Archive for November, 2011

We split our Sunday picks going 2-2 ATS after going 2-1 ATS on Thanksgiving. We hit on the Panthers and Falcons, but came up short on the Bengals and Steelers. If the Steelers didn’t fumble the football in the endzone at the beginning of the game, the score could have ended 20-9 instead of 13-9 giving the Steelers the cover. We came out even so no biggie, let’s pick the Monday Night game between the Giants and Saints.

NEW YORK GIANTS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-7.5)

You know I love teasing games on Monday Night. I’m not a fan of Saints -7.5 since the Giants offense can keep pace with Drew Brees. The Giants average about 23 points while the Saints average 31 points, but the Saints 62 points against the Colts inflates that number. Both defenses are giving up 22.8 PPG. Eli Manning outdueled Tom Brady on the road, but has since lost two straight games to the 49ers and Eagles, losing both of those games by a touchdown.

With the Saints undefeated at home, I don’t see them dropping this one, but Manning has the passing attack to keep this one close throughout the game and possibly covering the spread. I think this is a good candidate to take the points, but why bet against the Saints at home? The Saints are 4-0 ATS at home this year covering against the Bucs, Colts, Texans, and Chicago. I hate the Giants since I’m an Eagles fan and don’t have much faith in them on the road in New Orleans, so I’ll tease the Saints to a pick ’em and take a look at the over/under.

Everyone is thinking points in this one. The over/under is coming in at 51, …

Hope everyone had a Happy Thanksgiving. We built up our bank role going 2-1 ATS with our Thanksgiving special thanks to the Packers and Ravens. Here are some quick picks for Sunday. My favorite plays are the Steelers and Panthers and I’ll throw in mediocre picks on the Falcons and Bengals. The spreads are a bit too high to make those quality plays, so you may want to tease them together instead.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ ATLANTA FALCONS (-9.5) 

I love taking the Falcons at home. With Adrian Peterson out, the Vikings offense will struggle to get going while the Falcons should cruise to an easy victory. This is also a good candidate to tease with another game such as the Steelers over the Chiefs or Bengals over the Browns.

Prediction: Falcons 27 – Vikings 17

Pick Against the Spread: Falcons -9.5 (Confidence: 3/5)

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS (-7)

I’m loving the Bengals this year. A.J. Green will be back this week. The Bengals beat the Browns earlier this season 27-17 on the road and I expect a similar outcome.

Prediction: Bengals 24 – Browns 13

Pick Against the Spread: Bengals -7 (Confidence: 3/5)

CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3.5) @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Cam Newton is due for a win. His defense has been the teams Achilles heal though. Hopefully his defense doesn’t let him down again. Points will be easy to come by for the Panthers against one of the worst teams against the run. With the Colts offensive woes, I don’t think the Panthers have to worry about getting outscored here. The Panthers should dominate this game.

Prediction: Panthers 31 – Colts 13

Pick Against the Spread: Panthers -3.5 (Confidence: 4/5)

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-10.5) @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

We saw how …

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! As readers of the site know, THE PASS RUSH tends to heat up around Thanksgiving time. Last year our Thanksgiving picks went 3-0 ATS to follow up a 4-0 ATS the week before. Last week, we hit all of our picks going 2-0-1 on Sunday and nailing the Monday night game to go 3-0 in our last 3 Monday Night Picks. The last week has positioned us to make a huge run in the last week of November going into Decemeber.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-6) @ DETROIT LIONS

We finally get to see a competitive game on Thanksgiving featuring the Lions. We have the 10-0 Green Bay Packers vs. 7-3 Detroit Lions. I don’t think the Lions have played on Thanksgiving with a winning record in over a decade. With both teams averaging over 30 PPG, I am excited to watch this game. I’m definitely leaning Packers, but I’ve been singing the Lions praises since before the season even started. The Packers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games, while the Lions are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games. In the last 10 games between these teams, the Packers are 7-3 ATS. I’m going to go with the better team and the team with a history of winning this matchup, the Green Bay Packers. No doubt that Lions are a much better football team capable of finally beating the Packers, but Aaron Rodgers is just a machine. He will put scoring drive after drive together and keep the Lions offense off the field as best he can. 63% of the money is on the Packers in this one.

Prediction: Packers 31 – Lions 24

Free Pick Against the Spread: Packers -6 (Confidence: 3/5)…

Question: Which 3 wide receivers would you play in week 11?

I need to start 3 of these 4.

Miles Austin vs. DET
Anquan Boldin vs. CAR
Greg Jennings vs. MIN
Brandon Lloyd vs. SD

Right now I’ve got Miles Austin on my bench, but who would you bench?

Best answer:

You have a great set of wide receivers with good matchups.  I like Miles Austin, Greg Jennings, and Brandon Lloyd. Anquan Boldin hasn’t impressed me much this year. He gets his touches but Torrey Smith is the Ravens wideout that I would want on my team. Brandon Lloyd could have a big game against SD. I say you bench Boldin or Lloyd, but definitely start Miles Austin against Detroit.

Have feedback? Leave your own answer in the comments!…

Question: I need tons of help making my week 10 fantasy football picks.

QB: Tim Tebow vs. KC or Matt Schaub vs. TB

RB: LeGarrette Blount vs. HOU or Beanie Wells vs. PHI

TE: Vernon Davis vs. NYG or Brandon Pettigrew vs. CHI

FLEX: Stevie Johnson vs. DAL or Willis McGahee vs. KC

Best answer:

I would go with Matt Schaub vs. TB since Tebow is too inconsistent. He has had some monster fantasy games, but also some fantasy busts. Tampa’s defense is not very good this year. Houston’s run defense has been strong, while Philly’s has given up a lot of yardage since they have huge question marks at the linbacking position. I think Beanie Wells will put up some great numbers. Vernon Davis is a no-brainer against the Giants. Pettigrew’s numbers are inconsistent. I would put McGahee in the flex. Since Moreno has some injury concerns, McGahee will be getting a lot of carries.

Know better? Leave your own answer in the comments!…

It was a great week for me as I hit my top 2 picks with the 3 posted picks going 2-0-1 against the spread. I hit on the 49ers/Packers teaser, hit on the Bears, and the Falcons pick pushed.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-17)

I’m going with the Patriots tonight. The last time the Chiefs played on Monday Night, I took the Chiefs in a teaser over the Chargers and ended up hitting. The Chiefs even won outright 23-20 as 3.5-point dogs. I’ll go with Brady almost every time. The line opened at Patriots -14 and moved to -17 so the public is all over the Patriots with the high spread. I am fully expecting a rout tonight with Matt Cassel out for the Chiefs just like everyone else is. The Chiefs may also be without their best corner Brandon Flowers. I’ve already had a big week and hate high spreads so this is going to be just a small play.

Prediction: Patriots 38 – Chiefs 10

Pick Against the Spread: Patriots -17 (Confidence: 3/5)…

Question: I need some help picking my RB/WR/FLEX for week 12.

I’m in a 12-man PPR league.

RB: Peyton Hillis, Beanie Wells, Donald Brown, Danny Woodhead. (Pick 2)
WR: Roddy White, Andre Johnson, Mike Wallace, Santana Moss, Mike Thomas (Pick 2)
Flex: Anyone out of the RB or WR above. (Pick 1)

Thoughts? I have too many good WR to choose from and not enough RB choices. I am 6-5 so far this year, with 3 losses by under 10 points.

Best answer:

RB: I would go with Hillis and Woodhead.

WR: Start Roddy White, Andre Johnson and Mike Wallace.  Those are all very easy choices.  You have great wide receivers, but running back is a problem.

FLEX: Beanie Wells.

Know better? Leave your own answer in the comments!…