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SMART BET WEEK 6 COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Posted by in College Football Picks on October 7th, 2010 | 16 Comments

Last week we went 4-2 (including MNF) for 2.7 units of profit. Looking to keep those strong plays rolling I am releasing two strong 2 unit plays this week and a 1 unit play. Read on for the top plays.

EAST CAROLINA VS SO. MISS (-8) for 2 UNITS:

After making my lines for this game, I conservatively had So Miss as a 14pt home chalk. Therefore I see a good deal of value in So Miss this week. After a tough loss at home to South Carolina to start the year this team has been rock solid going 3-0 SU and ATS at home.  They continue to dominate weak opponents.  So Miss should be able to take advantage of ECU’s terrible defense, giving up almost 200yds rushing and over 270yds passing.  So Miss’s balanced attack, over 180yds rushing and 220yds passing, will easily take advantage of many mismatches on both sides of the ball. Look for So Miss to roll 37-17.

Oregon State vs ARIZONA (-8) for 2 UNITS: Again my numbers totally disagree with the Vegas Line as I have Arizona a 17pt favorite. Oregon State has played a brutal schedule facing TCU, Boise State, and AzSt already this year and as you saw last week at the end of the game they are running out of gas, almost losing in the last few minutes to AzSt. I see Az exploiting OregonSt primarily through the air as Az has been throwing for 300yds per contest. Oregon State comes in flat and leaves with a good thumping 35-17.

MICHIGAN ST (+4.5) AT Michigan for 1 UNIT: If this game was being played on a neutral field I would have this game as MSU -1, but with it being in the Big House I have Michigan -2.5 to -3.  It goes without saying that D. Robinson is going to be very tough to handle and is not going to be completely shut down.  However, there are several reasons why I think MSU can control Robinson and score on the weak secondary of Michigan.  MSU’s rush defense has been rock solid all year, giving up just over 100yds per contest.  If I am MSU, I put 8 or 9 in the box and take my chances with Robinson’s arm.  MSU has passed for about 220yds per contest while UM is giving up over 300yds passing per contest.  Therefore, they should be able to attack UM either through the air or on the ground.  I am going to side with the better defense in this affair and take a chance that MSU pulls the upset or at least keeps it close.

Recommendations:

Oklahoma St/La Lafayette OVER 61.5 WINNER

Army (PK) vs Tulane

Baylor (+2) vs TexTech

LSU vs Florida (-6.5)



16 Responses to SMART BET WEEK 6 COLLEGE FOOTBALL:

  1. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Oct 08, 2010 at 4:22 pm

    FYI: Recommended play on the OVER 61.5 in Friday Night’s match-up of Ok St/La Lafayette

  2. Ryan D

    Date: Oct 08, 2010 at 5:12 pm

    I really like the So. Miss pick. That should be a very very easy cover for them considering East Carolina dosen’t care how many points there opponent scores.

    But, I am surprised you don’t have Orgeon on there to cover a 37 point spread against a 1-4 Washington St that got manhandled by OK st, USC and not to mention a loss to UCLA. We all know Oregon loves to punish teams and don’t care how many points they score. This one should be a given.

    I also wanted to ask your input on the Boise St game. I would not go against a current spread of 39 as Toledos offense can put points on the board but….the o/u is only at 58 right now and Boise has put up 50+ against unranked opponents this year. Sounds like the over would be a given also.

  3. A.JAY

    Date: Oct 08, 2010 at 5:28 pm

    You’re going 1-2 b/c MSU will cover but ECU and Oregon State will stay within their respective numbers.

    With Southern Miss, you’re simply putting the pussy on the pedestal. You thought they should be giving 14? Please! ECU will be in this game throughout.

    Arizona isn’t sneaking up on anyone now that they’re in conference play. Oregon State will come right into Tuscon lock, stock, and barrel with nothing to lose.

    You want 3 stone cold l*cks?

    Illinois/Penn State Over 42

    Boston College +10.5

    North Carolina -2

  4. Ryan D

    Date: Oct 08, 2010 at 5:40 pm

    Woah…you think Penn St and Illini will go over 42? You are high. Oh st couldn’t even put 30 on Illinois. You are crazy if this game is going to go over the over.

  5. austin

    Date: Oct 08, 2010 at 6:02 pm

    Missouri
    Utah
    Arkansas
    Louisville
    Hawaii
    So. Miss.
    Arizona
    Florida
    UCLA

    any help on top 4 solid picks this week?

  6. austin

    Date: Oct 08, 2010 at 6:04 pm

    also stanford

  7. Ryan D

    Date: Oct 08, 2010 at 6:35 pm

    Missouri – I am from Missouri and rarely bet against Mizzou. Blaine Gabbert is way to unpredictable. Plus, colorado just put a strong showing against Georgia. I would lay off that. The only thing I would bet on is the o/u because both teams can potentially put up a bunch of points leading to a shootout game but I have not looked at the lines yet.

    Arkansas – I have won some big money on Arkansas this year. Specifically on the GA game and AL game. I take Arkansas in this one all the way. If they came that close to beating Alabama, then A&M has no chance. Plus A&M just blew a game vs OK st. Mallard is a beast.

    So. Miss. – East Carolina’s defense really dosent care how many points there opponent scores. They have a mindset that as long as there offense is scoring, then the defense can let up points. So Miss has the 15th rank defense and I don’t think East Carolina is going to score that much. So. Miss all the way.

    There is some input for you on the list. The other teams I don’t follow.

  8. A.JAY

    Date: Oct 08, 2010 at 7:00 pm

    Hey D. Ryan,

    It’s easy to boast the #15 defense in all of D1 football when your schedule looks like this through 5 games…

    @ South Carolina * 13 – 41 L
    Sat 09/11/2010 PRAIRIE VIEW * 34 – 7 W
    Fri 09/17/2010 KANSAS * 31 – 16 W
    Sat 09/25/2010 @ Louisiana Tech * 13 – 12 W
    Sat 10/02/2010 MARSHALL * 41 – 16 W

    After getting beaten up by SC in Week 1, they’ve had some pretty easy sledding.

    ECU will be the 2nd best team they have faced this season. Too many points to give them.

    Why can’t it go over D. Ryan? Because you saw 2 inept offenses last week, one faced maybe the best defense in the nation in OSU, and the other faced another top tier defense in Iowa, on the road.

    Stop living week to week and become a better gambler.

  9. Rip TOrn

    Date: Oct 08, 2010 at 7:36 pm

    Hard to win in Hattiesburg, but ECU can get close with their offense. I agree, So Miss isn’t anything special. Figured this line would be around 5 or 6.

  10. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Oct 09, 2010 at 1:35 am

    Easy winner with the OVER tonight. Went OVER midway through the third quarter. Numbers seem to be spot on.

    Whether So. Miss’s schedule is easy or not is irrelevant because they are playing another weak opponent who has given up an average of 43pts per game. ECU is completely one dimensional and even average defenses can guard a team that only has one weapon.

    In regards to Boise State, the total does seem low and they have the potential to hold Toledo to zero points. Therefore, to play the over you have to believe Boise can go over by themselves. I am just not sure that will happen.

    When did this site become flooded with people promoting their own picks? If you are a pro what are you doing on our site? We are giving away free picks that weekend and weekout make our dedicated readers more money than they would ever make paying for your average picks. We don’t have to promote on your site b/c picking winners brings readers, we don’t have to try to get people to come to site the find us because we pick winners!

  11. Ryan D

    Date: Oct 09, 2010 at 9:39 am

    A. Jay,

    Inept offenses? Illinois also faced Mizzou and only put up 13 to them! Granted it was the first week, but it was Mizzou…I mean come on. Penn st is only averaging 20 points a game and had mediocre showings against Kent st and Temple. There QB has thrown just three touchdowns and six interceptions so far through 5 weeks. That should tell you something right there. Both teams have good defense, and both have horrid offenses that have yet to find there identity. Maybe I’m wrong, but based on the facts, this game should be way under the o/u of 42.

  12. Rip TOrn

    Date: Oct 09, 2010 at 9:58 am

    D. Ryan.

    PSU ILL could be 17-14 at the half. :)

  13. Ryan D

    Date: Oct 09, 2010 at 10:06 am

    Rip TOrn,

    Very possible hahah, and I could end up eating my own words. And I should have put my response to the Penn st/Illinois over by A.jay in better words. I apologize to him for that. I didn’t mean to make it sound like that, just kind of surprised me BASED on what both teams offenses have been playing like this year.

  14. C Double

    Date: Oct 09, 2010 at 11:26 am

    thinking of going big on the so. miss pick…looking to make that paper, we’ll see how it plays out..

  15. Rip TOrn

    Date: Oct 09, 2010 at 1:37 pm

    Looks like ajay was right on with penn state over.

  16. Ryan D

    Date: Oct 09, 2010 at 7:35 pm

    Yep. Ate my own words. Went over by 4 points.

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