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Alabama vs. Duke Pick Against the Spread

Posted by in College Football Picks on September 14th, 2010 | 397 Comments
Alabama vs. Duke Pick Against the Spread

Alabama's running game should roll all over Duke.

ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (-23.5) @ DUKE BLUE DEVILS

Last week I took Alabama (-11.5) over Penn State and Alabama won in convincing fashion 24-3, running all over a very respectable Big 10 defense in Penn State with 180 yards on the ground and 229 through the air for over 400 yards of offense. Naturally, I would look to ride them against this week as they started off the season 2-0 ATS.

We all know that Duke’s defense is terrible. They lost to Wake Forest this past week 54-48 and beat Elon by a score of 41-27. Duke gave up an average of 452 yards in those games and was miserable against the run, giving up an average of 8.4 yards per carry. Against a team that loves to run the football and imposes their will over top-tier NCAA defenses, I don’t see how Alabama doesn’t score on essentially every drive that they get the football, especially considering that Duke gave up 54 points to Wake Forest and allowed 27 to Elon. The Crimson Tide should be due for at least 40 points in this game.

Some betting trends that I’ve spotted:

  • ALAB are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games.
  • Over is 6-2-1 in ALAB last 9 games in September.
  • ALAB are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games on grass.
  • Over is 19-5-3 in DUKE last 27 home games.
  • DUKE are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 home games.

Based on Duke’s history and the trends, you know that Duke will give up a ton of points. Last week I took Oklahoma (-9.5) over Florida State and this line even drifted down to Oklahoma (-7) by game time for …

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