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Week 4 College Football Picks Against the Spread

Posted by in College Football Picks on September 21st, 2010 | Comment »
Weel 4 College Football Picks

Here are some week 4 college picks which caught my eye.

I already posted my two cents to Brandon’s week 4 college picks and we covered a lot of ground this week. As I mentioned there, Brandon and I really like Nevada (-4) and South Carolina (+3). I’m just going to scan through the rest of the spreads and see if anything excites me. Like I mention at the end, this is based off a quick scan so make sure you do your own due diligence before taking any of these picks.

We start of Thursday Night with Miami Hurricanes (-3.5) @ Pittsburgh Panthers. My first impression was Hurricanes, but you know the story — don’t bet against a home dogs in a primetime games (e.g., 49ers cover against Saints). However, college football is different. We played against 3 home dogs last week and we brought home the bacon in all three — Alabama (-23.5) over Duke, Boise State (-24) over Wyoming, and Nebraska (-3.5) over Washington. This is a pretty even matchup if you ask me although I give the edge to Miami. They have the better defense. I think this one ends up a 24-21 or 24-17 game with two respectable defenses. The  under 50.5 looks good.  The under 57.5 looks like an absolute lock if you want to tease that up to take the under and then take Miami at +3.5 or Pitt +10.5 depending on your stance. That’s your call.

I think you can take a shot on TCU (-18) over SMU Friday Night as a small play. TCU is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 and 6-2 ATS on Friday nights. This one is at SMU, but no biggie. SMU’s offense hasn’t been bad, but I think you see TCU end up winning 38-17, 41-20, in that ballpark area. TCU topped them 39-14 last year.

I like Kansas State (-7) over Central Florida. Kansas State has gotten off to a nice 3-0 start with wins and covers over UCLA and Iowa State. They’ve averaged over 400 yards of offense and 35 PPG. Central Florida lost to NC State 28-21 and beat a poor Buffalo team by a mere score of 24-10. Don’t underestimate Central Florida too much here, they’re a decent team with a respectable defense, but Kansas State looks like the play at home.

We then get to a the big Alabama (-7) @ Arkansas game. As you know, I’ve road Alabama the last two weeks to two sweet wins. I’m going to pass over this one because Arkansas has a strong team and will be playing at home. Alabama has Arkansas, Florida, and South Carolina coming up. Talk about a tough stretch. I think there’s a chance you see Alabama drop one of those games. I’m going to pass on Alabama this week.

Another big matchup this week is Stanford (-4.5) @ Notre Dame. Stanford has been looking extremely impressive. Notre Dame is coming off two tough losses to Michigan and Michigan State. They have a solid team, but haven’t been able to come out on top in those two contests. I passed on the Michigan game since I didn’t want to bet against the Irish at home. Do I want to take a shot on betting against them this week? Are they “due for a win”? Stanford’s offense has just been insane and their QB Andrew Luck is playing out of his mind with 10 TDs and 0 INTs this season. Granted, it’s been against Mickey Mouse defenses, but he’s going to be the #2 QB taken behind Jake Locker next year. I think Stanford (-4.5) is the play as I see them winning this one 31-20/34-24 and possibly even more. However, I’m always weary of betting against the Irish at home. Notre Dame’s D has given up an average of 443 yards per game this season. They have some defensive issues they’ll need to address if they want a shot at beating Stanford and I just don’t see it happening.

Florida State (-18) over Wake Forest. Another terrible defense in the NCAA (instead of Duke) is Wake Forest. They gave up 68 points to Stanford and 58 points to Duke. With FSU coming off a strong 34-10 win over BYU after getting demolished by Oklahoma, I think you can see another strong home outing from the Seminoles. Florida State topped Wake Forest 41-28 last season. Wake Forest was able to hang with Miami and Georgia Tech though last year, losing by 1 and 3 respectively. You’ll find that their offense can keep them in it. I’m expecting FSU’s offense to score at their will. Final score looks to be in the 41-20 area, so I may be cutting it close with the spread.

Kansas (-22) over New Mexico State. I love betting against NMS when the line is favorable. They’re 1-8 (3-6 ATS) in their last 9. They lost to San Diego State by 20 and UTEP by 32. No offense and poor defense. Kansas was able to top Georgia Tech at home 35-28, but lost to North Dakota State 6-3 and Southern Miss 31-16. With NMS giving up an average of 529 YPG and allowing 41 PPG while their offense only averages 15 PPG, I think you can expect Kansas to cover the number. Kansas should win this one by a score of 35-10, 38-13. Although Kansas is 2-10 ATS in their last 12, they’re 8-1 ATS when facing a team with a losing record.

UTEP (-10.5) over Memphis. UTEP has a strong offense that has averaged 32 PPG this year while Memphis has given up 38 PPG. Memphis is 1-9 in their last 10 (2-8 ATS). UTEP is coming off a 42-10 win over New Mexico State. Memphis got the best of UTEP last year winning 35-20 in Memphis. Look for UTEP to come out on top in this one.

Oregon (-11.5) over Arizona State. Oregon has been unreal this year. They topped Arizona State 44-21 last year. I don’t see why this one should be any different. Oregon State coming off an easy 72-0 win while Ariz0na State had to battle it out on the road against a tough Wisconsin team and falling a point short. This could be another one of those “hangover” games where they still haven’t got off the crushing defeat to a good team last week.

Just a reminder that all of these games are based off a quick scan of the spreads. I didn’t do a ton of homework like I did for last week’s picks in Alabama, Duke, and Arizona. Therefore, make sure you do your own due diligence before taking any of these recommendations. I would also love to get Brandon and Joey G’s thoughts on any of these picks if any games jump out at them.

Good luck gentlemen. NFL picks should be released tomorrow.

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