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Vegas Martin’s Week 11 College Football Picks

Posted by in College Football Picks on November 14th, 2009 | Comment »

I don’t like that 6/7 of my picks are road teams, but hell, I like picking proven winners over lousy teams and I think the spreads are pretty favorable.  I usually leave the college games up to Brandon, but I like to post up a few more picks for you to consider on Saturday.  I’ve faired pretty well in college football.  I don’t know my exact record, but I feel that I’m right in the 57-62% area ATS.

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BRANDON’S WEEK 11 PICKS

MY WEEK 10 NFL PICKS

RANKED BY SEMI-STRENGTH:

1.) Kentucky -3 over VANDERBILT — This one looks like an easy winner to me.  Kentucky (5-4) averages 27.1 PPG to Vandy’s (2-8) 16.7 PPG. 10/13 Covers.com experts agree. (W)

2.) Boston College -4 over VIRGINIA — BC has covered their last 5/6. UVA was rolled over by Miami, GT, and Duke in their last 3 games.  I think they get rolled over again and the spread is pretty favorable. (P)

3.) Houston -4 over CENTRAL FLORIDA — Houston has been involved in crazy games lately.  Winning 46-45 and 53-50 in their last two contests.  They’ll just flat-out outscore you.  Take advantage of those close games since the books think they’ll win every week by 1-3 points.  9/11 experts at Covers.com agree with me here. (L)

4.) Clemson -8 over NC STATE — NC State has lost 4 of their last 5 and they can’t stop anyone on defense to save their life.  They’ve given up an average of 41.4 points in their last 5 games.  They’ve been decimated by injuries.  In their defense, they have the offense to hang in games, but Clemson looks to run up the score on them.  With Clemson allowing just 17.3 PPG, I like the odds. (W)

5.) PITTSBURGH -6.5 over Notre Dame — Notre Dame has been a great team to bet against, 2-7 ATS.  Pittsburgh has been a great team to bet on, 6-2 ATS.  Pitt’s 5.1 yards per carry is top notch and ND gives up 148.8 rushing yards per game and 173.3 rushing yards in their last 3 games. (L)

6.) Miami -3 over NORTH CAROLINA — Another favorable spread.  UNC lost to FSU and Virginia, so I think that tells you just how weak their team is.  However, in their defense, they are coming off two impressive wins over Virginia Tech and Duke, but with Miami 5-1 in their last 6 games, I’ll take my chances on ’em. (L)

7.) Georgia Tech -9 over DUKE — GT has won 7 straight going 6-1 ATS in that span.  Don’t underestimate Duke though, they can pass the football and GT has some defensive issues, but I would rather ride the red-hot GT team.  GT has covered 5 straight against Duke. (W)

UPDATE: We started off the day 3-1 in the early games, but ended up 3-3-1. At least it wasn’t a losing week, but we should have ended up 5-2 if a few more things went our way. In the BC/UVA game that pushed for us, BC’s QB threw 2 crucial INTs. One in the endzone on the first drive of the game that essentially took away 3-7 points and another that led to UVA’s sole TD in the game. In the PITT/ND game, Pitt had the 20-3 lead going into the 4th quarter, but they let ND get back in the game, and although they won by 5, they couldn’t cover the 6.5.



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