Archive for October, 2010

Question by Bear Down: Week 6 Sit/Start: Flex Spot?

Who should I start in my flex slot for week 6?

Braylon Edwards vs. NYG
Earnest Graham vs. TB

Both obviously have their flaws. Edwards has sucked and so has Derek Anderson for that matter which doesn’t help. I hesitate to start him and see if he finally has a good week vs. a solid Giants defense. And Graham is splitting carries with Dunn and is playing a very solid run defense in Carolina.

I also have Tim Hightower, Robert Meachem, and Steve Breaston but I’m thinking either Edwards or Graham would be better options but let me know if you think Breaston will break out in Boldin’s absence or something like that. So I’m in a dilemma and your opinions are appreciated.

Best answer:

I would definitely go with Breaston since Boldin is out. As far as Graham and Dunn splitting carries, Graham gets them in the redzone so he can easily get 12-14 fantasy points as long as the Bucs use him near the goal line. Good luck this week.

Give your answer to this question below!…

SPARTY ON!

After scanning through the week 7 college football lines, here are some lines that stand out to me. As a reminder, this is based off a quick scan. Therefore, do your own due diligence before taking any games. Good luck.

• MICHIGAN STATE (-7) over Illinois — Michigan State is off to a 6-0 start with impressive wins over Notre Dame and @Michigan. Michigan State’s offense has been rolling and Illinois D has some problems. At home, I’m confident in giving up the 7 as I see Michigan State topping Illinois by 13.
• North Carolina State (-7.5) over EAST CAROLINA – NC State has been rather impressive this season getting off to a 5-1 start. Eastern Carolina games have been crazy this year. They have no defense, but the offense can keep up. Seeing how North Carolina and Virginia Tech blew them out at ECU, I’m confident NC State can cruise past ECU for a win in the ballpark of 38-24.
• NEBRASKA (-9.5) over Texas — So far nobody has been able to stop Nebraska’s running attack and Texas has been extremely disappointing falling out of the top 25. Although Texas has a respectable D, their offense has been sleeping, currently ranked 70th in the nation.  Last year’s matchup ended 13-12. I see Nebraska topping Texas 27-13 in this one. May be too many points against a good D, so teasing this game with another like Michigan State or North Carolina State may be a good option. I would give up concert tickets to see this one.
• Utah (-21) over WYOMING — Utah’s offense has been explosive and Wyoming gives up a ton of points and has averaged just 12.5 points per contest. Look for Utah to roll by

South Florida Bulls @ West Virginia Mountaineers (-10.5)

This is a big Thursday night game that will be aired on ESPN. South Florida is coming off an ugly 13-9 loss against Syracuse last week. West Virginia covered their 26.5 point spread by beating UNLV last week 49-10. They are now

South Florida takes advantage of the generous points given to them tonight.

ranked in the AP top 25 at #25.

Let’s talk about the head-to-head match-up between these two teams though. South Florida has won three of the last four games SU and are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings with the Mountaineers. Last year, South Florida topped them 30-19. Clearly, West Virginia is the better team this year, but in my opinion are getting way too many points tonight. I see West Virginia winning this game, but definitely in a close one. South Florida covers the spread.

The Bulls last victory against their last five games versus ranked opponents was against West Virginia last year. Coach Holtz knows that this year is different with West Virginia improving dramatically throwing the ball when they’re usually known for their running game.

Holtz as a coach is 20-4-1 ATS as a dog when facing a team with at least one loss on the season. Coach of the Mountaineers,, Stewart,  is 8-15 ATS when laying points. Vegas made a mistake and gave the Bulls too many points.

Prediction: Mountaineers 24 – Bulls 20

Pick Against the Spread: South Florida +10.5…

Minnesota Vikings @ New York Jets (-5)

Chemistry is the key word tonight for the Vikings, and I see it happening between Moss and Favre tonight. Moss, who has been able to catch anything within reach, and Favre loving to throw the ball deep, should be the perfect match and potentially a win tonight for Minnesota. Moss will be able to stretch the field for Minnesota, therefore giving

He's back..

opportunities to Adrian Peterson all night long to run the football. Tampa Bay took advantage coming off their bye week by upsetting the Bengals, let’s see if Minnesota can take advantage of coming off theirs.

Minnesota has definitely been looking for someone like Moss to be acquired to their team. They have only four passes for 20+ yards this season, and that’s the fewest in the NFL. The Jets are ranked fourth in rush defense, but will have their work cut out for them tonight with Peterson, who ranks second in the NFL in rushing yards per game.

Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in their last five week five games, as well as 4-1 ATS in their last five against a team with a winning record.

Prediction: Vikings 24 – Jets 17

Pick Against the Spread: Minnesota +5…

NFL Week 5 Picks for 4:00/4:15 games.

New Orleans Saints (-7) @ Arizona Cardinals

The key for the Saints this week is to slow down on their turnovers. In their last two games they’ve fumbled the ball four times, still managing to stay in the plus column in that department. The one good thing is that their about to face a

Drew Brees has accumulated 1131 passing yards so far this season.

Cardinals team who allows 29.5 PPG and 388 yards per game. The Saints are still without Reggie Bush. Since Arizona has such a sad defense allowing 155 rushing yards per game, maybe the Saints will get their running game going finally.

New Orleans has won the past two meetings, but fell 34-10 in their last meeting in Arizona in ’04. I like that the Saints are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings with Arizona.

Prediction: Saints 34 – Arizona 13

Pick Against the Spread: New Orleans -7

San Diego Chargers (-6.5) @ Oakland Raiders

The Chargers head into this game coming off two regular season wins last season winning 24-20 in Oakland and 24-16 in San Diego. Not only did they sweep the series last year, but also the five years previous to that. The Raiders have lost the four of their games by a combines 93 points.

I think this game has the making of being close most of the way, with San Diego pulling out some late offense to cover the spread. San Diego is 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings in Oakland and 11-3 in the last 14 meetings.

Prediction: Chargers 27 – Raiders 20

Pick Against the Spread: San Diego -6.5

Tennessee Titans @ Dallas Cowboys (-7)

Dallas better be able to …

Question: Looking for some week 5 fantasy start/sit advice.

I have two RB spots and a Flex to fill in a PPR league.  Here are my best options for this week.

Ray Rice vs. DEN
LeSean McCoy @SF
Cedric Benson vs. TB
Peyton Hillis vs. ATL

Both Rice and McCoy have been cleared to play this Sunday. Who should I start in my flex, Peyton Hillis or Cedric Benson? What does everyone think?

Best answer:

Great job at drafting a solid set of runningbacks. I would start Ray Rice and LeSean McCoy with Peyton Hillis in the Flex. Good Luck.

Know better? Leave your own answer in the comments!…

Last week we went 4-2 (including MNF) for 2.7 units of profit. Looking to keep those strong plays rolling I am releasing two strong 2 unit plays this week and a 1 unit play. Read on for the top plays.

EAST CAROLINA VS SO. MISS (-8) for 2 UNITS:

After making my lines for this game, I conservatively had So Miss as a 14pt home chalk. Therefore I see a good deal of value in So Miss this week. After a tough loss at home to South Carolina to start the year this team has been rock solid going 3-0 SU and ATS at home.  They continue to dominate weak opponents.  So Miss should be able to take advantage of ECU’s terrible defense, giving up almost 200yds rushing and over 270yds passing.  So Miss’s balanced attack, over 180yds rushing and 220yds passing, will easily take advantage of many mismatches on both sides of the ball. Look for So Miss to roll 37-17.

Oregon State vs ARIZONA (-8) for 2 UNITS: Again my numbers totally disagree with the Vegas Line as I have Arizona a 17pt favorite. Oregon State has played a brutal schedule facing TCU, Boise State, and AzSt already this year and as you saw last week at the end of the game they are running out of gas, almost losing in the last few minutes to AzSt. I see Az exploiting OregonSt primarily through the air as Az has been throwing for 300yds per contest. Oregon State comes in flat and leaves with a good thumping 35-17.

MICHIGAN ST (+4.5) AT Michigan for 1 UNIT: If this game was being played on a neutral field I would have this game as MSU -1, but with it being in …