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NFL Week 16 Picks Against the Spread

Posted by in NFL General on December 24th, 2009 | 18 Comments

Normally I would do the analysis on every NFL game, but I’m running short on time with Christmas coming up and there just aren’t many good spreads this week.

I hit 4/4 picks last night at THE ONETIMER for 6 units of profit and we’re back in the black in the NHL. Merry Christmas to you if you took down those picks!  My NHL mojo is coming back to me, but sometimes you get hot and sometimes you get cold in the NHL.  These days, I’m taking more games where I’m giving up the goal-and-a-half for better odds rather than laying down the extra cheddar on the moneyline and I’ve been hitting those picks.

Here is what I like in the NFL this week:

1.) PHILADELPHIA -7 over Denver — Denver is a bit of a fraud.  They were killed by the Colts despite Brandon Marshall’s 21 receptions, 200 yards, and 2 TDs, and they just lost home to the RAIDERS.  If you lose at home to the Raiders, you are a pretender, not a contender.  Yes, the Eagles also lost to the Raiders, but that was in the beginning of the season, and that was when they were on the road I and I said “watch out since the Eagles sometimes play awful when they travel out west.”  The Eagles have won 5 in a row now and there’s no reason for them not to make it 6.  They’re hot right now and no team plays better December football than the Eagles.  The return of Brian Dawkins will be an emotional moment for me.  I, of course, am a diehard Eagles fan, so of course I’m picking them.

2.) COLTS -3 over Jets (1st Half Line) — Expect the Colts to dominate the Jets when their starters are in there for the first half.  I think you stick to the 1st half line since Peyton may be pulled in the 2nd half and that could allow the Jets to get back in there in the 2nd half and potentially cover with the 5.5 points.

3.) Dallas -6.5 over REDSKINS — After seeing the Redskins heartless performance last week, I don’t see how anyone can think the Redskins rebound after that one.  But sometimes crazy things happen in the world of sports.  Like calling the worst trick play that ever existed twice in a row.

4.) BROWNS -3 over Raiders — After seeing the Browns beat the Steelers, I rode their coat tails with a win over the Chiefs and I think they can beat the Raiders at home.  Their D plays better at home and Joshua Cribbs is has been Filthy McNasty.

5.) Vikings -7 over BEARS — The Bears are horrendous.  I thought last week could be a spot where you could take the points and get a chance for the cover.  I didn’t take the game, but that was my pick for the game.  They just got killed by the Ravens.  Their team is in disarray.  The Vikings should rebound after last week’s loss.  They need this one to secure that first-round bye. We typically like home teams on Monday night, but that kept me out of last week’s play on the Giants even though I loved the Giants. I didn’t want to bet against the home dog since the week before, the Cardinals got dogged by the 49ers on Monday Night.  The Bears, like the Redskins, should be a team you’re safe betting against in prime-time games.  I’ll also be a big Bears fan on Monday Night with the hopes that the Eagles could steal away that first-round bye.

6.) Jacksonville +8 over PATRIOTS — I had to find a game that I like with the points for the hell of picking out a game where I like the points.  I just think the Jaguars match up well with the Patriots and this should be a fairly tight game with not many scores like the Bills vs. Patriots game from last week.  Pats have been committing to the run lately and that’s been eating clock. Jags should be able to move the ball well on the ground as well.  I never like betting on the Jaguars and by no means is this my stamp of approval to take them, but this is kind of like a random call just for the hell of making it.  Patriots win, Jags cover.  24-17.

Games to Avoid: I want to take Chargers +3 over Tennessee, but that one gets passed on due to the Chargers having to play on the road on Christmas.  I don’t like that combo.  Remember the Giants on Turkey Day?  Horrendous.  Dolphins/Texans and Steelers/Ravens are toss ups.

18 Responses to NFL Week 16 Picks Against the Spread:

  1. Dan

    Date: Dec 25, 2009 at 11:54 am

    Whats everyone thoughts on the game tongiht? Ive been betting the Chargers all year….Ive won with them and lot with them. Im thinking about taking Titans tongiht. Its a holliday home prime time game for them and theyll be fighting for playoffs. But the Chargers are obviously dangerous which makes me nervous. Staying away may make the most sense, but thats not much fun!


  2. Vegas Martin

    Date: Dec 25, 2009 at 1:20 pm

    I’m not touching tonights game. I would take the Chargers if this game wasn’t on Christmas. I just think a road team that has to travel a significant distance on Christmas will not have them completely focused and they will slack off. I’m leaning towards the Titans, but do not want to bet against a team as hot as the Chargers just incase the thesis proves to be wrong. I just think you see a performance similar to the Giants when they played out in Denver on Thanksgiving.

  3. Mike

    Date: Dec 25, 2009 at 3:22 pm

    I love the Chargers as well. I am a Miami fan and I saw the Titans game and they imploded to let Miami back into the game. I really don’t fully trust the Titans to go in and beat an excellent game.

  4. Dan

    Date: Dec 25, 2009 at 4:02 pm

    Thanks guys. Mike, how are you guys feeling about the Miami – Teaxans game this weekend. I know if should be close but ‘whatifsports’ is calling Miami -3 the lock of the week. I like there chances to, hows the vibe in Miami?

  5. Vegas Martin

    Date: Dec 25, 2009 at 4:09 pm

    Lock of the week? That’s bold. Miami has been dominant at home, but I’m concerned they’ll have a tough time containing Andre Johnson and the Texan’s passing game. I put this game right in the 50/50 category. Flip a coin to determine the winner in that one.

  6. Mike

    Date: Dec 26, 2009 at 2:46 pm

    The lock of the week was last night in the Chargers game. The Titans defense is very spotty and Mr. Scolding Hot Rivers destroyed them off the field.

    I am a Miami fan and I am more nervous this week then next week. I think we can contain Pittsburgh but Andre Johnson against our 2 inexperienced corners, don’t know about that. They have played great this year, but its not everyday you play someone like Johnson.

  7. Vegas Martin

    Date: Dec 27, 2009 at 1:46 am

    Like I said. I loved SD, but had to pass due to the road game on Christmas. Can’t lose what you don’t put in the pot. I cleaned up in NHL today. Went 5/5. Well positioned for Sunday.

  8. Mike

    Date: Dec 27, 2009 at 9:49 am

    On Sportsbook the Jaguars are getting +10 now. I think I will definetly take that :)

  9. Vegas Martin

    Date: Dec 27, 2009 at 12:29 pm

    I think that is a great grab Mike. Good luck.

  10. Vegas Martin

    Date: Dec 27, 2009 at 3:04 pm

    Sorry those Jags were so awful. Didn’t expect that kind of beat down. Looked like the best game on the card to take some points. This is why I never take the Jags. They’re just a wild card. You never know what you’re gonna get from them.

    On the positive side, thanks to R. Moss’s 3 TDs, I may end up winning my fantasy football finals matchup.

  11. Mike

    Date: Dec 27, 2009 at 5:23 pm

    LOL I won a ton of money this week on the saints. I threw some bank on the spread and then I threw money on Tampa Bay straight up.

    New Orleans has been my cash cow the last 8 weeks betting against them, they never cover. I only took the bet straight up when I read the article on how the Bucs usually win in Saints Stadium.

    At least it makes up for Jaguars and Giants showing they cannot win when it counts.

  12. Dan

    Date: Dec 29, 2009 at 10:21 am

    Another brutal week…..(for me at least). Anyone want to try and finish out this season in a strong way?? I need to make up some ground before going into the playoffs. Is the final regular week of the season usually the hardest to pick ats?

  13. Vegas Martin

    Date: Dec 29, 2009 at 10:25 am

    I finished about even going 3-2. The Eagles loss hurt. They were up by 17! They insist on making almost every game close. Took down the Colts 1st half line, Cowboys, and Browns. Only wagered a little on Monday night since I don’t like betting against home dogs and we saw once again why you just can’t do it. Where have the Bears been all season? Even though I lost a minor amount on that game, I still liked the outcome since now the Eagles are in control of their own destiny for the 2nd seed in the East. Cowboys vs. Eagles next week is going to be sick! Better luck next week.

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