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SMART BET College Football Week 11

Posted by in College Football Picks on November 10th, 2012 | Comment »

Coming off our strongest week of the year going 4-1 ats. I see several “spot” plays this week that should be good spots to exploit some bad lines.

1. TEXAS A&M (+13.5) vs. Alabama: This is purely a spot play. Alabama comes off the huge emotional win last week over LSU. A&M is playing great football right now and has all year. Their only two losses came against Florida, during Week 2, and to LSU. I don’t think A&M can pull the upset, but they couldn’t be playing much better. A&M catches Alabama in a perfect spot, which will hopefully lead to an exciting close game. Take the points with A&M for 1 unit.

2. MISSISSIPPI STATE (+15) vs LSU: Again, spot play. Miss St comes off two embarrasing losses after starting the season 7-0. Clearly Miss St benefited from an early weak schedule. Miss St. is a good football team, but they cannot match talent with LSU. However, LSU comes off one of the toughest losses you will see all year. The loss to Bama also eliminates any national title hopes they still had. LSU is used to playing for national titles and you have to wonder where this team is mentally since they don’t have a whole lot to play for now. I look for Miss St to play their best game of the year. I think this should be a very low scoring affair so take the points with Miss St. for 1 unit.

3. Colorado at ARIZONA (-29): I was all over UCLA last week in a spot play against Arizona and I was dead on as UCLA won 66-10. However, I expected Az to play terrible and they did just that; clearly they had not stopped partying from the USC win the week prior. Now, a week removed from the embarrassing loss to UCLA they come back home as big favorites over Colorado. I fully look for them to rebound here. Az is not great, but their spread offense will definitely pose problems for a Colorado team that is just terrible and has nothing to play for. Take AZ in a blowout for 1 unit.

4. UNLV (PK) vs. Colorado State: Don’t get me wrong, UNLV isn’t a good football, but I do like the direction they are going right now. I was on them last week as the easily beat New Mexico. UNLV has a legitimate shot at finishing the year on a four game winning streak, yes I did use UNLV and winning streak in the same sentence. They are playing fundamentally sound and not making mistakes, keys to winning on the road. What can you say about CSU, their bad, really bad. Their defense can’t stop anyone and really haven’t been able to all year. I think UNLV comes in really focused and ready to ride this streak through the end of the year. Play on UNLV for 1 unit.

 

 



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