College Football Picks

Glad to be back posting for the 2012 NCAA Football season. Long-time readers of the site know me as the NCAA guy, especially with my Bowl Special from 2010 where my Bowl picks went 9-3 against the spread. I took 2011 off from posting on the site due to work demands, but very glad to be back to continue posting my NCAA picks.

Pittsburgh at CINCINNATI (-5). Thursday night football starts off tonight with a Big East battle between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. Pittsburgh comes off a pretty bad loss to Youngstown State, who in all honesty is actually a decent team. The question really comes down to whether Pittsburgh can get up for this game off the bad loss. There is a strong trend to play against first year coaches coming off a loss, 86-120-4 ATS, in the following game. I believe Cincinnati’s defense should handle Pittsburgh’s offense, who was only able to manage 17 points against Youngstown State. I don’t think Pittsburgh is that bad of a team, I just think this spot posses a lot of difficult obstacles for them to overcome. Play on Cincinnati (-5) for 1 unit.

FINAL: Cincinnati 34 – Pittsburgh 10…

Here’s what I like for Saturday.  King also posted some of his college picks.

Temple (-8) over TOLEDO — I was debating taking Temple (+8) over Maryland last week and ended up passing since I wanted to see what Temple was made out of. Temple ended up beating Maryland 38-7. Temple almost beat Penn State, losing that contest 14-10. In Temple’s opening two games they beat Akron 41-3 and Villanova 42-7. Temple is a legit program and you should see it this game.

Baylor (-3.5) over KANSAS STATE — I underestimated K-State a bit when I took Miami. Kansas State QB Collin Klein was solid in that contest and made Miami pay with his legs when his receivers were covered. However, the QB to talk about is Robert Griffin III, who is likely the front-runner for Heisman at this point in the season. Griffin has thrown more TD passes than incompletions this season. He has thrown for 962 yards, completed 85% of his passes, and has 13 TDs and 0 INTs. His team averages 51.3 PPG. I’ll take Baylor.

Arizona (+12.5) over USC — USC hasn’t been blowing out opponents this season like in year’s past. The last four contests between Arizona and USC have been decided by 7 points of less. Minnesota alsmost beat USC in their opener and USC just lost on the road to Arizona State. USC is a mediocre football team. Take the points.

Georgia Tech (-10) over NC STATE — Georgia Tech’s offense should be able to run all over NC State.…

Here are the games that I LOVE this weekend:

Friday Night Weeknight Guarantee (1-0-0):

Utah State (+7.5) vs. BYU W

Saturday Locks (2-2-0):

Northwestern (+10) vs. Illinois W

Air Force (+3.5) vs. Navy W

Kent State vs. Ohio (-16) L

Auburn vs. South Carolina over 59.5 L

Saturday Normal Plays (1-3-0):

North Carolina vs. East Carolina (+7) L

Nebraska (+10) vs. Wisconsin L

Notre Dame (-12) vs. Purdue W

Baylor (-3.5) vs. Kansas State L

 …

SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS (-2.5) @ PITTSBURGH PANTHERS

Thursday night presents itself with a nice betting opportunity when Thursday Night Football features a week 5 Big East matchup between the South Florida Bulls (4-0, 3-1 ATS) visiting the Pittsburgh Panthers (2-2, 1-3 ATS).

The Bulls come into this game ranked 14th in the nation. They have been extremely impressive so far this season, starting out by beating Notre Dame on the road 23-20. Notre Dame came into Pittsburgh last week and escaped with a 15-12 win. Since the Bulls week 1 stunner over the Fighting Irish, the Bulls have demolished Mickey Mouse opponents in Ball State, Florida A&M, and UTEP by winning those contests 37-7, 70-17, and 52-24.

I have not been impressed with Pittsburgh this season. The Panthers barely beat Maine and lost against Iowa 31-27 by blowing a 27-10 lead. How do you give up 3 unanswered touchdowns in the 4th quarter? Pittsburgh managed to do it.

Pittsburgh’s offense has been simply average. While the running game gets going at times with RB Ray Graham, QB Tino Sunseri is average at best, and fails to stretch the field with the deep ball. I expect the Bulls to key in on Graham and force Sunseri to beat them with his arm. Sunseri’s 4 TD/4 INT season doesn’t instill confidence in Pittsburgh fans. I have much more faith in the dual-threat senior QB B.J. Daniels. The Bulls have been on fire all season long, albeit against 3 weak opponents.

When these teams faced each other last season, Pitt ended up winning 17-10 as 3-point favorites on the road. South Florida QB B.J. Daniels struggled against Pittsburgh — 15/29, 132 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT, and 6 rushes for -5 yards. …

My college football mojo is starting to kick in. After a 3-2 ATS week in week 2, I had a strong week in week 3 with a 4-1 ATS record. I’ve been riding Stanford the entire season and have hit on them 3 straight weeks. However, Stanford isn’t playing this week. They’ll be back on October 1 against UCLA and I’ll be happy to give up 14-17 points to take them. Let’s see what’s on tap for week 4.

After scanning the games, there’s not a whole lot of games that I really like. Last week, I liked a handful of games, especially Wisconsin and Stanford. I just don’t see many games that I want to jump on this week. I just have two picks for the time being: Florida and Miami. Miami would be my top play, followed by a potentially small play on Florida.

Florida (-19.5) over KENTUCKY — The spread is too high for me to take, but Florida has blown out Kentucky the last three years: 48-14, 41-7, 63-5. Florida is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 on the road. Florida should win by 3 touchdowns in my opinion.

MIAMI (-12.5) over Kansas State — Miami looked excellent against Ohio State last week. Lamar Miller is going to have a big season. Look for him to have a big game against this Kansas State defense. Kansas State was awful against the run last season, giving up 5.9 yards-per-carry and 229.1 yards-per-game. Miller tore apart Ohio State’s defense and I think he’ll have another incredible performance. He’s averaging 6.9 YPC and 151.5 YPG this season. Some are calling a Miami let down after last week’s “emotional” win, but I don’t see it happening.

SATURDAY MORNING UPDATE:

Might …

Last week my college football picks went 3-2 ATS. I won on Stanford, TCU, and TCU over, but fell short on California and Iowa, whose games went into overtime. My forte is NFL football, but I usually like to put up a few college football picks up on Saturday morning and place some modest wagers in comparison to the NFL action. I have five picks for you today. If you’re a new visitor to the site, be sure to sign up for our pick ’em league before Sunday. Good luck.

Northwestern (-5) over ARMY/Under 54.5 — Army’s defense has struggled so far this year. Northwestern is a solid team that was able to beat Boston College on the road. Army solely relies on its run game as its passing game is non-existent. Although Army piles up yards on the ground, Northwestern has a more balanced offensive attack. Unfortunately, Northwestern’s QB Dan Persa is out, but his backup was efficient in managing the game last week, 10/13 for 104 yards, while relying on his running game. Northwestern has averaged 273 rushing yards in their two games, while Army has given up an average of 217 rushing yards per game. With both teams relying on their running game, the clock should be eaten up and the points should come in under 54.5.  Northwestern 31 – Army 20.

FINAL: Army 21 – Northwestern 14. Hit on the under, loss on the spread.

Wisconsin (-16.5) over Northern Illinois @ Soldier Field — Wisconsin is strong on both sides of the ball. They have a solid passing game with QB Russell Wilson and a tremendous running game to boot. Their defense is also one of the top D’s in the nation. They trampled UNLV …

What a week two it was in college football. My “shot in the dark” college football picks went 3-2. My top play in Stanford -20.5 over Duke rolled 44-14. I’m loving this Stanford team this year and will be the first spread I look up in college football each week, but look for the generous spreads on them to end.

My pick in Iowa -6.5 over Iowa State went into triple overtime in a thriller.  California -6.5 was another pick that wound up in overtime. My last play of TCU +1 over Air Force and over 50 points both hit with TCU winning 35-19. Like I said, expect TCU to put up at least 30 while Air Force puts up at least 20.

My recommendation on the big Michigan vs. Notre Dame game was no action and you clearly saw why. The game was an instant classic, but if you had money on the game, you better get your blood pressure checked. 3 touchdowns in the final 2 minutes of the game. Are you serious? Another thriller to add to the crazy Georgia vs. South Carolina and Auburn vs. Mississippi State games. What an awesome week of college football.

For the NFL games this Sunday, I’m going to pick 5.  Quick plug for our PICK ‘EM LEAGUE before we get to the games. Sign up for a chance to win a free NFL Shop t-shirt.

I like Cardinals -6.5 over Panthers. Expect Cam Newton to make a few rookie mistakes in his first NFL regular season start on the road. His preseason stats don’t really whoo me. His completion percentage and yards-per-attempt numbers are dismal. The Cardinals pass offense should be solid this year with Kevin Kolb and …