Archive for September, 2011

We are onto week 4 of our NFL Survivor Pool picks. We avoided taking New England last week, who was upset by the Buffalo Bills. Our week 3 survivor pool pick was the San Diego Chargers at home over the Kansas City Chiefs. Although the Chargers didn’t come close to covering the spread, they escaped with the victory. Too bad the Steelers escaped with a 3-point victory over the Colts because half of the survivor league went with the Steelers in week 3.

In week 4, there are several viable options: (1) New Orleans Saints on the road over Jacksonville Jaguars; (2) Atlanta Falcons on the road over Seattle Seahawks; (3) Green Bay Packers at home over the Denver Broncos; (4) Tampa Bay Bucs at home over Indianapolis Colts; and (5) San Diego Chargers at home over Miami Dolphins.

The sure-fire pick would be the Packers at home over the Broncos. Let’s see if we should pull the trigger and take Green Bay or wait another week to take them. Green Bay visits Atlanta in week 5. Week 6 presents another good opportunity to take Green Bay when they’re at home against the Rams. Other than their week 6 game against the Rams, there aren’t any other “locks” for the Packers. The Packers will have the Bucs, Vikings, and Raiders at home later, but this should be the best opportunity to take the Packers this season.

I still have several top teams to pick from later in the season including the Patriots, Steelers, Ravens, Jets, Texans, Saints, and Falcons. I am going with the Green Bay Packers over the Denver Broncos in week 4 of my NFL Survivor Pool. Let me know which game you like best. Vote below.

Question: Who should I start out of Blount, Benson, and Wells?

Adrian Peterson is my No. 1 RB and I need some advice on who to pick for my No. 2 RB.

LeGarrette Blount vs. ATL
Cedric Benson vs. SF
Beanie Wells vs. SEA

I need to pick 1 out of those 3.

Answer:

All are pretty good matchups so you can’t go wrong there. I would go with LeGarrette Blount. He was hot last week.

Know better? Leave your own answer in the comments!…

Yesterday my week 4 college football picks went 4-3 ATS. Miami was a huge let down, but the Florida pick got some of that back. On Saturday, I made some game-time decisions which were posted right before kickoff. Of the picks posted, I hit on Georgia Tech (-6.5) over North Carolina, LSU (-6.5) over West Virginia, Florida (-20) over Kentucky, and Clemson (-2.5) over Florida State. I missed on a Notre Dame (-7)/Under 54 parlay, Colorado (+17) over Ohio State, and Miami (-11.5) over Kansas State. I pretty much ended up even on the day, but let’s take a look at the NFL action.

Based on my week 3 picks, you see that I like 5 games on Sunday: San Diego, Detroit, Carolina, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh. At 1:00, I don’t care much for too many of the games. Most are toss ups in my opinion. I think you’re best sticking with Carolina (-3.5) at home over Jacksonville, who is due for their first win. I want to get on Detroit (-3.5) over Minnesota, but I just have that gut feeling that Minnesota is due for a rebound win (or cover) at home. I’m really high on this Detroit team this year.

At 4:00, I like the Chargers (-14.5) despite the high spread. This game should be a blow out just like the Chiefs last two games, but maybe the Cheifs show up this work for the division game and play a hard fought game. If the Chiefs offense can manage just 13 or 14 points, they can cover. However, I’m looking for a 5 TD performance form the Chargers offense to have them cover in comfortable fashion. This is the NFL though, not Florida vs. Kentucky.

If high spreads …

Question: Week 3 Sit/Start QB Tony Romo or Matt Schaub?

Who would you go with.  Matt Schaub vs. JAC or Tony Romo vs. CAR?

ESPN is projecting 18 points for Schaub and 14 points for Romo. I’m leaning Schaub since the Jags are pretty pathetic and I also have Andrew Johnson as my WR too.

Answer:

You’re right on the money. Schaub and Andre Johnson will destroy the Jags. They both have good matchups, so you won’t go wrong with either one. Good Luck.

Give your answer to this question below!…

My college football mojo is starting to kick in. After a 3-2 ATS week in week 2, I had a strong week in week 3 with a 4-1 ATS record. I’ve been riding Stanford the entire season and have hit on them 3 straight weeks. However, Stanford isn’t playing this week. They’ll be back on October 1 against UCLA and I’ll be happy to give up 14-17 points to take them. Let’s see what’s on tap for week 4.

After scanning the games, there’s not a whole lot of games that I really like. Last week, I liked a handful of games, especially Wisconsin and Stanford. I just don’t see many games that I want to jump on this week. I just have two picks for the time being: Florida and Miami. Miami would be my top play, followed by a potentially small play on Florida.

Florida (-19.5) over KENTUCKY — The spread is too high for me to take, but Florida has blown out Kentucky the last three years: 48-14, 41-7, 63-5. Florida is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 on the road. Florida should win by 3 touchdowns in my opinion.

MIAMI (-12.5) over Kansas State — Miami looked excellent against Ohio State last week. Lamar Miller is going to have a big season. Look for him to have a big game against this Kansas State defense. Kansas State was awful against the run last season, giving up 5.9 yards-per-carry and 229.1 yards-per-game. Miller tore apart Ohio State’s defense and I think he’ll have another incredible performance. He’s averaging 6.9 YPC and 151.5 YPG this season. Some are calling a Miami let down after last week’s “emotional” win, but I don’t see it happening.

SATURDAY MORNING UPDATE:

Might …

Question:

I’m looking for advice on which team I should take in week 3 of my survivor pool. I think both teams are absolute locks straight up. I’m just trying to determine which team is a better strategic play. I’m trying to decide between taking the San Diego Chargers over the Kansas City Chiefs or the Pittsburgh Steelers over the Indianapolis Colts. Which team should I pick and why?

Answer:

Like you said, both teams should be locks this week against their struggling opponents. The Steelers is definitely the safe play against a team without a QB. The Steelers defense probably won’t even let the Colts score. Maybe 10 points max. I would look to save the Steelers until they play the Jaguars or Titans in week 5 and week 6. With the recent injury to Jamaal Charles, they lose their biggest weapon on offense, so the Chargers shouldn’t have a hard time defeating them at home. Good luck this week.

We want to hear your input. Leave your comments below.…

In week 2 of the NFL, I hit my top big-money play in the Detroit Lions (-7.5) over the Kansas City Chiefs. I called a blowout in that game and that’s exactly what happened. There were four games that I recommended last week: Lions, Ravens, Packers, and Cowboys. The Cowboys pushed. The Packers missed on the spread when the Panthers scored a TD on their final drive in the last two minutes to pull the game within 7 points. The Ravens, which I warned was a suckers pick, just didn’t show up in Tennessee and Hasselbeck did a complete 180 from his week 1 performance. Although my top 4 picks went 1-2-1 ATS, I hit my big-money play and that’s pretty much all I care about.

In the pick ’em league, I went 6-8-2 ATS after a 9-5-2 record in week 1. One loss was due to picking my own team in the Eagles that should have won the game if they didn’t shoot themselves in the foot with a fumble on the goal line that led to a Falcons return to the 20 that set up a TD. Those 14-point swings are just killer. My only regretful picks were the Seahawks (+14.5) and Jaguars (+10). I saw an opportunity to take points although I knew the odds were not in their favor and got shot down. You sometimes have to take chances to get ahead in the pick ’em league and those two picks back-fired on me. If I change those picks, I come out two weeks in a row above .500. It was worth a shot. Let’s get onto week 3.

I have five recommendations this week: Chargers, Lions, Steelers, Ravens, and Panthers, and somewhat in that …