Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama's running game should roll all over Duke.

ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (-23.5) @ DUKE BLUE DEVILS

Last week I took Alabama (-11.5) over Penn State and Alabama won in convincing fashion 24-3, running all over a very respectable Big 10 defense in Penn State with 180 yards on the ground and 229 through the air for over 400 yards of offense. Naturally, I would look to ride them against this week as they started off the season 2-0 ATS.

We all know that Duke’s defense is terrible. They lost to Wake Forest this past week 54-48 and beat Elon by a score of 41-27. Duke gave up an average of 452 yards in those games and was miserable against the run, giving up an average of 8.4 yards per carry. Against a team that loves to run the football and imposes their will over top-tier NCAA defenses, I don’t see how Alabama doesn’t score on essentially every drive that they get the football, especially considering that Duke gave up 54 points to Wake Forest and allowed 27 to Elon. The Crimson Tide should be due for at least 40 points in this game.

Some betting trends that I’ve spotted:

• ALAB are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games.
• Over is 6-2-1 in ALAB last 9 games in September.
• ALAB are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games on grass.
• Over is 19-5-3 in DUKE last 27 home games.
• DUKE are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 home games.

Based on Duke’s history and the trends, you know that Duke will give up a ton of points. Last week I took Oklahoma (-9.5) over Florida State and this line even drifted down to Oklahoma (-7) by game time for …

Until further notice, Alabama looks like the play this week.

We had a big Saturday last week with 2 big wins, but we lost a little juice in the NFL. Won on Miami, lost on San Fran. Won on Ravens, lost on Chargers. We ripped off two college wins in week 2 action and that’s what is making me think that college football is where I need to be looking at. The Sooners and Crimson Tide came up big as I suggested and I looked at only the top 4 college football games. Let’s see what big games are on tap in week 3.

We start off on Thursday with Cincinnati @ N.C. State (-2). Both teams have shown that they’re able to score, but both have very poor defenses, so I’m looking for a close higher-scoring showdown. Based on that, I’ll be curious to see the over/under is because I’ll think anything under 47 points is worth taking a deeper look into.

If you’re looking to ride Ohio State, you’ll be giving up 31-32 points to take them at home against Ohio. Considering that they’ll win by something like 42-3, it looks like a win, but too many points for my taste. I don’t take many high spreads like this one. If Ohio manage just 13 points, they should cover.

Maryland (+11) @ West Virginia is interesting. Maryland has impressed me with a big win over Navy while West Virginia just lost to Marshall. This could be a rebound game for WVU, but I think Maryland with +11 is enticing. I’ll wait to see what Brandon likes because his specialty is finding good underdogs to take. After looking at the injury report though, you will want to hold off …

Four great games are on tap week 2 and I like Alabama.

Here are the big games that are on tap for week 2 of college football:

• No. 20 Florida State @ No. 7 Oklahoma (-9)
• Michigan @ Notre Dame (-4)
• No. 13 Miami @ No. 2 Ohio State (-9.5)
• No. 19 Penn State @ No. 1 Alabama (-11.5)

We’ll be sure to preview those games. Here are my early thoughts on those games.

I really like Alabama next week. I would absolutely love this spread at -9.5. I think they should win by 14-21. At 11.5, PSU has a shot at covering, but I doubt it.

If Michigan was at home, I would absolutely love that pick, but ND’s home-field advantage is undeniable. I thought Michigan would get 3 in this one, so the 4 is generous. It looks like Rich Rodriguez found his next Pat White in Denard Robinson. Robinson was lights out in the Connecticut game (19/22, 186 passing yards, 196 rushing yards, 1 passing TD, 1 rushing TD) and if he can repeat that type of performance, Michigan could pull off the upset in South Bend.

I think Ohio State wins, but I count on Miami on keeping the game within reach.

Despite Oklahoma not crushing Utah State this past week, I think Oklahoma has no problem covering the 9 points in this game. Florida State gives up a lot of points. Last year Florida State gave up 37 to Florida, 38 to Miami, 49 to Georgia Tech, 27 to North Carolina, 40 to Clemson, and 26 to Maryland. At home, Oklahoma is due for at least 35 and I don’t think the Seminoles can put up 24 against a Sooners defense that will be …

Here is where my head is at concerning the Saturday college football games. Nothing big here, just some small bets.

1.) Pac 10 Teaser — USC over Arizona, Cal over WASHINGTON — USC and Cal are 7-point favorites, I’ll pair those together and take them at pick ’em games.

2.) Cincinnati -2 over PITTSBURGH — I’ll take advantage of the low spread here. Although Pittsburgh has a quality defense and a running game that will move the ball on Cincy, Cincinnati has one of the best offenses in football and should just outscore Pittsburgh in this one.

3.) Florida -5.5 over ALABAMA — Should be a great game. I say Florida wins by 7-10. Better offense, better defense. Alabama just hasn’t done enough to impress me like Florida has. Plus, Tim Tebow loves Jesus too much for him to lose. Will be really close with the spread, but I’ll take the Gators.…