I’m not going to pretend I did much homework on these games. I’m just scanning through the lines and point out what I find attractive. Here are some of my week 5 college football picks that I will want to look into later.
Week 5 Games I Like:
MARYLAND (-8.5) over Duke — I love betting against Duke with their terrible defense.
Temple (-6) over ARMY — Wins over respectable Connecticut and Central Michigan. They had Penn State on their heels in the first half of that game until Penn State fought back in the 2nd half. They’re a solid team. Brandon is leaning Army here at home, so you may want to go the other way.
Georgia Tech (-10) over WAKE FOREST — I played FSU (-18) over WF last week and won comfortably. Wake Forest’s D is a joke, they give up 40 points per game, which is why I love betting against them.
Game to Watch This Weekend:
Oklahoma (-3.5) vs. Texas — The Red-River Rivaly! Texas is the team that I enjoy following, but they’ve been disappointing this year. Their offense is slacking. Oklahoma’s D has struggled though so who knows what happens in this one. I would take Oklahoma, but I’m pulling for Texas.
Miami (-3) @ Clemson — Nice ACC battle.
Arizona State @ Oregon State (-3.5) — Watch two great Pac 10 offenses battle it out.
Notre Dame (-3) @ Boston College — Classic Catholic School Battle! ND is due for a win right? BC has a great run D though.
Stanford @ Oregon (-4.5) — Do you like offense? Tune in.
We’re back with our 4:00 picks. If you saw yesterday’s week 4 1:00 picks you saw that I’m high on the Atlanta Falcons (-7) over the San Fransisco 49ers. I also like the Tennessee Titans (-6.5) over the Denver Broncos, but I took some flak on that pick. The spread is steep and Kyle Orton has been as good as any QB in the league this year. You say Kyle Orton and I say Courtland Finnegan and Michael Griffin. Onto the week 4 picks.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-7) @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
I took the Eagles last week and took them pretty big so it was a glorious win for me and it was also great to see Michael Vick just dominate (highlights at the end). The popular pick here is the Colts seeing how they bounced back after their Texans loss with two double-digit wins over the Giants and Broncos. Everyone is going to think that they can do it again. I’m slightly hesitant because the Jags always keep it close with the Colts. Last year the Colts vs. Jags games were 35-31 and 14-12. Garrard is playing like crap though with a 66.7 QB rating on the year and Maurice Jone-Drew has been locked up and hasn’t seen the end zone once this year (true story). The Jags have also given up a ton of points. They generate zero pass rush and they can’t cover. That spells disaster if you’re playing Peyton Manning. I’m expecting Manning to have a field day here while the Jaguars continue to struggle to find points. Jags are the home dog and maybe they’re due to “bounce back,” but I don’t see it happening. This Jaguars team …
I'm liking ATL (-7) over SF and TEN (-6.5) over DEN this week at 1:00. An ATL/TEN teaser looks promising.
The theme of week 1 was don’t bet against home dogs, we cleaned up in week 2 with two home winners (GB and ATL), then last week we felt the wrath of the road dogs. Road dogs went 7-1 ATS. My 1:00 play was the Ravens (-11) which missed by 4. At 4:00 I chose to bet against the Jaguars at home and took my team the Philadelphia Eagles (-3) because I was that damn confident in Michael Vick and it made up for the Ravens loss. If I didn’t play the Eagles, I would have taken the Colts, which I plugged so hopefully you found some winners on Sunday. I also told you so stay away from the MNF game which was golden advice. Let’s week what games are in tap in week 4.
DENVER BRONCOS @ TENNESSEE TITANS (-6.5)
I’ll definitely pick the Titans here. I don’t see the Broncos having an answer for Chris Johnson and when the Titans have been forced to throw the ball, Vince Young has done very well. Young hasn’t had to throw the ball more than 20 times in a game this season thanks to CJ. Other than the Pittsburgh loss, he posted QB ratings of 105 and 142. I expect another solid game while CJ carries the offense to another W at home. Titans D has also been very strong and should give the Broncos fits. Denver is disadvantaged with the long road trip and playing at 1:00. West coast teams struggle on the road in 1:00 games and I love playing that angle and will have more to say on …
We have a Big 12 match-up Thursday night with two undefeated teams. Both teams were on a bye week last week and it will be their first conference game. The past two meeting have been very high scoring, and Oklahoma State has come out on top in both winning 56-28 (as a 26 point favorite) and then winning last season 36-31 (as a 5 point favorite, pushing).
The Oklahoma State offense is too much for the Aggies' defense.
Both teams have very efficient offenses, as Oklahoma State actually ranks 2nd in the nation in passing yards this season. Oklahoma state crushed Tulsa in their last game 65-28, accumulating 722 total yards on offense, over half of those throwing the ball. Texas A&M snuck by Florida International 27-20 being a 29 point favorite, obviously not covering that spread due to the fact that they turned the ball over five times that game. Speaking of spreads, both teams are currently 2-1 ATS this season.
Texas A&M ranks 10th in the nation on defense, and will definitely have their hands full in this one. They have a great rush D, but are ranked 50th in the nation in pass D. QB Brandon Weeden for OK State is on absolute fire throwing 6 TDs with 0 INTs against Tulsa in their last contest. I hope OK State sees those stats and throws the ball all night. I don’t see them giving the ball to Kendall Hunter too much.
Texas A&M’s quarterback Jerrod Johnson is coming off a game where he threw the ball to the other team four times! Talk about having no confidence entering Thursday. OK State did let Tulsa get their passing yards, so maybe …
It's going to be a battle of two gunslingers tonight!
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-3) @ CHICAGO BEARS
Tonight is Monday Night Football and it’s time for a classic NFC North matchup as the Chicago Bears host the Green Bay Packers. Both teams are 2-0 to start the season. Bears come into this one 1-1 ATS, failing to cover at home against the Lions and following that up with a route over the Cowboys on the road. The Packers come in at 2-0 ATS with dominating wins over the Eagles and Bills.
As I keep exhausting ad naseum, beware of home dogs. Home dogs are 3-4 ATS this week and somewhere in the range of 9-6-3 ATS in the first two weeks. These low spreads a la Redskins (-3.5) @ Rams and 49ers (-2.5) @ Chiefs lure you in and that’s how the books will trap you. However, there are plenty of road favorites who came through this past week if you were fortunate enough to take the Eagles, Colts, Bengals, or Steelers.
I’m going to take the Packers here. They are just way too talented. Not only do they have a top 5 offense, but I would also place their defense in the top 5. They are a championship caliber team and seeing how the Saints have started this season, I think there is room to even argue that the Packers are currently the best team in the National Football League.
I am that high on the Packers after seeing first hand how their defensive players fly around. Not only do the Pack have A.J. Hawk and Nick Barnett to tie down their LBs, but they added Clay Matthews on the outside who has been an absolute beast to …
Road dogs screwed a lot of people going 7-1 ATS, while the home dogs go 3-4.
Yesterday was rather uneventful. My two “big games” were 1-1. I played the Ravens (-11) and Eagles (-3). Since I split those and hit two out of three from Saturday, I decided to place a small bet on the Sunday Night game just so the day wasn’t so boring coming out as a split. Good thing I kept that play small as I suggested since the Dolphins didn’t get the job done at home as I had anticipated.
Home teams has been my theme throughout the season and a lot of road dogs came out on top this week, going 7-1 ATS. Road dogs who covered this week: Jets, Cowboys, Falcons, Titans, Raiders, Browns, and Bills. 4 outright winners. 7 winners against the spread. Sole road dog that didn’t cover was the Lions (didn’t cover by 1 point). You do not see that often gentlemen.
Thanks to a handful of home dogs, I stayed away from most games just to see how well the home dogs would do this week. Like I said, this week will be our “experimental week.” The home dogs turned out to be 3-4 ATS. I’m sure the books are happy with that since the flood of money that was placed on Redskins, Chargers, and 49ers went to them. I at least warned you about those home dogs so hopefully you averted some losses if you were eying up those teams. I was lucky enough to play the Eagles (-3), who made up for the Ravens not covering the 11 points against the Browns. I was also high on the Bengals and Colts and …
Thanks to the Eagles (-3), I was able to make up some ground where the Ravens left me short ATS. I’m not crazy about tonight’s game. Tonight we have the Miami Dolphins (-2) hosting the New York Jets Sunday night with the over/under at 35.5. I’m going to make a small play on a teaser of Dolphins (+5) and Under 42.5. I’m going to keep it small. Not a pick that I love, but the Eagles made up some ground and I’m looking to keep that going. I’m expecting a tight boring defensive game.
Why do I like Miami? It’s in Miami, Revis is out, Calvin Pace is out, and Braylon Edwards got a DUI (team distraction).
Prediction: Dolphins 16 – Jets 13
Tonight’s Play: Teaser Miami (+5), Under 42.5 (Confidence: 2.5/5)
Site Note: Although we played the Eagles. The home dog theory turned out to be legit. You couldn’t say we didn’t warn the people who played the Redskins, 49ers, and Chargers. 3 defeats via home dogs when nobody saw it coming. Eagles, Steelers, Colts, and Bengals topped the home dogs though. Home dogs were 3-4 ATS this week. Like I said, it’s just something that must be considered.
Go watch Kenny Powers instead. Tonight. HBO. 10:30.
Loading ...