Archive for November, 2009

I don’t like that 6/7 of my picks are road teams, but hell, I like picking proven winners over lousy teams and I think the spreads are pretty favorable.  I usually leave the college games up to Brandon, but I like to post up a few more picks for you to consider on Saturday.  I’ve faired pretty well in college football.  I don’t know my exact record, but I feel that I’m right in the 57-62% area ATS.

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BRANDON’S WEEK 11 PICKS

MY WEEK 10 NFL PICKS

RANKED BY SEMI-STRENGTH:

1.) Kentucky -3 over VANDERBILT — This one looks like an easy winner to me.  Kentucky (5-4) averages 27.1 PPG to Vandy’s (2-8) 16.7 PPG. 10/13 Covers.com experts agree. (W)

2.) Boston College -4 over VIRGINIA — BC has covered their last 5/6. UVA was rolled over by Miami, GT, and Duke in their last 3 games.  I think they get rolled over again and the spread is pretty favorable. (P)

3.) Houston -4 over CENTRAL FLORIDA — Houston has been involved in crazy games lately.  Winning 46-45 and 53-50 in their last two contests.  They’ll just flat-out outscore you.  Take advantage of those close games since the books think they’ll win every week by 1-3 points.  9/11 experts at Covers.com agree with me here. (L)

4.) Clemson -8 over NC STATE — NC State has lost 4 of their last 5 and they can’t stop anyone on defense to save their life.  They’ve given up an average of …

Business is picking up.  Brandon is posting college basketball picks over at THE TRIPLE DOUBLE and he is red hot right now, starting the season 9-0.  NINE AND O BABY! The man told you that he is a college basketball prodigy, even more than a college football guru.  Do not question the method to his madness. If he tells you to take St. Bonaventure or Wofford, you take St. bonaventure and Wofford. Do not ask questions for you know nothing! Put another way, he is the Gordon Gekko of college basketball and you are the guy that lights his cigarette and pours his scotch.

For his Friday night picks, he went with St. Bonaventure as his 2 unit bet over Cleveland State in a pick ’em game. You see Cleveland State and you think green uniforms and a team that did well in the NCAA tournament a year or two ago and you think you’ve found a winner. Then you see Cleveland State down by 20 at the half and curse at the basketball gods. He also took Wofford, who is returning 5 starters and getting 17.5 points against Pittsburgh, who lost almost every starter from last year’s squad, and what do you get? You get Wofford not only covering by double digits, but you’re up by 3 points with 3 minutes left to play as a 17.5 point underdog.

This is the type of information that you get at our the sister site of THE PASS RUSH, THE TRIPLE DOUBLE. Again, quick links to our network of sports-betting websites are at the top and sides of the site. Money simply cannot buy this type of service, for we do not make you pay for such services. Instead, …

Before we get into this game, remember to sign up for THE PASS RUSH’s pick ’em league.  Here are quick links to my NFL picks and Brandon’s NCAA picks.

#25 WEST VIRGINA (7-2) @ #5 CINCINNATI (9-0) -9.5

We have a tremendous college football game for Friday night.  The Mountaineers will travel to Cincinnati to face the undefeated Bearcats.  Let’s try to break down this matchup and see which team is a good pick against the spread.  Cincinnati has been better against the spread this year than West Virginia: Cincinnati is 6-3 ATS and West Virginia is 2-6 ATS.

Cincinatti is averaging 40 PPG and allowing 16.4 PPG.  West Virginia is averaging 28.3 PPG and allowing 20.9 PPG.  When these teams met last year, Cincinnati won 26-23.  Cincinnati has a much better team this year though.  Cincinatti has a clear advantage with their passing game.  Cincy is averaging 355 yards per game, 100 more yards per game than West Virginia’s passing average.  West Virginia’s edge is their rushing defense.  WVU gives up 120 rushing yards per game (3.4 YPR) compared to Cincy’s 172 yard average (4.2 YPR), but that doesn’t matter that much since Cincinnati is a pass first, run second team.

Tony Pike might get some action this game, but it will be backup Zach Callaros that will be getting the start for Cincinnatti once again.  No worry about Pike sitting out,  Callaros is playing just as well, maybe even better than Pike was.  Callaros is averaging 12.3 yards per passing attempt and has 10 TDs and just 1 INT.

I would have been all over Cincinnati if I didn’t see what happened to them last week.  Cincinnati barely topped Connecticut last week, winning by a score …

I should have done this way earlier, but it hasn’t come to my mind until now.  There’s still 8 more weeks in the season, so this can still be fun.  I created  Pick ‘Em against the spread league on Yahoo!  Now our members can create a team and enter their picks to see how they fair against me and our other readers.  There’s a link on the right to access the league, which is located above the beer mug.  Cheers!

Feel free to join the league.  Here is the information:

League Homepage: http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/75814

Register Here: http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/register/joingroup

League ID: 75814

League Password: thepassrush

Thanks to our readers who already signed up already.  Don’t forget to enter your picks before the games start.…

Vegas Martin’s top 6 NFL plays from week 9 went 4-2 against the spread this past weekend, so it’s good that we ended up on the winning side yet again.  That is now 3-straight winning weeks and our last 4/5 weeks have been positive. Unfortunately, the top 2 plays didn’t pan out, but we made up all that ground and then some when we found 2 winners at the 4:00 time slot and got another easy win on Monday night with the Steelers over the Broncos pick.

I hope anyone who took a hit on the Packers or Ravens picks boldly followed me into the 4:00 games and the Monday Night game to take back whatever was ours for the taking. New rule, never bet against a home underdog off the bye week. I have been preaching about that all season long, but failed to take my own advice. I felt the Packers over the Bucs and Ravens over the Bengals were both strong plays despite that significant factor to their disadvantage, but we learned the hard way and will not make that mistake again.

Don’t forget to check out Brandon’s week 11 college picks and to sign up for our Yahoo pick ’em league.

On to the week 10 NFL action to find out where we can make the easy money betting against the spread.

CHICAGO BEARS @ SAN FRANSISCO 49ERS -3

We start getting into Thursday Night football, so this is the first matchup of the week.  I don’t really like it.  Both teams have been hard to figure out this season.  Both teams were hugely disappointing last week and I advised our readers to pass on the Bears/Cardinals and 49ers/Titans game for exactly those reasons.  I …

Overall Profit 3.9 units (updated 11/11)

We start the week early again with a game on Tuesday night. We hit last Tuesday with Bowling Green over Buffalo, so lets keep our strong Tuesday night plays rolling.

1) Ohio at Buffalo (-1.5) This Buffalo team plays hard every single time they take the field. Ohio was a great play early in the season, but are simply not playing the type of ball they once were. Ohio faces an angry Buffalo squad after their loss from a week ago to Bowling Green. Ohio has also been plagued by the injury bug and are probably looking at starting their 3rd string QB tonight. If Buffalo can establish the run this game will be over at halftime. Lay the points with Buffalo.

Ohio 27 Buffalo 24 L for 1.1 units

GAME OF THE YEAR #3: FRESNO STATE (+7) at Nevada for 2 units

This line simply blows me away. I have Fresno State as a 9 point favorite!! Strength of schedule alone makes Fresno State a strong play. Just look at who Fresno State has played and how they faired in those games: on the road in Wisconsin lose in the final seconds, lose at home in a competitive match with Boise State, play Cincinnati tough to the final quarter, and then have won 5 straight, including three road wins. Nevada also post three early loses, but against teams not nearly as strong as what Fresno faced: blowout loss on the road to Notre Dame, a terrible loss to Colorado State on the road (who by the way has lost 7 straight games, including a loss to UNLV, who Nevada beat by 35), and a loss at home to a weak Missouri squad. Both …

Overall Profit 5 units

We gave back a few units, but are still on the plus side of things. I have keyed one game for this weekend that I believe may be the absolute biggest play of the year. I will have it posted as soon as I confirm all the numbers and analysis.

College Basketball has started and I cannot be more excited. I told you before it is where I have found the most success, in terms of money made. Last year I was posting my plays on another site under SMART BET and received roughly 500 hits a day. Last night I tipped things off by going 2-0 with a first half and game side play on Ohio State. There are more college games beginning on Wednesday.

Thanks for all the comments.

I am analyzing tonight’s game between Ohio and Buffalo and will post a play if I find something I really like.…