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Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots Prediction and Pick Against the Spread

Posted by in NFL Picks on October 4th, 2010 | 10 Comments
Patriots vs. Dolphins Pick

Look for Brandon Marshall, Davone Bess, and Brian Hartline to make the Pats secondary look like it's amateur hour.

Yesterday The Kid picked the Giants (-3.5) as a winner and delivered. Somebody woke the sleeping Giants yesterday since the Giants were horrendous in their last two games. Vegas knew this would happen which is why the line clearly showed confidence in the Giants, which I pointed out in, and that’s the reason I stayed away from the Bears despite picking them myself. Being an Eagles fan, I tend to be bias when it comes to the Giants, Redskins, and Cowboys, and that’s something I cannot shake. I figured that if Julius Peppers pressured Eli enough, he would have a horrendous game. Sometimes you need to pick games situationally rather than rely on past performance as yesterday was a “must win” game for the Gmen and they delivered for their fans.


Tonight we have a home dog in the Miami Dolphins and a dubious line at Patriots (-1) begging everyone to take the Patriots. I picked the Dolphins at home on Sunday Night against the Jets last week and I paid for that one. The Monday Night factor is bigger than the Sunday Night factor and the Pats have some holes in their defense that they have to worry about, unlike the Jets, which is why I’m more confident in Miami this week.

This should be a great game. The over/under set at 48 seems interesting and I’m leaning over. I’m expecting both sides to put up a lot of points as this one has “potential shootout” written all over it. You know Tom Brady is going to show up and throw a couple TDs. You know that the Dolphins will be able to score with Ronnie Brown and Brandon Marshall. I think both teams are capable of scoring 24+ and possibly get into the 30’s, so I like the over 48 here. It’s not a lock though since it’s a high number and a 24-20 ending would not leave be dumbfounded.

I like the Dolphins here because the Pats secondary has problems. Patriots CB Darius Butler was benched in favor of second year undrafted free agent Kyle Arrington from Hofstra, who will have to cover Brandon Marshall, Davone Bess, or Brian Hartline. Good luck with that. We saw how the Pats secondary struggled when the Bills put up 30 total points (23 via offensive production; 7 via kickoff return) with Ryan Fitzpatrick as their QB. The Jets also had their way with the Patriots with Mark Sanchez absolutely destroying them.

I think you see the Pats secondary be the Achilles heel of this team again tonight. Pats are ranked 28th against the pass. I’ll stick with the home dog and take the Dolphins at home on Monday Night. I’m also expecting the Pats to keep it tight matching whatever points the Dolphins are able to come up with thanks to Tom Brady. Tom Brady can always win games himself, so you have to be cautious, but I’m going to lean Dolphins here.

Prediction: Dolphins 27 – Patriots 24

Pick Against the Spread: Dolphins +1 (Confidence: 2/5); Over 48 (Confidence: 3/5)

Tonight’s Teaser: Dolphins +8, Over 41 (Confidence: 4/5)

10 Responses to Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots Prediction and Pick Against the Spread:

  1. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Oct 04, 2010 at 3:38 pm

    Monday Night Play:

    New England at Miami (+1) for 1 unit.

    Totally agree with VegasMartin here. Pats secondary will be exploited here tonight, they are giving up about 250yds passing per game and Henne has looked very solid so far this year, even verse the tough Jets D he looked like a confident in control QB. If Miami’s D can step up and make some solid stops then Miami wins this one as a small home dog, 27-24.

  2. Mike

    Date: Oct 04, 2010 at 6:37 pm

    New England is absolutely horrible on the road. I think they won a game or two at the most last year. I am a Miami fan so we definetly need this game and we should be able to take this down.

    I am just nervous to see Allen going against Moss again. He has matured alot since the last time they faced so I am hoping he can at least keep him in check and not let him have his way on the field.

  3. Vegas Martin

    Date: Oct 04, 2010 at 9:17 pm

    Dolphins were looking good until the 2nd half started out with a Pats KO return followed by a blocked punt on the 15 which led to another Pats TD. At least those two quick TDs helped the over 48 come within reach. We’ll see what happens. Bess and Ricky Williams are playing great, but it’s time for B. Marshall to get involved.

  4. Vegas Martin

    Date: Oct 04, 2010 at 10:19 pm

    At least we have a winner on the over, which I gave a higher rating to than the Dolphins pick. Ugly game to watch for Dolphins fans. Patriots D stepped up after getting trashed all week. Just like the Gmen.

  5. mike

    Date: Oct 06, 2010 at 1:52 pm

    Do you guys have any info on the uab central florida game tonight?

    I saw uab last game and they played really well and lost in overttime. It never should have gone that far with the missed field goals from short range. I hate to bet against central florida but I do not see them winning by 12

  6. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Oct 06, 2010 at 3:56 pm

    Mike, UAB vs UCF: UAB has been a disappointment for me all year as I thought they would have some good value throughout the year. My numbers have UCF as a 10pt favorite and therefore I would lean towards UAB, but I just don’t see them playing well enough to keep it close down the stretch.

  7. Mike

    Date: Oct 07, 2010 at 6:17 am

    LOL thanks alot for talking me out of that. I can’t believe UCF kicked their ass that bad, great call :)

  8. The Kid

    Date: Oct 07, 2010 at 10:57 am

    I took UCF and got them at -12. I should have wrote an article on that

  9. MistaFlava

    Date: Oct 07, 2010 at 2:41 pm


    With Love,


  10. dan dagerman

    Date: Oct 15, 2010 at 10:58 am

    urban will be going to the bourbon if gators do not win big. defense and to’s
    should let him keep sipping tea, i hope….

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