Archive for October, 2008

I have already covered these picks below, but for those only following my underdog plays I posted them here:

1. West Virginia at Connecticut(+4): Both teams are coming off great wins last week. Again these teams match-up pretty well statistically, however I give a slight advantage to UCONN as they hold the edge in total yards and passing. Both teams play solid defense and that will play an important role in this game. UCONN’s run defense has been very tough holding their opponents to less than 75 yards rushing per, which is critical as WVU ran all over a very tough Auburn defense. I like the fact that WVU 0-2 on the road and UCONN is 5-0 at home. Take UCONN plus the points. (Rating +1) WVU 35 UCONN 13

2. Air Force at Army (+10): This should be another very tight competitive game. AF is having one of their better years, but Army has come on as of late. They have won 3 of 4 after losing their first four games, with the one loss coming on the road in OT. You have to give a slight edge in defense to Army as they allow only about 116 yards rushing compared to AF’s almost 150 per game. The real question comes down to the passing game. These teams rarely pass the ball, but AF has a better aerial attack than Army. I still see this game being a controlled possession game with Time of Possession playing a critical role. Take the points with Army as they should be able to keep this game close. (Rating +1) AF 16 ARMY 7 

3. Tulsa at Arkansas(+7): While Arkansas is not that good of a team they are still by far the …

For those of you wishing to bet on the election I think there is some easy money to be made. BETUS is currently offering a proposition bet listing the number of delegate votes one party may receive. Obama -159.5 McCain +159.5. Why is this easy money, well http://www.yahoo.com posted a poll yestereday that showed Obama winning the election in delegate votes 355 to 156. That is almost by 200 votes. Even if they are off, and I don’t believe they are off by that much, you have almost a 40 point swing there. Take Obama to win in a land slide. (Rating +10). I have never posted a +10, but I just don’t see it going any other way, regardless of your political views.…

My colleague, Brandon Phillips, loves the Colts to win tonight. Although the Colts have a chance to win any game with Peyton Manning, I don’t see the Colts winning the game tonight. They are certainly capable of winning, but you cannot ignore what the Titans have been able to do their first 6 games of the season. Rarely would I suggest betting against a home team on Monday night. The home team simply has a huge advantage in prime-time games. See the Patriots last week, the Browns the week before that over the Giants. Sure, the Vikings were able to escape out of New Orleans with a W, but that was a very odd game to say the least.

The Titans defensive stats alone are enough to avoid taking the Colts tonight. 1st in points per game allowed, 3rd in yards per game allowed, 8th in sacks, 3rd in interceptions, 9th in forced fumbles. Then you have the Colts 29th ranked running defense against the 3rd ranked rushing attack. I expect a monster day from Chris Johnson. He simply hasn’t been able to be stopped.

The bottom line: the Titans have a solid defense at home with a strong rushing attack against a team that’s struggled against the run.

You can’t compare the Titans to the Ravens to argue the Colts should win this game. First, the Colts were at home that game. Second, Joe Flacco was careless with the ball and threw 3 INTs. Third, the Ravens secondary was hammered with injuries and Manning exposed their backup CBs all game long.

In all honesty, I would not bet on tonight’s game. I’m going to say the Titans win in a close one, but as we all know, what …

Some of you, I am sure, have paid money for picks, as most of us have, but don’t you hate it when you want to watch a game and put some money on it, only to find that no one has analyzed the game and given you their two cents. Well this week, that will not be the case. If you want to have some insight on a game you want to drop money on then you will find an analysis of that game here at thepassrush.

Tuesday

1. Buffalo Bulls (+2) at Ohio Bobcats: Ohio is pretty banged up after losing their back-up QB and RB last out. Buffalo is pretty healthy and has played several solid football games this year covering against Pitt, Missouri, and Central Michigan and they beat Temple. Ohio has played a couple tough games covering against Ohio State and Northwestern. Buffalo holds a slight edge in total yards per game, but Ohio’s defense is stronger. I think this game comes down to the success of Buffalo through the air. They pass for about 250 yards per, but Ohio’s defense is only allowing about 180 yards against the pass. Ohio may find it more difficult to score b/c of their injury problems, but their defense should keep this game tight. Buffalo’s defense is very weak giving up almost 400 yards per. This game should be very tight and if Buffalo’s offense can score then they should win this game against a banged up Ohio team. (Rating +2) Final Score: Buffalo 32 Ohio 19

2. Houston (-8) at Marshall: While I don’t generally like going against home dogs sometimes they just simply don’t match up. Houston’s offense is scoring almost 40 per and gaining over 500 …

The underdog plays Week 9: 2-3

Total for the year: 27-19 (59%)

Underdog Units: -3

Other Plays: 1-0

Overall Units of Profit: +2

***I am working on something for the readers for Week 10 in college football: a full analysis of every game on the card. I have a theory that I am working on and the only way I know how to test the theory is to analyze every game. Now I know one week won’t give full evidence to prove my theory, but it could be a sign of whether to pursue it or not.…

Indianapolis (+165) outright win over Tennessee

Examining the stats Tennessee is clearly the favorite and rightly deserves to be, however the Colts will win this game. First, what is the difference between Tennessee and Baltimore? Statistically almost nothing. Both defenses give up about 250 yards per game (rushing under 100 passing almost exactly 179) and both offenses average about 300 yards (Rushing close to 150, passing about 160). Second, what did the Colts do against do to the Ravens? Colts 31 Ravens 3. Thirdly, why were the Colts able to dominate the Ravens? Well Manning and the Colts got their timing back and looked the explosvie offense of old. Manning is still in that preseason form, he missed the preseason because the knee surgery, and he is still looking to find that rhythmn with his offense. So he is going to have some games where he looks that the old Manning and some games that he simply looks old. However, after last weeks complete embarrassment, I am sure the offense will be much more focused and ready to go. The defense will have to do the same thing they did when they played the Ravens. I am sure the Colts defense will pack the box with 8 or even 9 guys to stop the explosive running game of Titans and this should cause more pressure on Collins, forcing him to make quick decisions and possibly poor decisions. The Colts defense has to cause a few turnovers tonight for the Colts to win. In my opinion turnovers is the most critical aspect of this game. If the Colts win the TO category they will win this game. The Colts are 5-0 ATS on Monday Night Football. I know that recently the …

Central Florida vs. Tulsa (-23.5): There is no Sunday Night NFL, but there is one college game showcasing the high-powered offense of Tulsa who is averaging 56 points per game. Central Florida beat Tulsa twice last year covering on both occassions as favorites. However, CF is no where near the team they were last year. The critical issue of this game is CF’s poor road play. 1-2 SU and 1-2 ATS, the offense is only averaging 11 points on the road and has failed to score more than 24 points in any game this year. CF played tough against Miami last weekend while Tulsa continued to roll scoring 77 points against UTEP. Tulsa has not scored less than 54 points in any home game and I don’t think that trend will stop tonight. CF is giving up almost 37 points a game on the road and Tulsa has revenge in mind. I just see CF having trouble to stay with Tulsa’s offense and coupled with its inability to score on the road you have to like Tulsa. (Rating +4)…