NCAA SMART BET: Saturday, September 15, 2012

NAVY (+7) at Penn State: Too many reasons not to take a chance on Navy in this great spot. First, PSU comes off a heartbreaking loss to Virginia last week. A game they should have won as they benefitted from four Virginia turnovers, but missed four field goals. Second, Navy comes off a bye after playing pretty poorly in Ireland verse ND two weeks ago. Third, PSU is still a depleted football team and facing that triple option of Navy would not be easy for any team. I look for Navy to ground and pound PSU early, which should lead to very close game. Finally, you have to wonder where PSU is mentally after the crazy off-season, a tough loss at home during week 1, and a heartbreaking loss in week 2. Even for a good football team this would be a tough spot. Play 2 units on Navy (+7). Play 1 unit on Navy (+225).

ALABAMA (-20) at Arkansas. Arkansas comes off a very embarrasing loss last week to ULM. Arkansas was ranked in the top 10 and probably had outside hopes of playing in a meaningful bowl game. Now all hope of that is gone so you have to wonder where this team will be mentally when facing arguably the best team in the country. Second, rumors have it that Arkansas’ starting QB will not start. A second string QB against this Alabama defense can only smell trouble. This is pretty much a no brainer. Alabama can simply name the score in this one. Play on Ala for 2 units.

ULM vs AUBURN (-15.5). Basically see above. ULM comes off their best win in school history. I am sure every player on the team lived the high life this week, including the coaching staff. Now they are expected to go back on the road and face another SEC powerhouse in Auburn. I know this is a big number and Auburn has not looked that impressive, but this is the spot for them to go out and turn their season around. Lay the points. Play on Auburn for 1 unit.