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WEEK 1 – THE FINAL WORD

Posted by in NFL Picks on September 6th, 2012 | 227 Comments

I’m about to take off gentlemen. I’m headed to New York City for a bachelor party. Before departing, I wanted to provide everyone with the final word for this weekend.

Brandon Phillips’ SMART BET is Back!

It’s good to have my boy Brandon Phillips back. Brandon was THE PASS RUSH’S college football guy in 2009 and 2010 until taking a break in 2011. We’re glad to have him back on board. Our readers were calling for his bowl special last year after going 9-3 ATS in the 2010 bowl season.

Just to give you a little story of how Brandon and I crossed paths. We were both 3rd-year law students. I see this guy in class (good old Taxation of Business Entities) with a sheet of every football spread for the week and he’s going through it and circling home underdogs and what type of field the team is on. If the visiting team plays on a different type of field, he’ll do some extended due diligence on the matchup and will look to stick with the home dog and the points. We then struck up a conversation about football betting and I invited him to begin contributing to the site.

I’m sure Brandon will be posting some Saturday college football picks for you. His opening pick of 2012 was a success, going with Cincinnati (-5) over Pittsburgh on Thursday night. The Bearcats rolled 34-10. Hopefully, there will be plenty more where that came from.

Sunday’s Final Word

I wish I could have had the same success as Brandon with my opening pick, but the Giants suffered from the Super Bowl hangover. Just a note on my confidence ratings, I grade my picks on a scale of 10. I never ever touch a game ranked 6 or below. A game ranked a 7/10 may get a small play. A game with an 8/10 will get a sizeable play. A game with a 9/10 will get a huge play and I won’t ever give anything a 10/10.

What I wanted to focus on is my big play for Sunday and that’s a teaser of Houston -3 & Under 50. Readers of the site know I’m notorious for nailing teasers. This play, in my opinion, warrants a 9/10 confidence rating.

And here’s my final word on this play… And, by the way, if you want to call me out on a game, do it before kickoff by adding your two cents in the comments. It’s easy to call me out on a pick after the fact when hindsight is 20/20. If you beg to differ on this game, let’s hear it now.

Houston vs. Miami Final Word

I’m going with the teaser of Texans -3 and under 50 in this game. The public is riding the Texans and moved the spread to -10 to -12. I love the Texans, even with the high spread, but I saw the high over/under as an opportunity to tease the spread down and pair it with the under 50. We know the Texans have one of the best defenses from 2011 and are facing one of the worst offenses in the league that lost their biggest offensive weapon (Brandon Marshall) and are relying on a rookie quarterback who has failed to impress anyone this preseason.

All the Texans have to do is contain Reggie Bush and force Tannehill to throw check downs all game. I’m expecting 5-10 yard dink and dunks from the Miami offense, thus eating up clock. We also know the Texans are going to run the football with Arian Foster and eat the clock on their side while the coaching staff has faith in their defense to limit Miami’s offense.

Miami’s run defense ranked 3rd last year behind San Francisco and Baltimore. One reason why I want to tease the spread down is because Miami’s defense has a chance to keep this one tight. This game should be an defensive tussle, and one that I see the Texans winning 24-10. With the spread at -12, it’s too close to call with the high spread, but it leaves a comfortable cover with my teaser. The Texans faced Miami last year and defeated them 23-13 in Miami. Expect a similar outcome.

The Rest of Sunday

My next play is a much smaller play in the Panthers (-2.5) over the Bucs which I ranked a 7/10. A lot of people are all over this game after recalling the Panthers demolition of the Bucs last season, but I’m saying you should be more hesitant before betting the farm on this one. The Bucs made a lot of offseason moves to improve their team and will be a much more competitive team this year. The Panthers also have a very suspect defense, but the return of Beason and addition of Kuechly to their defense will help them out. I’m sticking with the Panthers, but expect a tighter battle from the Bucs.

A final play is a 4-team teaser with a nice 2:1 payout: Eagles -2, Lions -2, Bears -2.5, and Texans -3.5.

Good luck gentlemen. Remember to sign up for the pick ’em league for a chance to win a custom NFL shop t-shirt.



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