Archive for September, 2010

Can Vick lead the Eagles past the Jags?

The Ravens pick didn’t go as well as it did in my head. It was looking good when the Ravens jumped out to a 14-3 lead thanks to 2 Anquan Boldin TDs, but then the Ravens offense failed them. They couldn’t convert some key 3rd downs and the Browns got the ball and put some nice drives together despite the losses of Delhomme, Jerome Harrison, and Robiskie.

Cleveland didn’t turn over the ball as I thought they would and they controlled the clock. Like I said, be weary of high spreads, but I wasn’t going to take any road teams after their disastrous start to the season. Didn’t think the Browns offense could handle the Ravens D, especially without some key players, and thought the Browns horrendous D would show up once again on the road.

With the Ravens up 21-17, there’s a still a shot at covering with 9 minutes left, but they need a TD for the push. Time for that turnover that’s due. Wallace fumbles, but recovers at CLE’s 3 to set up a 3rd and 28, so there is still a shot here.

All 1:00 games seamed to play out as a 50/50 percent chance of either team covering. Only clear winner was Steelers over Bucs. Kansas City also dominated their game against San Fransisco, leading 24-3 in the 3rd. There’s no way anyone thought the Chiefs could put up 24 points against the Niners. No one. As I said, if the Chiefs come out on top, you know just how big the home-dog factor has played out this season, but the Steelers came out on top against the home dog Bucs. Gauging what will happen on Sunday …

Ravens baby... Ravens!

Hope everyone had a nice college Saturday going into NFL Sunday. I had two nice hits thanks to Nevada (-4) and Stanford (-4.5). My other play on Saturday was South Carolina (+3). South Carolina had 4 turnovers in the 4th quarter after being in the driver’s seat the entire game and failed to cover. It was the right pick, but I guess you can’t win ’em all. I’ll take two out of three any day. Those were the three games that I played on Saturday.

I also recommended Kansas and Florida State in my write up and those picks hit. There were also some other heartbreakers mixed in those picks. Good thing I played TCU (-18) small on Friday since they won by 17 points after the extra point on TCU’s last TD was missed. That wasn’t fixed, right? Oregon also missed the -11.5 cover by a half point. I also kept everyone away from Alabama (-7). I should have even come out a said that Arkansas (+7) was the play, but not many people have made a living betting against college football’s best teams. Ohio State also covered the 42.5 points against Eastern Michigan, 73-20.

Enough about college football. Today I’m liking the Ravens (-11) at 1:00. The line opened at -11, which is where I grabbed it, but has moved to -12.5. Why do I like the Ravens? Well I’m not going to be crazy enough to put my money on any road favorites. There’s over a half dozen home dogs this week, so we’ll really see how well the home dog theory works out.

What worked last week? Home teams, home teams, home teams. We played Atlanta (-6.5) and Green Bay …

Kentucky Wildcats @ Florida Gators

Yes, Joey G is back for yet another over/under prediction. Now knock on wood, but I have not been incorrect with any of my over/under predictions thus far since joining the pass rush. I see an easy over tonight with Kentucky and Florida.

Florida hosts Kentucky tonight at 7pm.

Kentucky has stayed over 200 yards in both their passing and rushing game in each of their first three games. They have yet to turn the ball over this season. Florida, on the other hand, has been absolutely lost on offense. They looked as if they were going to lose to Miami (OH) in their opening game of the season! The only thing that they have going for them right now is their defense. They are making their opponents turn the ball over four times a game. Making Miami turn the ball over four times in their opener is what handed them that victory.

Kentucky has not been challenged too much on offense yet this year but they are putting up some stats that I am sure they are happy with. If Florida can keep up their “high turnover” mentality this season, let’s just hope it happens on the opponent’s side of the field. I see this one going over, and pretty easily.

Key Trends:

• Kentucky over is 4-0 in their last four coming off of a win.
• Kentucky over is 10-1 in their last 11 coming off a game where they covered the spread.
• Kentucky over is 5-2 in last seven conference games.
• Florida over is 4-1 in last five games.
• Florida over is 4-1 in last five as a favorite.
• Florida over is 4-1 in last five coming off of a win.

Play on …

Well I had a rough Thursday night. Pitt looked like THE worst team in CFB, total opposite of what they looked like against Utah. I am sorry for that pick I wrote about. Forgive me. But I hope you did play on Joey G’s UNDER, contrarily to what many of you thought, which hit easily.

Last Sunday in my ‘Small Play’ article I went 3-1-0 with the only loss coming as the Giants got smacked by Peyton and Co. I feel as if I know the NFL much better than CFB, so I will not make any CFB picks but stay with the NFL. I am putting this article out a little earlier than usual so you can soak in my picks and take some winners. I am most confident in my first two plays, but I like them all.

1) Play on the UNDER 33 in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Pittsburgh Steelers game.Both offenses are terrible and Pitt has their third string QB starting the game. LOSER

2) Play on the UNDER 37 in the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens game. Look for Baltimore to score more points with their defense this week than their offense, especially with Seneca Wallace getting the start. This is one of my most confident picks of the season so far. Me and JOEY G both love this under. Take it. LOSER

3) Play on the Atlanta Falcons (+3.5) against the N.O. Saints. Atlanta’s defense has been very impressive so far this year, look for them to cause problems for Drew Brees and his offense. I bet not too many of you like this pick, and that’s exactly why I do. I just told Joey G about my pick, he gave me the …

Some big over/under plays for 1:00 Week 3 of the NFL.

I hope you guys enjoyed three free winners this past week in the NFL. Cincinnati and Baltimore wasn’t even close. The Jets helped push the over with their fourth quarter touchdown. And thanks to the game winning field goal by New Orleans as time expired they were able to push it over the total by a few points. I also threw in an under in the Carolina/Tampa Bay game that hit, which made me 4-0-0 on the week in over/under calls.

Once again, I’m going to base my picks off of the trend. It seemed to work last week so why not try it again this week?

Look for a low scoring affair between these two teams on Sunday.

I’ve been researching all day on some of the most popular trends, and trends that are going to give us some winners.

Let’s take a look:

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens:

Key Trends:

• Cleveland under is 4-0 in their last four played in September.
• Cleveland under is 4-1-1 when a road dog of 10.5+ points.
• Baltimore under is 5-1-1 in their last seven games.
• Baltimore under is 12-3 in last 15 games played as a favorite.
• Baltimore under is 8-3 in last 11 home games.
• Baltimore under is 9-2-1 in last 12 against AFC opponents.

Play on under (37)

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots

Key Trends:

• Buffalo under is 4-0 in last four road games.
• Buffalo under is 5-0 in last five games as the underdog.
• Buffalo under is 6-1 in last seven games.
• Buffalo under is 4-1 in last five against an AFC opponent.
• New England under is 4-0-1 in last five games as a favorite of 10.5

Question: Which RBs do I start in week 3?

Here’s my squad.

Marques Colston
Santana Moss
Mark Clayton
Hakeem Nicks
Jeremy Maclin

I’m favoring them in that order. I just can’t decide because if I bench Hakeem Nicks, he’s going to get another 4 touchdowns and Jeremy Maclin is probably going to have the game of his career. I’ve tanked to 4th place and I’m playing the #1 guy in our league and I want to dominate this game.

Answer:

Are you serious? Benching Nicks and Maclin for Santana Moss and Mark Clayton? That’s nonsense. You have to start Colston, Nicks, and Macline. That is a hell of a WR group.

What do you think? Answer below!…

Tom Brady: "Iceman (sniff, sniff), you stink."

I’m trying out something new this week and that’s breaking up my picks into 1:00 games and 4:00 games. We covered 1:00 games yesterday, let’s see what’s good at 4:00.  We have 4 more home dogs coming up at 4:00, so the home dog theory is in full effect this week. Let’s see how it works out in week 3. I’m picking against all of them which may make me look like a genius or idiot. We shall see. I’m not sure if any are worth a shot for my money, but you’ll have to decide on that. Proceed with caution gentlemen. This time slot’s theme? TOP GUN. Highway to the Danger Zone music video is after the jump for your enjoyment.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (-3.5) @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

You see over and over again, absurdly low spreads when road teams are favored. Why is this? To sucker people like you in. Everyone is going to be taking the Redskins here. How can you not like the Skins against the Rams, right? They have a very good defense. Sure that gave up 30 the Texans including 20 in the second half, but the Texans are a top 5 offense in the NFL thanks to Andre Johnson, who had 12 receptions for 158 yards in that contest. I can understand the books expecting the Redskins to come out flat after last week’s tough loss, but I expect Donovan McNabb to pick apart the Rams defense while the Rams’ Sam Bradford struggles against a typically tough defense. Bradford has posted QB ratings of 53 and 86 so far this year and has 3 TDs to 4 INTs, but really should only have 3 INTs …