Dolphins vs. Patriots Monday Night Pick Against the Spread

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-7) @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

I always warn everyone to not bet against home dogs on Monday Night, but there are certain exceptions to that rule and one exception is if your quarterback is named Tom Brady. Tom Brady played the Dolphins in Miami on Monday Night last season and tore them apart, 41-14.

The Dolphins Chad Henne is not going to out-duel Tom Brady, but can he keep it close? That will be up to Miami’s defense. The Dolphins ranked 6th last year in yards allowed and 8th against the pass, so if there is a defense that can help their struggling QB cover by spotting him 7 points, it’s the Dolphins.

Despite those strong rankings, the Dolphins don’t have a formidable pass rush — something that’s necessary to defeat Brady (think Giants in the Super Bowl). I just don’t see the Miami defense slowing down Mr. Brady and company and I don’t see Chad Henne putting up impressive numbers against a good Patriots defense.

The Patriots have won 6 of their last 8 meetings. Tom Brady is 4-5 ATS in Miami though, but was successful in his last game. I’m sticking with the Patriots.

Prediction: Patriots 27 – Dolphins 17

Free Pick Against the Spread: Patriots -7 (Confidence: 4/5)