SMART BET WEEK 6 COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Last week we went 4-2 (including MNF) for 2.7 units of profit. Looking to keep those strong plays rolling I am releasing two strong 2 unit plays this week and a 1 unit play. Read on for the top plays.

EAST CAROLINA VS SO. MISS (-8) for 2 UNITS:

After making my lines for this game, I conservatively had So Miss as a 14pt home chalk. Therefore I see a good deal of value in So Miss this week. After a tough loss at home to South Carolina to start the year this team has been rock solid going 3-0 SU and ATS at home.  They continue to dominate weak opponents.  So Miss should be able to take advantage of ECU’s terrible defense, giving up almost 200yds rushing and over 270yds passing.  So Miss’s balanced attack, over 180yds rushing and 220yds passing, will easily take advantage of many mismatches on both sides of the ball. Look for So Miss to roll 37-17.

Oregon State vs ARIZONA (-8) for 2 UNITS: Again my numbers totally disagree with the Vegas Line as I have Arizona a 17pt favorite. Oregon State has played a brutal schedule facing TCU, Boise State, and AzSt already this year and as you saw last week at the end of the game they are running out of gas, almost losing in the last few minutes to AzSt. I see Az exploiting OregonSt primarily through the air as Az has been throwing for 300yds per contest. Oregon State comes in flat and leaves with a good thumping 35-17.

MICHIGAN ST (+4.5) AT Michigan for 1 UNIT: If this game was being played on a neutral field I would have this game as MSU -1, but with it being in the Big House I have Michigan -2.5 to -3.  It goes without saying that D. Robinson is going to be very tough to handle and is not going to be completely shut down.  However, there are several reasons why I think MSU can control Robinson and score on the weak secondary of Michigan.  MSU’s rush defense has been rock solid all year, giving up just over 100yds per contest.  If I am MSU, I put 8 or 9 in the box and take my chances with Robinson’s arm.  MSU has passed for about 220yds per contest while UM is giving up over 300yds passing per contest.  Therefore, they should be able to attack UM either through the air or on the ground.  I am going to side with the better defense in this affair and take a chance that MSU pulls the upset or at least keeps it close.

Recommendations:

Oklahoma St/La Lafayette OVER 61.5 WINNER

Army (PK) vs Tulane

Baylor (+2) vs TexTech

LSU vs Florida (-6.5)