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Monday Night Pick Against the Spread: Redskins over Cowboys

Posted by in NFL Picks on September 26th, 2011 | Comment »

Redskins vs. Cowboys Monday Night PickThis week, if you checked out our final word on week 3, I changed my top play from the Chargers and Lions to the Carolina Panthers. I didn’t like the Chargers high spread and felt the Vikings were due for a win (or cover). Unfortunately for me, I had the Lions in a parlay and the Lions didn’t show up until the second half. Although they won the game by 23-20, they didn’t cover the 3.5 points they had to lay. I took the Panthers on my top individual ticket and then parlayed them with the Lions. That would have been a sweet win. I put portion of the Carolina win on the Steelers in the night game, who ended up hanging with the Steelers and covering the spread. Another day where I ended about even.


I’ll take the points in tonight’s game. Tony Romo may play with sprained ribs and a couple sacks from the Redskins should send him to the sidelines. His top target in Miles Austin is out. His other primary target in Dez Bryant is questionable. Felix Jones is also banged up. I don’t see the Cowboys offense doing a whole lot against against this tough Redskins defense. The Cowboys will have to rely on Jason Witten to move the chains, so he’ll be getting the full attention of the Redskins and should be contained.

I’ve also been impressed with the Redskins offense so far this year. Rex Grossman is looking like a comeback player of the year candidate. The Redskins have been running the ball with ease. The Redskins offense should be able to hang with the Cowboys banged up offense no problem.

In what looks to be a tight low-scoring game, I’ll take the points, especially since I think the Redskins can win this game outright. If you want to add an extra points cushion, you can tease the spread to Redskins +10.5 with the under 51.5. Last season, the Redskins lost 30-33 in Dallas and beat them on their home turf 13-7.

UPDATE: With Dez Bryant suiting up for the Cowboys, I’m dropping the confidence rating from 3 to 2. Dez may add enough to the offense to give the Cowboys the cover, but I’ll still side with the points. This is the Cowboys home opener. The place will be rocking, but the Cowboys are 0-2 in their home openers at the new stadium. I had the Redskins winning 24-20 before. I now have the Cowboys winning 23-20. Redskins-Cowboys games are almost always close.

Free Pick: Redskins +3.5 (Confidence: 2/5), Teaser: Redskins +10.5, Under 51.5 (Confidence: 2/5)

Predicition: Cowboys 23 – Redskins 20

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