College Football Picks

The Bowl Season is upon us and I will be releasing as many picks as possible or at least my leans for as many games as I think have some value.  In general, you can be very successful simply betting the underdogs based on the past 25 years of bowl games.

Washington (+14) vs Nebraska for 2 units: The primary reason I am in love with this game is based on motivation.  Very rarely in college football do you get in season revenge game and that is exactly what you have here.  Nebraska humiliated Washington early this year on their own turf so you know Washington will come in completely fired up and focused.  Secondly, Washington made this bowl game by sheer determination and motivation to play in a bowl game so they will be very excited to be playing in this game.  Nebraska, on the other hand, has no motivation for playing in this game.  They are coming off a very tough loss to Oklahoma in which they could have been playing in a BCS game and now are playing in the meaningless Holiday Bowl.  In addition, the QB situation is totally up in the air for Nebraska.  So unless they resolve their team conflict issues, injuries, and find some motivation on the way to San Diego my money will be on Washington and the points.  Final Wash 19 Neb 7. WINNER

Notre Dame (+3) vs Miami for 2 units. We are back to the key ingredient of any bowl game here as we must focus on motivation.  ND has played very motivated after the death of the camera guy and the loss to Tulsa at home.  Whatever Brian Kelly did in that bye week really put this team …

Sorry this post is late, but there wasn’t not much on the card this weekend that I really liked, but I was able to key in on 3 games one of which is my third GAME OF THE YEAR! 2-0 GOY Record this year.

GAME OF THE YEAR:

ARMY (+8.5) VS Notre Dame: This game is being played at Yankee stadium so there isn’t really a home field advantage for anyone in this game as ND fans travel well, but NY Stadium is closer to Army’s campus.  Notre Dame is coming off an absolutely huge win last week as they stomped Utah. I really wasn’t surprised by that game as ND was at home off a bye week with plenty of time to prepare and Utah’s season and any hopes of playing in a BCS game had already been crushed the previous week by TCU. While I do give ND credit for stepping up and playing a great game, they still benefitted from the spot in the schedule.  Now ND has to forget the biggest win the year and lay more than a touchdown in a big rivarly game. Army runs a great triple option that is going to give the ND defense fits all day long.  ND is weak agains the option as shown by their crushing defeat verse Navy at home earlier this year. I don’t expect things to be a whole different.  I have Army winning outright 24-20. 

NC STATE (+2.5) at North Carolina for 1 unit.

Florida State at MARYLAND (+4) for 1 unit.

Good Luck…

After careful scrutinizing the card for this Saturday I are only a couple  plays that I am throwin my own money at, as I just see a lot of games that could easily go either way, I will indicate those plays with unit values.  Some of the games I do like require some pretty big dogs to make some pretty big steps forward to be competitive enough to hang around and get the cover.

The Plays for Saturday Nov 13th:

Texas A&M at Baylor (+3) for 1 unit.  My Prediction Baylor 30-28.  A&M coming in off a huge win now go on the road as a favorite. Baylor coming off a bad loss heads back home and takes on a very weak pass defense that they should be able to clear advantage of throughout the game. Baylor wins outright.

Penn State vs Ohio State (-18) for 1 unit. My prediction Ohio State 35-14. PSU looked terrible last week, but played inspired ball in the second half to make sure Joe Pa got his 400th win, but if you watched much of that game it was clear Northwestern was better and should have won. OSU is unbeatable at home and still has an outside chance at the BCS Championship game so look for them to come in really focused and win going away.

BYU at Colorado State (+6.5) for 1 unit. My Prediction CSU 24-20. The key to this game for me is that BYU is 0-3 SU on the road this year and there is no way I can lay points with any team who has played that bad on the road. Senior day at CSU as well. CSU is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS at home. Take the points.…

Buffalo Bulls @ Ohio Bobcats (-15.5)

Tonight features a game where the Buffalo Bulls, coming off a three game losing streak, will travel to a very good team in the Ohio Bobcats. Buffalo hasn’t faced much competition, and will be challenged tonight. The Bills won’t know just

Bobcats' offense has been hot.

how bad they are until they face Akron and Eastern Michigan in their last two games of the season, another two very bad teams, Akron being at about as low as it gets.

No team has a serious edge over the other in the head to head matchup. Last year the Bobcats won by a field goal. Since the end of September though, Ohio is 5-0 SU and is tied for first in the MAC East. The Bobcats average 341 yards per game and about 30 PPG. They have scored at least 30 points in each of their last five games.

I think Ohio should win easily. The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last five November games, as well as 5-1 ATS in their last six overall.

Prediction: Bobcats 34 – Bulls 13

Pick Against the Spread: Bobcats -15.5…

Huge weekend this past week, 3.9 units of profit and easily cashed my second GOY with Maryland winning 62-14.  Several games this week starting with a home dog outright winner tonight.

Tuesday November 2: Middle Tennessee State vs Arkansas State (+2.5) for 1 unit. My numbers have ASt winning this one outright 28-24, so I will gladly take the points here at home.

OUTRIGHT WINNER ARKST 51 MDST 24

Saturday Plays:

Air Force at Army (+7) for 2 units: My prediction for the game Army 27 AF 22.  Strong situational play in favor of Army here. First, it has been well documented over the years that west coast teams really struggle playing 12est games.  This game is slated for 12est, 10am Mtn time.  AF is coming off a disappointing rivalry loss as last week they failed to win or cover against Utah. This week they are called to step up again for another huge rivarly game and Army is a very strong team that will be ready for this big challenge.  I give the defensive edge here to Army and that just adds to value here with Army. Both teams offensives will be about equal as they both have strong rushing attacks, but both defensives should be prepared.

Northwestern (+6.5) vs Penn State for 1 unit: My prediction PSU 23-21.  Northwestern brings a very balanced offensive attack that will challenge this PSU defense.  I still think PSU has a lot of questions and weaknesses on offensive side of the ball.  They had success last week, but that Michigan defense is one of the worst in the country.  Look for this game to be close throughout and may be decided on who controls the ball and doesn’t turn it over. 

Colorado …

I apologize to my FF, Faithful Followers, for the split in the NC State FSU game. There should have been multiple extra scores in the game, but hey that’s the game of football. Today I have done a lot of researching and a few things have caught my eye. Saturday will be the day of the OVER.

1.) Tennessee Over 49

– I like the over in this game. That is all to be said for this one.

2.)Florida Over 47.5

-I like the over in this game because of a few different statistics: Florida’s games have gone over 10 out of the last 11 times after allowing 200 yards rushing their past game, they are 4-1 after allowing 20 points or less in their previous game, 4-1 after an ATS loss, and the Gators games go over in 8 of their last 10 games at neutral sites. Georgia’s games have gone over in 5 or their last 6 games as favorites, and the over is 4-1 in their last 5 games while playing in October. (courtesy of covers.com).

3.) Iowa Over 50.5

-Iowa’s defense is built for more interior play. They are still, for the most part, a traditional smash mouth football type of team that the Big 10 has lost sight of. Iowa did hold Michigan’s spread attack to minimal points, but with Denard and the Wolverines being inside the red zone of the Hawkeyes  while turning the ball over proves to me that a more open type of offensive attack could do the Iowa defense in. Now don’t get me wrong I’m not saying that either of these teams aren’t strong defensive teams, but I’m just going by stats and trends. Michigan State’s games have gone …

Solid week last weekend with winners on Alabama and Louisville. Indiana was my only loser as they were plagued with turnovers. I am releasing Game of the Year #2 this weekend.

GAME OF THE YEAR #2:

Wake Forest at Maryland (-5) for 2 units. This Maryland team is the most improved squad in all of college football.  I am not going to say that they are ready to win the ACC, but they are a fundamentally sound football team that week in and week out play consistent football.  Consistency leads to great betting opportunities and this is what we have here.  After calculating the line/score for this game I have Maryland winning 38-19, so win I saw this 5-point spread I jumped all over it.  WF has really struggled on the road this year going 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS and I don’t see anything that would lead me to believe they are going to be much more competitive here this weekend.  Maryland is very athletic both on offense and defense and rarely turn the ball over. Look for Maryland to win this one going away.

GOY WINNER! MARYLAND WINS 62-14!

Louisville (+9.5) at Pittsburgh for 1 unit: Lost 20-3

Clemson at Boston College (+7) for 1 unit: Again, got to lean with the better defense. Clemson has had a propensity for turning the ball over several times this year and there is no way you can trust that offense on the road laying a touchdown. But in Clemson’s defense, if BC doesn’t rise to the occasion it could be a long day.  OUTRIGHT WINNER 16-10.

Baylor (+7.5) at Texas for 1 unit: OUTRIGHT WINNER 30-22.

San Jose State at New Mexico State (+3.5) for 1 unit: I have to …