THE PASS RUSH :: "NFL and college football picks against the spread." | NFL | NBA | NHL | MLB
| Log in |

NFL Week 5 Picks Against the Spread

Posted by in NFL Picks on October 6th, 2011 | 9 Comments

NFL Week 5 Picks Against the SpreadLast week was a solid week. We recommended three picks and we hit two of our top three picks. We hit on New Orleans (-7) over Jacksonville, Washington Redskins (-1) over St. Louis Rams, but missed on Atlanta Falcons (-4.5) over Seattle Seahawks. My overall record in week 4 was 9-7 ATS and my yearly total is 32-30 ATS. My pick ’em league record is 31-31, but Yahoo did not update the Redskins +3.5 against the Cowboys and listed the game as a pick ’em and I took the Skins with the points. All three games were 4/5 star picks last week, but this week, all I have is handful of 3/5 star picks.


I’m going to target the Seattle Seahawks all season, although a healthy Sidney Rice, who went off last week, makes them slightly more dangerous to bet against. The Seahawks made a valient come-back effort against the Falcons by getting the cover, but failed to get the win. The Falcons took a 24-7 lead into the half until the Seahawks put up 3 TDs in the second half while limiting the Falcons to two field goals. Tavaris Jackson put up solid numbers with 319 yards and 3 TDs. I don’t expect that type of repeat performance on the road when a west-coast team has to play on the east coast at 1:00. The Seahawks running games has really struggled and their defense is lacking, giving up 24.2 PPG so the Giants can run away with this game in a hurry. The Giants have had the Seahawks number — beating them 41-7 on the road last year and 44-6 in 2008. The Giants offense should roll over a poor defense when they’re at home. Hakeem Nicks should have a monster day for fantasy owners.

Prediction: Giants 34 – Seahawks 17

Pick Against the Spread: Giants -9.5 (Confidence: 3/5)


I hate this game against the spread, but see a nice opportunity for a teaser.  The Patriots are averaging 33.8 PPG and over 500 yards of offense per game. The Jets are averaging 25 PPG. The Jets were in shootouts against Dallas and Oakland already and will have to shoot it out with the Patriots if they want to win this game. The Patriots defense has huge holes — they’re giving up 24.5 PPG, rank last in the NFL in yards allowed, rank last in 3rd-down stops, and rank last in 20+ yard plays allowed. With the over/under at 49, you could tease the line down to 42 and take the Patriots at -2.5. Both teams should be poised for at least 20 points and you’ll have a nice, warm, sunny day on Sunday in Boston. You may get one of those weird low-scoring games between these two, but I think the odds are in your favor at over 42 and sticking with Mr. Brady at home. The Patriots defense is awful and will give up a lot of points, but the Patriots will just outscore you.

Prediction: Patriots 31 – Jets 24

Pick Against the Spread: Patriots -2.5/Over 42 (Confidence: 3/5)


I’m actually going with the Bengals as one of my top picks this week. The Jaguars offense is horrible, averaging 9.8 PPG compared to the Bengals 20 PPG average. On defense, the Bengals average 18.5 PPG allowed while Jacksonville allows 21.2 PPG. Expect a low-scoring game, which is why the over/under is set at 36.5. The Jags offense should continue the struggle with Blaine Gabbert still getting accustomed to things. Gabbert is completing less than 50% of his passes and has a 62.9 QB rating.

The Jaguars are ranked 31st in yards-per-play with 4.3 yards-per-play, compared to the Bengals 5.4 average which ranks 17th. The Jaguars are also ranked 31st in 1st-downs per-game with 14.8 compared to the Bengals 18.5, which is ranked 20th. The Jaguars convert just 32% of their third downs, but the Bengals are worse in that department with a 28% conversion percentage. The Bengals defense is amongst the best at stopping offenses on 3rd down, ranked 3rd in the NFL, stopping opposing defenses 68% of the time. The Jags aren’t too shabby either, getting stops 62% of the time.

I’m also a fan of the Andy Dalton to A.J. Green connection. A.J. Green has already had two 100+ yard games. Other than the San Francisco game, Dalton has been solid with his first two games with a 100+ QB rating and two 275+ yard games with 332 and 298 passing yards and an 8+ yards-per-attempt average in those games (albeit against Denver and Buffalo). The Bengals also topped the “mighty” Buffalo Bills last week.

The Bengals are fairly strong against the run, allowing just 86.8 YPG and 3.1 YPC so Jones-Drew should be contained. Statistically, the Bengals have the #1 defense in yards allowed (275.5 YPG), which is ahead of the Steelers, Ravens, Cowboys, and Redskins.  Here is how the Bengals defense has performed against running backs this far this season:

Peyton Hillis – 17 rushes, 57 yards, 3.4 YPC, 0 TDs
Willis McGahee – 28 rushes, 101 yards, 3.6 YPC, 1 TD
Frank Gore – 17 rushes, 52 yards, 2.5 YPC, 0 TD
Fred Jackson – 17 rushes, 66 yards, 3.9 YPC, 1 TD

Although I simply like this game straight up and you’re getting 1.5 points with the Bengals, you may also want to bolster the pick by taking the Bengals +8.5 with the under 43.5 since both offenses are struggling while the defenses are performing well, but a 24-20 game is certainly possible.

Prediction: Bengals 20 – Jaguars 13

Pick Against the Spread: Bengals +1.5 (Confidence: 3/5), Bengals +8.5, Under 43.5 (Confidence: 3/5)


Although Chargers are without Antonio Gates and WR Malcolm Floyd is questionable, the Chargers should still be able to top the Broncos by 4. Denver has too many issues with their pass defense for Philip Rivers to have a quiet game. The Broncos are ranked 23rd against the pass, giving up 275 passing yards per game. The Broncos rank 23rd on 3rd-down defense getting stops just 57% of the time, while the Chargers offense is ranked 1st on 3rd down by converting 58% of their 3rd downs. The Broncos defense is ranked 24th in yards per-play and 18th in 1st downs allowed. I just see too many defensive issues in Denver and Philip Rivers should be able to take advantage despite the absence of Antonio Gates. Denver CB Champ Bailey will be returning, but won’t be 100% with a hamstring injury.

Prediction: Chargers 24 – Broncos 17

Pick Against the Spread: Chargers -4 (Confidence: 3/5)

9 Responses to NFL Week 5 Picks Against the Spread:

  1. LMAO

    Date: Oct 06, 2011 at 10:51 pm

    LMAO DUDE, DUDE, DUDE. You are AS square as they come I personally guarantee a Broncos cover and the Jags will most likely cover their spread. What a joke of a site

  2. LMAO

    Date: Oct 06, 2011 at 10:53 pm

    “Bengals topple might Bills last week” is the most square comment I’ve ever seen LMAO that alone ensures me that JAX cover.


    Date: Oct 07, 2011 at 2:07 am

    LMAO, VegasMartin just expresses his opinion about the matchups. You don’t have to be that immature to write those kind of comments about him. Lets see you place money in your guarantees this week and see.

  4. lmao@LMAO

    Date: Oct 07, 2011 at 9:16 am

    Hey LMAO….first off he used parentheses on the words mighty which means he was making a subtle joke at how everyone else has called them mighty.
    Secondly the fact that you are personally guaranteeing a Broncos fan tells me either you do not know anything about football or that you are just a broncos fan. The Chargers will more than likely win by a lot more then 4 points.
    Thirdly Vegasmartin is basing his pick on stats and history mixed with a littel gut-feeling. Your second post about how his square comment has basically ensured you that JAX will cover is the stupidest thing I have ever heard. Maybe we should alert all the other betting tips sites about your amazing findings……better yet we should let Vegas know. They might want to change the line after your discovery…….I would have taken you seriously if you had provided some statistical reason on why you think that JAX would cover.
    Fourthly, if you do not know anything about football then do not go and comment on other peoples blogs about it. Keep your stupidity to yourself.

  5. ROTFL

    Date: Oct 07, 2011 at 9:45 am

    Square plays win sometimes, I enjoy the site and the reads. Win money that is all that matters. Anyone that “guarantees” a win is the bigger square

  6. XTL40

    Date: Oct 07, 2011 at 4:15 pm

    “I personally guarantee a Broncos cover and the Jags will most likely cover their spread.”

    You’re a fucking idiot.

    Keep up the good work Vegas Martin and thank you for sharing your insight. Dont mind the betting gurus who guarantee the future with their illogical bullshit.

  7. Vegas Martin

    Date: Oct 08, 2011 at 12:20 pm

    Good job to the person who understands that quotations marks around “mighty” denotes sarcasm. It’s a rib on Chris Berman.

    Yes, I know the Jaguars/Bengals game is a 50-50 toss up. Sure, the Jags are home and perhaps due for a win, but I don’t see how anyone can have confidence in their offense to guarantee a victory. The Bengals are better on both sides of the ball, so I’ll take a chance on them in what is essentially a pick ’em game.

    The Chargers have also been less than impressive thus far this season, so it’s not outside the realm of possibilities that they drop this division game on the road, especially since they’re without Gates and likely Floyd. I did give a score of 24-17, so it’s not like I’m calling a 31-10 victory or anything. I’m expecting a fairly tight game, but one that the Chargers win by 4 or more.

    Please also note that last week’s 4/5 star picks went 2-1. This week I didn’t give any 4/5 star picks since I’m not crazy about the lineup.

  8. Vegas Martin

    Date: Oct 08, 2011 at 2:24 pm

    Just updated the Bengals pick with more reasons why I like the Bengals in this game.

  9. jayells

    Date: Oct 09, 2011 at 1:04 am

    watch sd cover this week as well as the eagles saints and packers. follow me on twitter at abcdefghijosh

Leave a Reply

Want a picture next to your name? Sign up for a Gravatar!


Facebook Twitter RSS Feed Mobile Football Picks
League Home Page | Register
League ID: 63470
League Password: thepassrush
Winner gets an NFL Shop Custom T-Shirt
2009 - Deez Nuts (MN)
2010 - To Be Crowned
2011 - Possibly You

Who do you think will win the Super Bowl?

View Results

Loading ... Loading ...

  NFL Rumors & News >

Powered by Zadling | Terms of Service | Privacy Policy