Archive for October, 2009

START ‘EM IN WEEK 6:

1.) Rashard Mendenhall — Time to keep on riding Mendenhall.  After great games against the Steelers in Chargers, he now has the Browns.  He has 3 TDs in the last two games and an average of 137 combined yards in those contests.  What a great late-round pickup since you could count on Willie Parker getting injured at some point in the season.

2.) Brian Westbrook/LeSean McCoy — Westbrook got you a TD last week against the Bucs, but neither back put up big yards since the Eagles aired it out against the Bucs.  Andy Reid was a little upset with the lack of the ability to run.  He should be able to get the running game going against the Raiders 31st ranked run D.  You obviously want to start Westbrook, but I also think there’s enough room to get McCoy some quality fantasy points if you have a flex spot on your team.

3.) Cadillac Williams — Williams is either hit or miss.  He can either give you 100 yards or 10 yards.  He’s not a “must start” but he is if you don’t have a good RB option this week.  The Panthers give up over 150 rushing yards per game.  The Bucs should turn to the running game this week against the Panthers since Josh Johnson is still developing as a QB.

4.) DeAngelo Williams — He should rebound after a poor outing against the Redskins when he was held to just 41 yards on 20 carries.  The Bucs run D has been spotty this year.

5.) Thomas Jones/Leon Washington — Both players get the nod against the Bills, who give up over 150 yards per game on the ground.

6.) Cedric Benson — …

I hate to admit it or even watch it, but the NFL Week 6 play of the week has to go to Miles Austin, hands down. Not only did he give the Cowboys the lead when the game was tied at 13, but he also gave the Cowboys the win in overtime with another TD. Miles Austin ended the day with 10 receptions, 250 yards, and 2 TDs.

First TD:

Second TD:

…

Overall Profit 6.2 units (updated as of 10/14 11:18 pm)

Weekly Running Profit: 2 unit (updated as of 10/14 11:18 pm)

We are coming off one of our greatest weeks ever. However, those bets don’t count this week and we need to keep rolling and finding solid plays. I have already jumped on four games as I saw some key statistical advantages and some key line moves that gave indication for strong plays.

1. Boise State vs Tulsa (+8.5) for 1 unit This game is Wednesday Night! Remember to look for the best available line.

Boise State 28 Tulsa 21 (W) 1 unit of profit.

2. Kent State (-6.5) at Eastern Michigan for 1 unit (W)

3. Miami OH at Ohio (-13.5)for 1 unit (W)

4. Texas Tech at Nebraska (-10) for 1 unit (L)

5. Arkansas State at UL-Monore (-1) for 1 unit  This game is on Tuesday Night.

UL Monroe 16 Arkansas State 10, (W) 1 unit of profit

6. Bowling Green at Ball State (+3) for 2 units (Ball State gets their first win of the season!) (L)

7. Baylor (+2.5) at Iowa State for 2 units (Baylor wins outright! Iowa State will still be affected by last weeks close upset loss to Kansas, you will definitely see a non-focused team. ISU gets beat by 2 touchdowns.) (L)

8. Virginia at Maryland (+3) for 1 unit: Maryland has been close in several games this year and I think they come through with a home win over Virginia. (L)

9. Georgia (-9.5) at Vanderbilt for 1 unit. Vandy is simply not good enough to stop Georgia’s offense. Plus Georgia’s D will put plenty of pressure on the QB and cause several TOs. (W)

10. Akron (+7.5) vs …

After kicking ass and taking names on Saturday in college football, THE PASS RUSH took those winnings and went up even more on Sunday.  THE PASS RUSH played the Vikings -10, Giants -14.5, and Eagles -15 and they were all winners.  The pick of the week was the Vikings and I simply could not understand the low spread on a team that does not score.  If the books are giving out free money, I am going to take it.

The Vikings were the ONLY pick this year that I gave a rare 5/5 rating. A 5/5 rating is achieved on only 1-2% of my picks.  I was also very high on the Giants, which you could read in my articles for the NFL Week 5 football action.  I typically recommend sticking to the top 1 or 2 NFL spreads each week, but I also laid down some money on my Philadelphia Eagles since I attended the game and knew they would kick another NFL retard’s ass.  Great, great game.

Now there were some losers in my top 5.  I’m not going to pretend that there weren’t.  The Steelers were unable to cover by 2.5 points.  The Panthers failed to cover by a half point, but you might have been able to get that game at -3 to push.  I also misunderestimated (I believe that term was coined by either George Bush or Barack Obama, or was it Roger Clemons?) the Denver Broncos.  We can now finally say that the Broncos are legit.  I picked the Patriots to cover the 3 points since I couldn’t see the Broncos moving to 5-0 against the Patriots, but they did in overtime.

Lastly, my Colts -3 pick over the Titans also hit.  I had …

It was a tremendous Saturday for THE PASS RUSH. Vegas’s and Brandon’s college football picks went a combined 11-4 (73.33%).  That’s more than 2 out of 3.  As Meatloaf would say, 2 outa 3 ain’t bad. Anytime you’re picking 2 out of 3 winners, you’re doing damn good. In fact, if you’re hitting 55-60% of your picks, you’re doing your job.  We also started off the day going 8-1 with our first 9 picks in the early games on Saturday.  It’s always good to get those early winners.

Brandon’s posted picks went 6-3. Including his last minute picks of Maryland and Utah, he scored an 8-3 record.  That’s why you guys gotta read the comments.  That’s where you’ll get last-minute updates on spreads and the hot games to take right before kickoff.  Also be sure to leave some of your own thoughts on the games.

Brandon proved all the haters wrong on his Kentucky +9 call on the road against South Carolina. What makes this week all the better is that Brandon’s “call of the week” (Oregon St.) — a.k.a. his 2-unit bet (on his 1-2 unit scale for you rookies) — was a big winner.

Vegas Martin’s picks went 3-1. He picked 4 college games. The 3 games he was most confident in all hit. The sole game that he lost he even gave a mere 1/5 confidence rating and picked it purely on hunch due to his theory that FSU would win this game for Coach Bowden. FSU was close, but no cigar, losing by a score of 49-44.

I’m not counting the LSU game since I specifically advised you fools to avoid betting on this game and not take the points if Timmy Tebow …

FLORIDA GATORS (4-0) -9 @ LSU TIGERS (5-0)

First order of business is checking the status of Tim Tebow.  As your probably already know, Tebow suffered a concussion last week and is questionable for the game meaning that there’s about a 50/50 shot that he plays.  The latest word on Tebow is that he will play IF he is medically cleared by passing a test and this will be a game-time decision.  I would not wager of this game until Tebow’s status is 100% certain.  If he plays, I would lean towards taking the Gators at -9, but if he’s out, taking LSU +9 is likely the play to make.  Let’s look at the tale of the tape.

Both teams are unbeaten this season.  Florida is averaging 45.5 PPG and allowing 7.2 PPG.  LSU is averaging 27.0 PPG and allowing 14.8 PPG.  Florida won the last contest between these two teams last November by a score of 51-20.  Florida’s most impressive wins this season are their week 1 win over Oklahoma 24-14 and their win last week on the road over Kentucky, 41-7.  LSU has only played 1 legitimate team and 4 weaker teams and their sole “impressive” win was a 20-13 win on the road against Georgia.  The week before that, LSU barely beat Mississipp State on the road, escaping with a 30-26 win.

Not only does Florida have Tebow questionable, but their injury list is almost a mile long (see full list here).  With several offensive linemen, linebackers, and wide receivers out for Florida, that raises a lot of questions on whether they can cover the 9 points on the road.

Florida is an impressive 11-1 against-the-spread (ATS) in their last 12 road games, while LSU …

College football is not my forte, I usually leave that up to Brandon, but I’m going to post up some picks and see what happens. I’m feeling lucky!

1.) West Virginia -10.5 over SYRACUSE (W) — Syracuse is traditionally the Raiders of college football the last few years, but they’re a tad more competitive this year with that Duke kid playing QB. 15/18 experts at Covers.com like this pick and so do I.  At only 10.5 points, I think it’s a steal since the Orange are so bad, but some places have the line at -9.5/-10 so see if you can find that one.

2.) Oklahome State -4.5 over TEXAS A&M (W) — T A&M has some defensive issues, so I think Oklahoma St. is poised to put up a lot of points with their 39 PPG average.  The bad news is that their stud WR Dez Bryant is out with a suspension.  After a tough loss to Houston, OSU boosted their confidence with shellackings over Rice and Grambling where they reached almost 100 points in those 2 contests.  This is a tough spot for them on the road, but they have the edge on offense and defense.  Texas A&M hasn’t beaten anyone special this season, but got CRUSHED by Arkansas last week by the score of 47-19 (at home to boot). 8/11 experts agree with my Oklahoma St. over Texas A&M pick.

3.) Alabama -4.5 over MISSISSIPPI (W) — After Ole’ Miss’s loss to South Carolina, I lost all faith in them.  Look for Alabama to prove to the country why they’re a top 3 team in the country.  Tough spot on the road, but they’re clearly the stronger team here.  Alabama has DOMINATED both Kentucky and Arakansas.  Miss’s …