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Sunday Night Pick: 49ers vs. Lions

Posted by in NFL Picks on September 16th, 2012 | Comment »

49ers vs. Lions Pick Against the SpreadWe hit both our 1:00 picks with the Texans/Bengals teaser and Bucs (+7.5). We gave some of that back with Dallas. My warnings about Seattle’s home field and the Cowboys record following a division game came to fruition. Those two trends threw up a red flag that I should have listed to. I have another play on Washington. If they win, I’m up big for the day, and if they lose, then I’m even for the day. We have some room to make a play on tonight’s game, but is it worth taking?

DETROIT LIONS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-7)

The 49ers were absolutely dominant last week on the road against the Packers. Other than a punt rerun that they gave up, their defense was absolutely flawless and their offense imposed their will over the Packers defense by moving the chains running the ball and completing passes when Alex Smith dropped back. The Lions weren’t as impressive in week 1 due to Matthew Stafford turning the ball over several times and keeping the Rams in the game.

60% of the public is taking the 49ers against the spread and 55% like the over 46. I picked the 49ers earlier in the week with a 5/10 confidence pick. They should win this one at home, but the Lions should be able to keep this one within a touchdown throughout most of the game. I give the Lions a good chance of getting the cover, but I’ll give a slight lean to 49ers (-7).

When these teams faced each other last year in Detroit, the 49ers came out with a 25-19 win. I’m going to stick with the 49ers here. After last week’s performance, I put them #2 in my power rankings and with the Patriots and Ravens losing this week, they’re now #1 in the Power Rankings going into this game. The Lions one-dimensional offense is what will end up hurting them in this one. The 49ers can rush four and drop seven into coverage all game to keep the Lions passing game in check, much like they did against Aaron Rodgers and Rodgers became extremely frustrated. Lions are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Week 2 has been kind the 49ers, as they’re 5-0-1 ATS in their last six in week 2.

I think you’ll be better off giving up the points than teasing the line down in order to guess at the over 39 or under 53 as this could either be a defensive tussle like the last one or a higher scoring affair. My pick for tonight’s game is the 49ers. I’m not going to make it a high confidence play, but something worth a modest play to hopefully end the day on a positive note. I’d rather put a bigger bet on the Falcons tomorrow and then wait to see what week 3 has on tap.

Prediction: 49ers 27 – Lions 17

Pick Against the Spread: 49ers -7 (Confidence: 5/10)



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