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SMART BET COLLEGE PICKS WEEK 8: Including Game of the Year Release #1

Posted by in College Football Picks on October 19th, 2009 | 21 Comments

Overall Profit 2.7 units (updated 10/26 at 10:06 pm)

Weekly Loss -1.9 units (updated 10/26 at 10:06 pm)

Just like last week, I have already bet several games early and am releasing them to you so that you can shop around and get the best available line.

1) Air Force at Utah (-11) for 1 unit. Utah should dominate this game from start to finish. Way better balanced attack. AF’s offense can be stopped.

Utah 23 Air Force 16 L for 1.1 units

2) Wake Forest at Navy (-2.5) for 1 unit. Navy continues to improve and will take advantage of weak road team in WF.

Navy 13 Wake Forest 10 W for 1 unit

3) Indiana at Northwestern (-5.5) for 2 units. Northwestern is simply a better squad top to bottom. Indiana is one dimensional and Northwestern should be able to shut them down.

Northwestern 29 Indiana 28 L of 2.2 units

4) Tulsa (-7) at UTEP for 1 unit. I have not bet this game yet myself because I know there are still some 7s out there and the Hilton had the line at -7.5 already.

UTEP 28 TULSA 24 L of 1.1 units

5) Clemson (+6) at Miami for 1 unit.  Clemson can match the speed of Miami and are playing much better than Miami right now. I will take the points.

Clemson 40 Miami 37 W for 1 unit

6) Kent State at Ohio (-10) for 2 unit. Ohio continues to roll. Kent State playing back to back road games in conference, tough spot for them.

Kent State 20 Ohio 11 L for 2.2 units

7) Arizona State (+6) at Stanford for 1 unit. Really like how ASU is playing right now. This would be a solid upset, but they will keep it close throughout.

Stanford 33 Arizona State 14 L for 1.1 units

8) GAME OF THE YEAR RELEASE #1: (I actually hate to use this phrase and you will not see this out of me very often, but the line for this game is completely off and you need to take advantage of this opportunity.) Georgia Tech (-4.5) vs Virginia for 2 units. Virginia does not have the defense to stop the attack of GT. The score should absolutely be 35-7.

Georgia Tech 34 Virginia 9 W for 2 units

9) Clemson/Miami OVER 44 for 1 unit. Either of these two offenses could score this alone. I do like both of these defenses, but this number should be 50.

Clemson/Miami Total 77 W for 1 unit

10) Tulsa/UTEP UNDER 59.5 for 1 unit. As I have repeated, Tulsa’s D is very solid and as a team they have went under the total 4 times. I see this game in the area of Tulsa 37 UTEP 17.

TULSA/UTEP TOTAL 52 W for 1 unit

11) Florida State (+2.5) vs UNC for 1 unit. I have looked at this game for about 3 to 4 hours today alone and have landed firmly on FSU. There are several factors to that analysis including: key line movement, “smart” money, power ratings from 3 different sources, strength of schedule, and the fact that Bowden’s career may be riding on this game. FSU wins 24-10.

FLORIDA STATE 30 UNC 27 W for 1 unit

12) Fresno State (-24) at New Mexico State for 1 unit.

Fresno 34 New Mexico State 3 W for 1 unit

13) Penn State at Michigan (+4.5) for 1 unit.

Penn State 35 Michigan 10 L for 1.1 units

PARLAY LOVERS SPECIAL!!

2 – TEAM PARLAY: Georgia Tech (-5.5) and Ohio (-9.5)  for 1 unit.

GT W Ohio L L for 1.1 units

I will be releasing other games as the week goes on.

Thanks for all the comments.

Good Luck.



21 Responses to SMART BET COLLEGE PICKS WEEK 8: Including Game of the Year Release #1:

  1. Vegas Martin

    Date: Oct 19, 2009 at 11:47 pm

    I love all the picks. Well done.

  2. 711

    Date: Oct 20, 2009 at 5:07 pm

    Hey Brandon, think you made a typo. Arizona St is getting 6 1/2. Just a heads up.

  3. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Oct 20, 2009 at 5:20 pm

    Thanks you are right. I will make the correction.

  4. Rick Red

    Date: Oct 20, 2009 at 5:30 pm

    Bradon,

    Nice card , like the picks so far,,,,,Happy bankroll 2 all

  5. Rick Red

    Date: Oct 20, 2009 at 5:36 pm

    The line is moving a bit -5.5 / -6.5,,,,The money is starting to be laid down….

    Georgia Tech (-4.5) vs Virginia

  6. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Oct 20, 2009 at 5:49 pm

    When Brandon releases a GOY, it moves the line!!! HA HA. I wish!

  7. Rick Red

    Date: Oct 20, 2009 at 5:54 pm

    Its all you,,,,,lol

    Keep up the good job,,,

    Will you give 7.8 / 8 on the tulsa game?

    thanks,

  8. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Oct 20, 2009 at 6:06 pm

    Rick Red. . .

    I had to take the line at -7.5 myself as I could not get out of work before the line changed. UTEP does not have the offense to hang and as I said last week Tulsa’s D is very solid, maybe the best UTEP has seen this year. I would still lay 8, but 9 or 10 is pushing it. However, I still like the score to be something 34-14.

    Good Luck.

  9. Vegas Martin

    Date: Oct 20, 2009 at 6:40 pm

    Georgia Tech just beat Virginia Tech, who is a top 10 team! How is the spread only -4.5? Virginia isn’t any good and GT is at home! This seems too good to be true. Is there any significant injuries to GT that are affecting this spread?

  10. Vegas Martin

    Date: Oct 20, 2009 at 6:42 pm

    I’m going to have to beg to differ on the Miami/Clemson game. I’m with you on all the games except this one. Miami has one hell of a football team. I would not bet against them at home. Miami wins by 10, in my opinion.

  11. 711

    Date: Oct 21, 2009 at 1:53 am

    Vegas, you have to look at the stats. Virginia ove the years has cover the spread for nearly half a decade.

  12. Vegas Martin

    Date: Oct 21, 2009 at 9:38 am

    Well 711, I’m going to have to borrow a quote from Mike Ditka.

    “I don’t believe in living in the past. I think the past is for cowards. If you live in the past, you die in the past.”

  13. Brandon

    Date: Oct 21, 2009 at 10:40 am

    While past stats may be a factor I examine in my analysis of game I rely much more heavily on the “what have you done for me lately” factor. GT is playing great football right now. There is some concern for a let down after their huge win last weekend, but Virginia does not have the offense to compete in this situation. They are clearly outmatched.

    I may be releasing an OVER/UNDER play for tonight’s game a little later this morning.

  14. Jake

    Date: Oct 22, 2009 at 9:55 am

    Hey guys! I hit last night on the under… didn’t know you had put that up brandon till about halftime! We were thinking the same thing.

    I also threw on a 4 teamer for fun… small bet… i took the under last night, gt, northwestern, and ohio.

    keep up the good work!

  15. 711

    Date: Oct 22, 2009 at 11:17 pm

    Oh Im not debating you lol, I believe GT will cover. I was just throwing out why the spread might be opening at -5. Virginia is playing well right now also and that sticky 3-3-4 defense is getting on track. They are also very strong in the month of October and has covered over the years consistently vs GT at home. That is all im saying.

    I like GT -5 though regardless.

  16. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Oct 23, 2009 at 11:12 am

    Please make sure you check back often as I release games throughout the day. Last night I hit with Florida State as an outright dog winner! Even though honestly I thought that game was over at half. FSU has major coaching problems and their defense is one of the worst in all of college football. Keep that defense in mind though against talented offensive teams. FSU should be getting some more respect after last night’s win, but that will allow for smaller spreads when in actuality FSU should be a big dog. I am already looking at their schedule down the road in two weeks at Clemson. That game has a Clemson blowout written all over it!! Mark it down. If the line comes out right we will be all over Clemson!

    I am closely analyzing the Rutgers/Army game and will release any play by 5:00pm Eastern.

    Good Luck.

  17. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Oct 23, 2009 at 4:17 pm

    No play for tonight’s game between Rutgers and Army. I mean if you put a gun to my head and made me pick I would go with Army and take the points. Army struggles to score, but has a solid D so if they can score it will be close. However, if they can’t stuff it in the endzone it is going to a long night for them.

  18. Biggie0056

    Date: Oct 23, 2009 at 8:19 pm

    Hey looking for help on trying to find a lock 2 or 3 teamer… Any Help would be amazing

  19. Huskers#1

    Date: Oct 24, 2009 at 12:21 am

    A little heads up for ya’ll on the Navy game. Starting QB Ricky Dobbs is out.

    Kris Proctor will start this weekend in his first NCAA start. He played the last two quarters in the blowout against Rice where he scored 3 touchdowns and rushed for 85 yards. The only issue is that was rice, a 0-5 team, and this is Wake, a 4-3 BCS stud. I know that they got it handed to them last week by Clemson, but I feel these guys are going to be hungry tomorrow and licking there lips at a new Sophomore QB. I am really unsure about this pick.

  20. Brandon

    Date: Oct 24, 2009 at 2:26 am

    Yes. I agree Huskers. With Dobbs out the team is totally different. I would advise staying away from the game if you haven’t bet it yet or even betting the opposite way. I wouldn’t have made this play w/o Dobbs in the lineup.

  21. Brandon

    Date: Oct 24, 2009 at 9:30 am

    I gave out my 2-team parlay: Georgia Tech and Ohio. If I was to add a third it would be Fresno State.

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