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IDEAS ON A NEW SYSTEM

Posted by in NFL General on November 19th, 2008 | 2 Comments

I am always working on coming up with a way to win without having to do countless hours of research. One thing I have learned about gambliing is never bet against a streak. When I go play blackjack I use a progressive method meaning that when I win one hand I increase my bet and continue to do so as long as the streak continues. I don’t double up but lets say I bet $15 and continue to win the progession would continue something like $20, $25, $35, $45, $60, $75 and so on. For me, this has worked out pretty well. The downfall is that you have to win at least two hands in a row to break even, after that it is all profit. For a while I have been trying to figure out a way to logically apply this to sports. So I came up with the idea that if a team has covered or not covered in at least two games in a row I will start betting with them or against them depending on whether they have covered or lost. A few exceptions apply, only bet with the streak as long as the team they are playing against is not on a streak as well. A couple of streaks that have happened this year in football. The Tennessee Titans have covered 9 of 10 with one push. So if we would have started betting with them after their second cover our bets would have looked like this:

1. Bet $27.50 to win $25 total profit $25

2. Bet $38.50 to win $35 total profit $60

3. Bet $55 to win $50 total profit $110

4. Bet $71.50 to win $65 total profit $175

5. Bet $82.50 to win $75 total profit $250

6. Bet $99 to win $90 push

7. Bet $99 to win $90 total proft $340

8. Bet $110 to win $100 total profit $440

As you can see we would have made a profit of $440 basically starting with $27.50. Remember though that the streak will end at some time so if the Titans fail to cover the next with a bet of $125 our total profit would drop to $315, but remember we started with only $27.50. Now there will be losses but the losses will be minimal as we would be betting the minimum. Doing some research, most of the streaks consisted of teams covering or not covering 5 or 6 games in a row, which would still result in a small profit. Other streaks to conisder: (1) Fresno St. has lost 9 ATS, using the same system above we would be up $340, (2) Washington has dropped 8 ATS, (3) last year the Houston Rockets covered 17 straight games, (4) Purdue men’s basketball covered 12 straight games and are already 3-0 ATS this year.

Let me know what you guys think of the system. There are several college football games that fit the system for this weekend. I will post them later if there is some interest.

Here are the games that I feel best fit the system outlined above:

1. Boston College (+2) at Wake Forest Rating +2 BC 24 WF 21

2. NC State (+11) at North Carolina Rating +1 NCST. 41 NC 10

3. Tennessee at Vanderbilt (-3) Rating +4 UT 20 Vandy 10

4. Michigan State (+14.5) at Penn State Rating +1 PSU 49 MSU 18

5. Stanford (+9) at California Rating +2 CAL 37 STANDFORD 16

6. E. Carolina at UAB (+9) Rating +4 ECU 17 UAB 13

7. Oregon State at Arizona (-2.5) Rating +2 OSU 19 AZ 17

8. Ole Miss (+4) at LSU Rating +3 MISS 31LSU 13

9. LA Monroe at Florida International (-6.5) Rating +10 LA MON. 31 FIU 27

Added Game: 10. BYU (-7) at Nevada Rating +3



2 Responses to IDEAS ON A NEW SYSTEM:

  1. Phil

    Date: Nov 21, 2008 at 9:04 pm

    I like the idea you outlinesd; I think you should predict the outcomes this week of these games based on your hypothesis.

  2. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Nov 22, 2008 at 5:13 am

    Phil, thanks for the encouragement about the system. The team I like is the team I with the points next to their name. For example: BC (+2) at Wake Forest means I suggest taking BC plus the points. Honestly I think they win outright. If you mean by predict the outcomes, you mean the final scores of the games, I will try:

    Predicted Final Scores

    1. BC 24 WF 21
    2. UNC 27 NC State 17
    3. Vandy 34 Tenn 14
    4. PSU 31 MSU 19
    5. Cal 31 Stanford 24
    6. UAB 27 ECU 20
    7. Arizona 31 OSU 21
    8. LSU 24 Ole Miss 21
    9. FIU 34 UL Monroe 14

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