 10:55 pm

    Yeah I made some serious bank by taking the Chargers straight up. I really don’t see how Dallas can be favored when they blow in December.

    I also threw something really small on Philly to make it interesting but I want to enjoy the game more and I have Mcnabb and Jackson on my fantasy team :)

  16. Vegas Martin

    Date: Dec 14, 2009 at 12:20 am

    Well played Mike. Some nice hits today with the Chargers, Eagles, Texans, Packers, and Vikings. I love days like today!

  17. mike

    Date: Dec 14, 2009 at 11:20 am

    What do u think about tonights game if you had to pick? I like arizona but they scare me sometimes when they are not on

  18. Vegas Martin

    Date: Dec 14, 2009 at 12:17 pm

    I like the Cardinals. 49ers have cooled off a bit and the Cardinals got hotter and are focused on the playoffs.

  19. Huskers#1

    Date: Dec 14, 2009 at 7:59 pm

    I like the cardinals and the overs, thinkin a parlay

  20. livinitup

    Date: Dec 15, 2009 at 12:50 am

    I know hindsight is 20/20 but that was a trap game for the cards. Fresh off a big win against the Vikes and then they lay an egg against the 9ers.

  21. billy

    Date: Dec 15, 2009 at 12:52 am

    Guys been in big trouble recently you know any sure bets i can hit on for this week

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