College Football Picks

Andrew Luck to throw darts all over Duke.

Here are a few shots in the dark for the NCAA week 2 action. I’m not going to pretend I did a ton of quality research into these picks, but let’s put a few picks up on the board and see how they play out. NFL is my forte, not NCAA. However, I want to put some picks up for college football to test my skills before putting up big wages on the action. I don’t like to make any big college plays until week 3 when I can truly evaluate teams. Of the picks, I’m fairly confident in Stanford, California, and Iowa.

Do your own due diligence on the games before taking any picks. I’m siding with mostly road favorites, which I don’t like to do, but I don’t see the games coming out any other way. I’ll also see if our college football guru, Brandon, will be back for another season. Don’t forget to check out our pick ’em league. Sign up before Sunday.

Stanford -20.5 over DUKE — I loved Stanford last week and they rolled 57-3. Duke doesn’t have the offense to hang with Stanford and their defense surrenders a lot of points.

Iowa -6.5 over IOWA STATE — Iowa’s tough D should shut down Iowa State while the Iowa offense gets the job done.

California -6.5 over COLORADO — California looked good against a decent Fresno State squad last week while Colorado came out flat against Hawaii. Colorado has questions on D. Look for Cal to roll.

TCU +1 over AIR FORCE and OVER 50 — Air Force has a quality team. TCU almost came back to beat Baylor last week, but ended up falling short …

Glad to be back on the football scene, definitely the best time of the year for sports in my opinion.

Brock Osweiler threw for 262 yards with a 71.8 completion percentage in week one.

I am typing this article up at 5:04 pm ET and currently the line we have for this game is Arizona State giving 10 to Missouri. The line opened up at seven and has now bounced to ten. When it was at seven I loved the Arizona State pick, but now that it’s ten, ehhh I think I’m going to lay off betting on the spread. Instead, I see a lock in the under. The obvious reason behind this pick is due to the fact that yes, Missouri did only put up ten points against the MAC Miami Redhawks. Missouri just outgained the Redhawks getting 291 yards of offense compared to Miami’s 270.

Then there are the number of injuries for Arizona State. Cornerback Omar Bolden, linebacker Brandon Magee, and wide receiver T.J. Simpsons are just a few of the key injuries racked up on their sideline. Missouri also has Jacquies Smith and Will Ebner out for them who are two key players.

The under has hit in six of Missouri’s last seven games. The under has hit in four of Missouri’s last five road games. The under has hit in nine of Arizona State’s last eleven non-conference games.

I like the under in this one, seems a lock.

Prediction: Missouri 17 – Arizona State 24

Play: Under 52.5…

Look for some routes in Week 1 CFB action.

Rather than getting into the razzle-dazzle of breaking down the high-profile week 1 college football games. Let’s throw a few picks up on the board and see how these do. Now, I’m merely trusting my gut here with these picks. Before taking any of these games, please do your own due diligence. I generally don’t like high spreads, but if there’s any time to lay big points in anticipation of a route, it’s week 1 of college football. I have all home team powerhouse programs on the board against the jobbers of college football, which I like.

AUBURN (-24) over Utah State — I smell a good ole’ fashion route to the tune of 40+ points to 3-10. You have to get the home fans into the season after winning the National Championship. Look for Auburn to impress.

MISSOURI (-20) over Miami-Ohio — I like it, don’t love it. Miami-Ohio isn’t a shabby team in the Mid-American Conference, but Missouri should win in a beatdown.

NEBRASKA (-36) over Tennessee-Chattanooga — Week 1 is the time to pick up routings. You think Tennessee-Chattanooga is going to score against the Nebraska defense? QB Taylor Martinez is an absolute stud. He’ll be ready to become a household name this season. I’m thinking this one ends 45-0.

MICHIGAN (-14) over Western Michigan — Denard Robinson was insane his freshman year. I want to see some follow up in his sophomore year. Nice start to week 1 with a Michigan matchup at home.

NOTRE DAME (-10) over Southern Florida — ND returning 17 starters. A lot of people are raving about this Notre Dame team this year. The ND defense should be solid. On offense, you …

Will LSU's defensive line shut down LeMichael James?

NO. 4 LSU TIGERS VS. NO. 3 OREGON DUCKS (-3)

This game is riddled with suspensions on both sides. The key suspensions are LSU QB Jordan Jefferson and Oregon CB Cliff Harris. However, the loss of Jefferson is not a major blow to LSU. The LSU offense was able to do just fine last season despite Jefferson’s subpar 7 TD and 10 INTs last season while completing just 56% of his passes. LSU beat both Florida and Alabama in the regular season. His backup is Jarrett Lee, who some consider a better pocket passer than Jefferson, and Lee took a few snaps almost every game last season. Lee is prone to make critical mistakes though, so expect LSU to heavily rely on their running game led by sophomore RB Spencer Ware.

The key matchup this game is the LSU defensive line vs. the Oregon offensive line, who will be trying to move the ball with Heisman hopeful LeMichael James. With three new starters on the Oregon defensive line, LSU may win that matchup and dominate the trenches. The LSU defense was ranked 13th in the nation last season.

Although LSU may win the battle at the scrimmage, Oregon can swing LeMichael James out on screens, wheel routes, swing routes, work some play action, and have returning QB Darron Thomas hit his speedy receivers. Thomas completed 61% of his passes for 2,881 yards, 30 TDs and 9 INTs last season.The Oregon defense isn’t too shabby either. They finished 34th in the nation last season and will be returning 5 starters. However, they’ll be without key cornerback and playmaking returnman Cliff Harris.

This is a great game to kickoff the college football season in …

TCU HORNED FROGS (-3.5) @ BAYLOR BEARS

The player to watch this game is Baylor QB Robert Griffin III (see highlights after the jump). Griffin threw for 3,501 yards and 22 TDs last year, completed 67% of his passes, finished third in passer rating in the Big 12 last year, and added 635 yards and 8 TDs with his legs last season. That helped Baylor become the 13th-ranked offense last season. That type of play will have him on the early Heisman watch and he also has the benefit of five returning receivers.  We’ll see how RB3 performs against a TCU team that has not lost a regular season game since 2008. But with QB Andy Dalton and half of TCU’s starters gone, is TCU the same team they were in years past?

They have a new QB to replace Andy Dalton. TCU’s new QB is Casey Pachall. Pachall is entering his sophomore year and was a top high-school talent. Pachall will have plenty of help in the backfield with Ed Wesley, Matthew Tucker and Waymon James returning. The three combined for 2,300 yards and 23 TDs last season. However, TCU returns just one lineman. On the defensive side, TCU had a top-notch defense last year that surrendered just 12 PPG and 228 YPG. Although TCU has lost 6 starters, they’ve held onto LB Tank Karter, the Mountain West defensive player of the year, and have plenty other key players back on D.

Although Baylor has an impressive QB, their defense is extremely poor — ranked 104 last year and giving up 435 YPG and 30.5 PPG. That poor unit also lost a lot players. Baylor finished last year 7-6. In their matchup last year, TCU destroyed Baylor …

Florida International Golden Panthers vs. Toledo Rockets
Both of these teams are very happy to be playing in a bowl game this year. Florida International started playing their best football toward the end of the season. They finished their season with a very impressive 4-1 SU

Page won't be enough for the Rockets tonight.

record. On the other hand, Toledo lost their starting quarterback Austin Dantin during their match-up with Eastern Michigan, a game in which they came out victorious.

Toledo just isn’t that good on defense. They allowed 130 yards per game this year along with 25 touchdowns on the ground. The only thing they have going for them is their pass rush (irony), with 27 sacks on the year. So they do oppose at least a threat on defense. FIU made a very large improvement on its run defense cleaning up about 75 yards from what they allowed in 2009.

These two teams have split their two games from the past two seasons. I see Florida International still coming out on top tonight though. I see a lot of people on Toledo tonight, yes Page is very good and explosive, but just him will not win the game tonight for the Rockets.

Prediction: Golden Panthers 34 – Rockets 24

Pick Against the Spread: Florida International (-1.5)…

Utah Utes vs. Boise State Broncos (-16.5)

Here is some information about tonight’s game. Boise State’s defense is ranked fourth in the nation, that includes both scoring defense and overall defense. Utah will be in trouble if they look to run the ball tonight as Boise

Finishing fourth in the Heisman race, Kellen Moore looks to end the Utes' nine-game bowl win streak.

State is ranked sixth against the run. Kellen Moore finished fourth in the Heisman voting. Although he may not have the strongest arm, he makes great decisions and is very accurate throwing the ball. He finished with 3,506 passing yards, 33 touchdowns, and with those 33 touchdowns he only threw five interceptions. Utah was once ranked 6th in the AP Poll after opening up to an 8-0 start, saw their BCS Bowl dreams crushed with back-to-back losses to TCU and The Fighting Irish. They have won nine straight bowl games, with the first two actually being won in Las Vegas, where tonight’s game is being played.

Utah can play some stellar defense. It really just depends what team shows up. They allow under 20.0 points per game. As stated earlier, Boise State has a very good defense as well. The last time these two teams met, Boise won handily 36-3, and I see another similar score, low. Out of Boise’s last five games, four of them have gone under the total. Defenses will step up tonight.

Prediction: Broncos 35 – Utes 17

Pick: Under (58)

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