Archive for September, 2009

Current Profit/Loss -2.4 Units:

Georgia Tech vs Miami UNDER 54.5:

This number appears pretty high for two teams that run the ball more often then they go through the air. GT has switched to the option offense and their QB has looked very poor so far this year throwing the ball. Miami’s D will likely put 8 to 9 in the box to help shut down the run and force GT’s QB to beat them through the air. Miami is also at their best on the ground, if last week verse Florida State was indicator of things left to come this year. I also think with this being an important tough conference game the defenses will both be on lock down tonight. Look for this score to be much lower than either of these teams previous contests. I see the score being more like 30-14, Miami. Even though I like Miami, I am not playing them because of that very tough, physical battle they had with Florida State last out, there still may be some lingering effect.

The Play UNDER 54.5   1 unit

Good Luck.…

Last week was a solid week.  I only gave out 2 games with a 4/5 confidence rating last week, which were the Minnesota Vikings and the Atlanta Falcons and they both covered pretty comfortably.  There were some surprises last week.  The Jets looks legit.  The Raiders didn’t suck as bad as we thought they would.  All of the games were extremely close with the spread, which is exactly what it was designed for.  There aren’t too many easy winners.  I was feeling it with the Vikings though and that set me up for a nice week.  Lets see what is on tap this week.

OAKLAND RAIDERS +3 @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Oh, so the Raiders don’t suck so bad after all.  They had a decent defense in decent offense.  They may even rank 16th in both categories this season.  The Chiefs put up 24 points on the Ravens, what?  7 of those came via a blocked punt in the end zone, so that really doesn’t count.  I think this game should be low scoring and back and forth with a few lead changes.  Odds are it comes down to a field goal, so I think you’re better suited taking the Raiders with the +3.  Under 38.5 looks interesting, but stands to be close to that number.

Prediction: Raiders 20 – Chiefs 17

Free Picks: Raiders +3 (Confidence: 2/5), Under 38.5 (Confidence: 2/5)

HOUSTON TEXANS @ TENNESSEE TITANS -6.5

Kerry Collins was pretty impressive last week against the Steelers on the road and the Titans ran the ball very well against a top 3 run defense.  Texans got pounded by the Jets ground game and passing game too.  Plus, the Titans have an extra 3 days rest — a huge advantage …

Question: Which WR do I go wit in week 2?

Percy Harvin vs. DET
Santana Moss vs. STL

Santana Moss was a dud last week with only 2 catches for 6 yards. What a disappointment. Is it time to put Percy Harvin in the lineup for Santana Moss?

Answer:

It’s time to go with Percy Harvin in the starting lineup. I’m expecting Santana Moss to slow down a bit since he’s getting up there in years. Inject some youth into your lineup. Brett Favre and Percy Harvin will put up some big numbers together once they develop some chemistry. As a bonus, Harvin can always take it to the house on punt and kickoff returns for bonus TDs.

Add your own answer in the comments!…

2/2 on Sunday Night has us rolling into Monday well positioned.  There are two games to choose.  Bills +11 @ Patriots and Chargers @ Raiders +10.  I hate double-digit spreads — they’ll always be close.  Both the Saints and Ravens covered their -13 spreads, but the Chiefs and Lions were the team in the money most of the game and both had a very good chance of covering the spreads if it wasn’t for a late TD score to give those who took the Saints and Ravens a sigh of relief.

My first thought was that I would rather give up the points with the Patriots at home rather than the Chargers on the road.  Home field advantage is huge on Monday night and betting against the Raiders when they’re given 10 points on Monday night in the black hole could be a mistake, although I do feel that the Chargers should dominate this game.  However, the Bills defense isn’t weak, and with CB issues for the Patriots, they may have a tough time with Evans and T.O.  I’m not huge on the Patriots -11.  I think the Patriots win by exactly 11 to be honest (27-16).  After rethinking this one, I think the Chargers have a better shot at covering 10 against the Raiders than the Patriots do against the Bills.

I then want to turn my attention to the over/under since yesterday’s call on the under 46.5 was spot on.  The over/under for NE/BUF is 47.5 and and SD/OAK is 43.

In the Patriots game, I’m forecasting 24-31 points from the Patriots with a max of 34 points being scored.  The Bills should score 13-16 with a max of 20.  The Patriots will come out firing passes all …

The line on the Bears/Packers game has moved to Bears +5.  I don’t love either team with the spread in this one.  The Packers could either run it up if Rodgers comes out with his A game, but the Bears also have one of the best defenses in the league and could cause Rodgers to struggle and force some punts.

On the other hand, I’m not expecting much from the Bears on the road.  Maybe 17-20 points max and possibly 13-16 points.  I put the Packers at about 20-24 points, maybe 27 max.  Odds are this game is something in the ballpark of Packers 24-17.  Maybe Packers 20-17.  I think it’s going to be a tight game due to two solid defenses.  I see a slow start from teams that will feel each other out.  Odds are this game starts slow, the only question is if Cutler and Rodgers end hot.

I still think the defenses dominate this game, so the spread on this game is a toss up.  I really like the under 46.5 and I also think the Packers win by about a TD.  I see around 40 points being scored in this game.  I would be surprised if this ends in 47 points.  A 27-20 game seems a little out of reach.  As things stand right now, under 46.5 is my play on this game tonight.

Prediction: Packers 24 – Bears 17

Free Pick: Under 46.5 (Confidence: 3/5), Packers -5 (Confidence: 2/5)…

We had 3/3 winning tickets in the 1:00 game.  My big game this week was the Vikings. I was nervous with everyone chanting “trap game,” but I knew the Vikings running game would dominate that game.  The Falcons were my other play and they won 19-7.  Lastly, I put a little something on my Eagles.  They say don’t put money on your own team, but I’m confident in the Eagles this season — they have a ton of offensive weapons and a great defense, which showed with DeSean Jackson’s punt return, Sheldon Brown had a huge INT, and Trent Cole forced a fumble which Abiamiri put in the endzone.  Each game was a pretty comfortable cover.

There are three 4:00 games and I’m really feeling the Cardinals.  They have a potent offense at home, an underrated defense, and should be jacked up starting the season with Super Bowl hopes at home.  They’re up against a 49ers team that is trying to find their identity.  The only real star on that 49ers team is Frank Gore.  The 49ers receiving skills are minimal and their defense is just middle of the pack.  I expect Arizona to come out firing with Fitzgerald and Boldin and they will get this game going on the right track.  I like that the line dropped from -6.5 to -5.5.  I don’t know what that is all about, but I’m going to jump on it.  I like this game, but don’t love it since a lot of people are taking the 49ers to cover, but I’m going with my gut on this one.  How can you bet against the Cardinals at home with that type of offense?

Good luck at 4:00.…

What’s up everyone.  We kick off the first Sunday of the NFL this season.  I tend to advise people to not wager too much on the first 3 weeks of football since you never know what’s going to happen.  There will definitely be a few surprises.

It was already crazy week in college football.  I capitalized on Brandon’s picks of Wake Forest and Auburn, but took what I would consider a bad beat on the Michigan game, and ended up short with USC.  ND should have not only won that game, but should have covered, and did cover with 2 minutes left.  Bad penalties, giving up a kickoff return, and a missed FG cost them that one.  In the OSU game, the OSU front 7 stepped up for them and shut down USC’s run.  OSU’s front 7 was their Achilles heel in the Navy game.  USC didn’t really use Joe McKnight until the 2nd half either.  USC also was struggling with starting field position the entire game since they had to start several drives within their own 10 yard line.  That forced them into a lot of punting situations.  If they got to start more drives between the 20-40, I have a feeling they would have put a lot more points on the board.

Today in the NFL, there aren’t really any games that I love.  I do like the Minnesota Vikings over the Browns, but this has trap game written all over it.  It’s like the sports books are begging you to take the Vikings and that’s who the public is riding hard.  A lot of people think the Browns will be returning to their 2007 form when they were 10-6.  I am not one of those people.  They …