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SMART BET NCAAF Picks for Saturday, September 8

Posted by in College Football Picks on September 8th, 2012 | 4 Comments

Ball State at CLEMSON (-27.5): I know this is a huge number and generally I stay away from big favorites, but the talent in this game is so lopsided I can’t help myself. I am not just talking about their rankings either. Clemson is bigger, much faster, and more talented on the offensive and defensive side of the ball. I don’t believe Clemson should have much of a hangover from beating Auburn, but it is possible. Clemson should have their sights set pretty high this year and it won’t bode them well to stumble here. I believe Clemson dominates start to finish and Ball State will be luck to score more than 10 points. I won’t lay these many points often, but I will here. 1 unit on Clemson.

Duke vs. Stanford OVER 55.5: We all know Stanford is not going to be as good as they were last year, but how much of a dropoff will they really have. In my opinion, significant, but that shouldn’t matter here against Duke. Stanford’s offense was terrible last week against a below average defense in San Jose State. Duke’s defensive, also below average simply cannot stop the run. FIU racked-up 165 rushing yards last week and scored 26 points. I look for Stanford to pound the run early to setup some easy screen passes and the occasional deep play-action score. Duke played the same starting schedule last year, FIU then Stanford, which resulted in a win and a loss; small revenge spot here for Duke. Duke’s offense should score some points here, I believe at least in the low 20s. Stanford’s offense will show some life here against another weak defense. Score Prediction 48-21. 1 unit on the over 55.5.

I won’t be posting many picks this week as it is still pretty early in the season to make any big plays. More picks to come Saturday morning.

4 Responses to SMART BET NCAAF Picks for Saturday, September 8:

  1. Vegas Martin

    Date: Sep 08, 2012 at 9:18 am

    I like the Clemson pick. When I saw RB Andre Ellington last week, I was in awe. He is going to do a lot of damage against Ball State. This looks like a high spread worth taking.

  2. Vegas Martin

    Date: Sep 08, 2012 at 9:43 am

    Some other games I was looking into:

    OHIO STATE (-17) over Central Florida
    Oklahoma State (-11) over ARIZONA
    ALABAMA (-38) over Western Kentucky

    What do you think?

  3. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Sep 08, 2012 at 11:34 am

    Sorry this is late. I would lean UCF as their defense is pretty strong and they will look to run the ball and control the clock, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see a late cover by a Meyer team that won’t shut the offense down regardless of the score.

    OKST is better than Arizona, but laying -11 on the road against a solid team is always tough. I think this a good line, but if I had to pick, based on talent alone I would lay the 11 with OKST.

    Alabama was more than impressive in their win over of Michigan, specifically their defense. Alabama can name the score before the game starts, if they want to win by 40 they will, 50 they will, if they want to shut it down early then you could see a 35 point win. Arkansas is on deck for Alabama, so it is a look-ahead spot for Bama. Again, tough call, but I would take the -38 and hope for a back door cover, which rarely is a good betting angle!

    Good Luck.

  4. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Sep 10, 2012 at 11:52 am

    THE ONE THAT GOT AWAY! I was kicking myself this morning when I realized there was a game on Saturday that I meant take a closer look at, but simply forgot. One trend that I have found to be very successful in college football over the years is betting against a favorite coming off a disappointing loss. I first saw this trend back in 2007, I believe, when Michigan State lost an absolute heartbreaker to Notre Dame. The following week Michigan State came back as a 24-point (or something close to that) home favorite verse lowly Illinois. Illinois won outright. Last week Vanderbilt opened up the college football season at home with a gutsy tough loss to South Carolina. This week they went on the road to Northwestern, who had barely squeaked out a victory over Syracuse, and were a 3-point favorite. When I checked the college scoreboard this morning after remembering that I forgot to look at this game I saw the score NW 23 Vandy 13.

    Looking forward there are a couple games that possibly fit this trend: (1) Purude, played a great game against Notre Dame and had many chances to win outright, but lost in the closing seconds. They are laying 23 at home verse Eastern Michigan. (2) Penn State laying 6 verse Navy. Kicker missed four fgs and an extra point and they lost 17-16. I will post others after I look back at the games more closely.

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