Archive for November, 2010

After careful scrutinizing the card for this Saturday I are only a couple  plays that I am throwin my own money at, as I just see a lot of games that could easily go either way, I will indicate those plays with unit values.  Some of the games I do like require some pretty big dogs to make some pretty big steps forward to be competitive enough to hang around and get the cover.

The Plays for Saturday Nov 13th:

Texas A&M at Baylor (+3) for 1 unit.  My Prediction Baylor 30-28.  A&M coming in off a huge win now go on the road as a favorite. Baylor coming off a bad loss heads back home and takes on a very weak pass defense that they should be able to clear advantage of throughout the game. Baylor wins outright.

Penn State vs Ohio State (-18) for 1 unit. My prediction Ohio State 35-14. PSU looked terrible last week, but played inspired ball in the second half to make sure Joe Pa got his 400th win, but if you watched much of that game it was clear Northwestern was better and should have won. OSU is unbeatable at home and still has an outside chance at the BCS Championship game so look for them to come in really focused and win going away.

BYU at Colorado State (+6.5) for 1 unit. My Prediction CSU 24-20. The key to this game for me is that BYU is 0-3 SU on the road this year and there is no way I can lay points with any team who has played that bad on the road. Senior day at CSU as well. CSU is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS at home. Take the points.…

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We hit the trifecta of picks yesterday.  No matter what you took, you were golden. Whether that was the Falcons -1, Over 43.5, or the teaser, you landed in the money. And yes, I picked a game against the “public” and delivered a winner.

DETROIT LIONS @ BUFFALO BILLS (-2.5)

I’m all over the Lions in this one. The Bills are still winless.  If the spread is Bills -2.5, it would mean the spread would practically be a pick ’em game if it was in Detroit (home field is worth roughly 3 points). Terrible luck for the Lions though. After blowing a 10-point lead to the Jets at home, they may now lose Matthew Stafford for the rest of the year. Even with Shaun Hill, I think he can beat the 0-8 Bills, who give up 29 PPG (24 PPG in their last 3). Looks like the books think the Bills are due for their first win this season. Maybe they are, but I doubt it. Bills rank 32nd against the run, giving up 178 yards per game and that Jahvid Best kid is pretty good.

Prediction: Lions 24 – Bills 17

Pick Against the Spread: Lions +2.5 (Confidence: 3/5)

NEW YORK JETS (-3) @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

After the Browns have pulled two big upsets, I’m not going to touch this game. Colt McCoy is an absolutely stud, beating both Drew Brees and Tom Brady in his first two NFL games. I’m sure he’s thinking, “bring on the Colts.” However, this will be his toughest defensive test this season. Revis has to be due to pick off the …

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ ATLANTA FALCONS (-1)

Thursday Night Football starts tonight and we are treated to a great game between the Ravens and Falcons. Both teams are 6-2, both teams are 4-0 at home and 2-2 on the road, and both have been mediocre against the spread covering 4 of their 8 games this season. The Falcons have the offensive edge, while the Ravens have the defensive edge.

This is a tough game to call. The Falcons average 30 PPG at home while the Ravens average just 14 PPG on the road. However, the Falcons defense has been slipping up the last few weeks due to injuries. The Falcons are averaging 28 PPG allowed in their last 3 while their season average is just 19 PPG. Baltimore is finally showing some offensive production, averaging 27 PPG in their last 3, which matches the Falcons average.

The public is favoring the Ravens, who are getting 63% of the action against the spread. I just can’t make up my mind about this pick. I am torn 50/50. I love Atlanta’s offense and the fact that they’re at home, but I also think that the Ravens are a better all-around team. The Ravens haven’t really shown me much on the road though, so I’m not ready to jump on them this game.

With the over/under at 43.5, I would favor the over. The Falcons score a lot, especially at home. The Ravens will likely also score their fair share of points against the Falcons struggling defense.  The over 36.5 looks like an extremely safe play if you want to add the points to the Falcons (+6) or Ravens (+8).

Prediction: Falcons 27 – Ravens 24

Picks Against the Spread: Falcons -1 (Confidence: 2/5), …

Question: Week 12: Start Steven Jackson or Maurice Jones Drew?

Maurice Jones-Drew has some kind of injury, but will probably play this Sunday against the Giants. Does anyone know how serious this injury is and how it will affect his performance? I have Steven Jackson on my bench and Jackson is starting against Denver. I’m tempted to sit MJD and start Jackson instead.  Just wanted to get your thoughts.

Answer:

Maurice Jones-Drew will start on Sunday, but he won’t be 100%. Since that’s the case, you can’t go wrong with Steven Jackson against Denver. Who is your other running back. I’m surprised that you have MJD and have Steven Jackson on your bench to begin with.

Give your answer to this question below!…

We enjoyed an easy victory with the Packers last night to add on top of other Sunday winners (Saints and Texans/Over teaser). Tonight we have an AFC North battle, which is much tougher to gauge than last night’s Sunday Night game between Green Bay and Dallas.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-5.5) @ CINCINNATI BENGALS

I’m not all over the Steelers like I was with the Packers yesterday. Packers was an easy pick since they were at home and the Cowboys have been terrible. Pittsburgh has to battle this one out with a division rival and that’s going to be tough. The Bengals have been terrible against the spread (2-5) while the Steelers have been decent (4-3). However, some trends are keeping me from going big on the Steelers here: Pittsburgh 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 division games and 2-6 ATS against a team with a losing record. They just underperform as heavy favorites. They win consistently, but in close games.

Count on Pittsburg’s run D to dominate as they’ve been holding their opponents to under 60 yards per game and limiting teams to a 2.6 yards per carry average. Will Cincy’s passing attack be able to move the chains on Pittsburgh? Pitt’s passing D gives up 243 passing yards, while the Bengals passing offense is averaging 254 passing yards. They’ll get some offensive production, but they should be limited.

With a look at the over/under, the line is set at 41. With these offenses averaging 20 PPG and the Steelers D holding their opponents to 14 PPG that favors the under here. The Steelers/Saints game was 20-10 and the Steelers/Dolphins game was 23-22. A more comparable game would be the Ravens/Steelers which ended 17-14.

I think you see a close, low-scoring …

Strong day here as I hit 2 out of 3 on my card.  I played the Saints -6.5, Patriots -4, and Texans +10/Over 42.5. The Saints were my top play and since everyone loved the Pats, I took that one too. Like I mentioned in the write up, you know the traps (home dog off the bye week) and I got trapped into that one. I’m still coming out on top and looking for a final hit in the night game.

DALLAS COWBOYS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS (-7)

The 1-6 Cowboys (I love saying that) are playing the Packers (5-3) in Green Bay tonight. The Cowboys got waxed by the Jaguars last week at home 35-17. They have a lot of issues in their secondary as Garrard passed for 260 yards and 4 TDs with a rushing touchdown to boot. Sims-Walker had 10 receptions for 153 yards. Kitna was forced to drop back 49 times and despite putting up over 350 yards, he threw 4 INTs (two due to balls that bounced off the wide receiver’s hands). It’s safe to say the Cowboys morale is at an all time low.

The Packers are coming back home with a lot of momentum after topping the Jets 9-0 thanks to a stout defensive effort. Despite all the injuries to their defense, they were able to get it done. I clearly like the Packers here. At home on Sunday Night against a team that is struggling on defense giving up 26.7 PPG. What’s not to love? Clay Matthews should harass Jon Kitna all game long and force him into bad decisions. Packers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 against a team with a losing record and 5-2-1 in their last 8 home …

Question by The Guy With A Plan: Who to start/sit in Week 9 Fantasy Football?

ESPN Standard League, 14 teams, 1 QB – 2 RB – 1 RB/WR – 2 WR – 1 TE – 1 D/ST – 1 K

Position – Name, Team (Projection)

QB – Aaron Rodgers, GB (23)

RB – Ryan Grant, GB (18)
RB – Pierre Thomas, NO (14)
RB – Jamaal Charles, KC (8)

WR – Greg Jennings, GB (21)
WR – Randy Moss, NO (17)
WR – Andre Johnson, Hou (15)
WR – Michael Crabtree, SF (13)
WR – Marques Colston, NO (12)
WR – Mario Manningham, NYG (3) [Questionable]
WR – Bernard Berrian, Min [BYE]

TE – Kellen Winslow, TB (9)
TE – Visanthe Shiancoe [BYE]

D/ST – Bears, Chi (5)
D/ST – Bengals, Cin (3)

K – Matt Stover, Ind
K – Ryan Longwell, Min [BYE]

Please keep in mind that I am in a 14 team league so what might seem like a weak team (specifically at RB) really isn’t that shallow. Also I need a kicker for this week cause Longwell is on a bye week so I don’t know if I should drop someone else or just go this week without a kicker. I put stover up there because he’s who ill probably get. My current record is 3 wins and 5 losses (3-5).

Please rate my team (for a 14 team league), give me some advice, or tell me who I should start/sit for Week 8? Thanks!

Best answer:

Obviously go with Rodgers at QB. I wouldn’t play Jamaal Charles, since he hasn’t shown me anything yet this season.
Start Pierre Thomas, try to pick up a RB, personally i dont ike starting a QB RB tandem. but …