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Chicago Bears vs. New York Giants Prediction and Pick Against the Spread

Posted by in NFL Picks on October 3rd, 2010 | 14 Comments
Bears vs. Giants Pick Against the Spread

Look for Julius Peppers to force Manning into some bad decisions.

ATL and TEN didn’t pan out. I only played ATL since AJAY talked me out of the DEN pick. Thank you sir. You won that one. Well played. Orton is legit. I can’t believe this guy went from “let’s limit this guy to less than 20 throws so he doesn’t lose the game” to “let’s put the ball in his hands 50 times a game so he can win it.” Kyle Orton: the best QB not named Brady or Manning? Should we get used to it? I thought lightning couldn’t strike again for him and it did. Chris Johnson also had two costly fumbles.

In the ATL game, I apologize for not forecasting a blocked punt that led to a TD. Without that play, ATL would have had the cover. I warned everyone this morning to be cautious about those two plays. That’s why I hedged my bets and placed a small bet on the Rams after talking to Brandon this morning. He posted that pick up this morning along with San Diego, so in addition to two big winners on Saturday, he delivered two more big wins today. I followed him with the San Diego pick at 4:00, which I was also high on, and along with the Rams pick, made up for the Atlanta loss.

CHICAGO BEARS @ NEW YORK GIANTS (-3.5)

I’m surprised the Giants are favored by this much. They’ve been absolutely horrendous. Their defense, which is usually strong, has been abysmal, giving up 28 PPG. I can understand the Giants being favored since they’re at home and perhaps “due for a win” just like the Browns were “due for a win” this week and the 49ers were “due for a win” (they almost beat Atlanta, but they ended up with the cover).

I don’t see that happening since they’ve been really, really, really bad the last two weeks. I’m expecting Julius Peppers to be in Manning’s face the entire game, forcing Eli Manning to make some bad throws and having the ball end up in the Bears hands. Eli is very apt to turning over the ball when pressured. Since the Giants won’t be able to run the ball against the best run defense in the league, the Giants will have to pass a lot and the Bears pass rush will bring it.

On the offensive side, the Bears passing game has been on point, even against a tough D like the Packers. The Giants have the 4th ranked passing defense though, but that’s with facing a weak Panthers team in week 1 and then a Titans team in week 3 that did nothing but run on them, so I’m not giving too much faith in those numbers. The bottom line is that the Giants are struggling while the Bears are on fire.

I’m not going to be overly confident in the Bears because of what happened to the Falcons. These “hangover” games that we speak of really do play out. When a team has a big thrilling victory the previous week, they just tend to come out flat. I just think the Bears are the play and they’re getting points. They should win outright, but even if they lose by 3, you’re still in the money. The spread shows just how confident Vegas is in the Giants. Do they know something?

Prediction: Bears 24 – Giants 17

Pick Against the Spread: Bears +3.5 (Confidence: 3/5)



14 Responses to Chicago Bears vs. New York Giants Prediction and Pick Against the Spread:

  1. A.JAY

    Date: Oct 03, 2010 at 6:30 pm

    This one is easy to assess, sharps come in heavy on G-Men while public bets their peanuts on Bears.

    Bears outright.

    Are you going to listen to me again?

  2. Mike

    Date: Oct 03, 2010 at 6:35 pm

    No way. The G-Dogs at home under the lights, they will win this one by 7. I am honestly shocked the line was still hovering around 3.5 because I really want to get the line at 3 just in case it comes to a field goal.

  3. A.JAY

    Date: Oct 03, 2010 at 6:38 pm

    So, Mike… what is it?

    They will win this one by 7…

    But I’m too scared to bet it at 3.5 because it might come to a FG?

    How about you just buy the half point and ease your tension?

    Incredible way of thinking.

  4. Vegas Martin

    Date: Oct 03, 2010 at 6:55 pm

    I touched on this in the post. The only reason I see to take the Giants is (1) it’s a home game; and (2) line shows Vegas is confident in them. Is that the only logic? What other reasons are there to take the Giants?

    Like I said, I’m not confident in taking the Bears. I’m not going to bet on it because the line is extremely dubious and just stinks of fishiness. Sometimes it makes sense to throw all logic to the wind and just go against the public, but you have to pick your spots carefully. It worked this week if you took the Jaguars, Browns or 49ers, but wasn’t Oakland the “sharp play” just like the 49ers and Browns? I at least reversed my play on the Panthers in smart fashion. I just don’t see the Giants winning. They are truly horrendous.

  5. Mike

    Date: Oct 03, 2010 at 7:10 pm

    All the time on the site they say this team will win by 10 and the line might be 6 or 7 and they are not confident. Just because I think they will win by 7 doesn’t mean they will. Absolutely crazy way of thinking.

    And nothing sticks out for the Giants but then again what sticks out for the Bears. They certainly didn’t win last week, Packers lost it. As long as the Giants D can play somewhat decent, I expect them to take this down.

    I did great this weekend, especially with the game of the year play. Hit 3 out of 4 so when I do that good I like to play another game since I will be watching it anyway.

  6. Mike

    Date: Oct 03, 2010 at 7:11 pm

    And just to add, the Giants are coming off possibly one of the most embarrasing performances ever in his coaching career with the Giants. Between turnovers and penalities (4 personal foul ones), I think they bounce back.

    But then again if I was always right I would be perfect and my marriage would be much better :)

  7. Vegas Martin

    Date: Oct 03, 2010 at 8:37 pm

    “Somebody put a tent over this circus because this is unbelievable.” – Chris Collinsworth (following Julius Peppers sack/fumble on Eli Manning after Jay Cutler has been sacked 7 times and has been stripped of the football twice).

    So you’re telling me the Giants defensive line doesn’t “try” unless they’re faced with a “must win” game? Apparently so. Where the hell were they the last two weeks?

  8. Mike

    Date: Oct 03, 2010 at 8:49 pm

    Chicago is insanely lucky at this point the game is not worse than it is. Do they even have positive offense yardage at this point?

  9. Mike

    Date: Oct 03, 2010 at 10:24 pm

    So 12 sacks later and it looks like this one is in the books. Good call on the Bears outright AJAY, the score was much closer than it looked O.O

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