Last week my picks went 9-5-2 ATS (click the link to see the pick ’em leaderboard — feel free to join our league!). I hit both 4/5 star picks (Patriots and Cardinals), but missed on my 3/5 star picks (Falcons and Chiefs). After doing more due diligence into the Chiefs vs. Bills game, I smelled trouble, and was lucky enough to change my week 1 survivor pool pick from the Chiefs to the Cardinals before kick off. This is a tough week with a lot of high spreads, but there are a few games I like. I have two star 4/5 picks (Lions and Ravens) and two 3/5 star picks (Cowboys and Packers).
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ DETROIT LIONS (-7.5)
I incorporate herein by reference all comments regarding the Lions from my Week 2 Survivor Pool pick. I love the Lions this year. I have one fantasy team where I drafted Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Jahvid Best, Brandon Pettigrew, and the Lions defense. I shit you not. Every single one of them. I should take Nate Burleson just for the hell of it.
The Chiefs offense was pathetic. Cassel threw 36 passes for 119 yards. That’s 3.3 yards-per-attempt. How are the Chiefs going to get their running game going with Cassel’s awful quarterback play with a much-improved Lions front seven with Suh, Tulloch, Vanden Bosch, and Fairley. The Chiefs should struggle to find points.
The Lions were awesome on offense last week and could be the greatest show on turf in 2011. The Bills scored at will on the Chiefs last week and the Chiefs lost their best defensive player, Eric Berry. There is a 10% chance the Chiefs rebound and we have a “WTF just happened” …
Question: Which team should I pick in week 2 of my survivor pool?
I’m thinking of taking the Pittsburgh Steelers over the Seattle Seahawks or the New York Jets over the Jacksonville Jaguars. I can’t imagine Pittsburgh starting out 0-2. Both New York and Pittsburgh are at home as well and I only want to stick to home teams for now. These picks looks pretty safe to me. Other picks that I am considering are the Green Bay Packers over the Carolina Panthers and the Baltimore Ravens over the Tennessee Titans. What game do you think I should take?
Answer:
Pittsburgh definitely is a lock. However, I want to save a team like the Steelers for later in the season. With that said, you may want to opt for the Jets who have an easy matchup at home against the Jaguars.
I caught a huge break in my survivor pool last week. My initial pick was the Chiefs over the Bills, mostly due to the Chiefs 7-1 home record last season and Bills awful defense from last year. However, when I was doing my due diligence on the pick, I quickly realized the Chiefs were dismal on offense in the preseason, lost Charlie Weiss, and the Bills really boosted their front 7. Uneasy with the chatter of Bills upsetting the Chiefs, which ended up happening, I switched my pick to the Arizona Cardinals. I caught an extremely lucky break with a 4th-quarter punt return for the victory. The Texans and Chargers were easy picks, but I wanted to save those teams for later.
This week I am eyeing up the following picks in order: (1) Detroit over Kansas City; (2) New York Jets over Jacksonville; and (3) Pittsburgh over Seattle. Before we get into the analysis, let me throw out a plug for our pick ’em league. We have 34 participants and still accepting registrations. The winner gets a free NFL Shop t-shirt. The league ID is 63470 and the password is thepassrush. Click here to register.
Detroit Lions over Kansas City Chiefs
I love the Lions this year. I have one fantasy team where I drafted Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Jahvid Best, Brandon Pettigrew, and the Lions defense. I shit you not. Every single one of them. I should take Nate Burleson just for the hell of it. I have $190 on the Lions over 7.5 wins. I fucking love the Lions this year. Last week, my fantasy team showed you why. Calvin Johnson was awesome. Matthew Stafford was awesome. Jahvid Best and Brandon …
So far we have 34 participants in our pick ’em league. Out of those 34 teams in the league, 10 finished above .500 and 16 finished .500 or better. Week 1 was no easy task against the spread folks. I managed a 9-5 record and stand in 3rd place behind DeezNuts (2009 Champion) and BigMoose (returning veteran).
Just because you missed out on week 1 doesn’t mean you can’t still join. We are still accepting registrations. Click here to register. League ID is 63470 and the password is thepassrush. There are 240 more regular season games plus the playoffs so just because you’re trailing DeezNuts and BigMoose by 8 points going into week 2 doesn’t mean you’re out of the hunt. The winner gets bragging rights, glory, their team name on the website, and a free NFL Shop custom t-shirt.
I always warn everyone to not bet against home dogs on Monday Night, but there are certain exceptions to that rule and one exception is if your quarterback is named Tom Brady. Tom Brady played the Dolphins in Miami on Monday Night last season and tore them apart, 41-14.
The Dolphins Chad Henne is not going to out-duel Tom Brady, but can he keep it close? That will be up to Miami’s defense. The Dolphins ranked 6th last year in yards allowed and 8th against the pass, so if there is a defense that can help their struggling QB cover by spotting him 7 points, it’s the Dolphins.
Despite those strong rankings, the Dolphins don’t have a formidable pass rush — something that’s necessary to defeat Brady (think Giants in the Super Bowl). I just don’t see the Miami defense slowing down Mr. Brady and company and I don’t see Chad Henne putting up impressive numbers against a good Patriots defense.
The Patriots have won 6 of their last 8 meetings. Tom Brady is 4-5 ATS in Miami though, but was successful in his last game. I’m sticking with the Patriots.
Prediction: Patriots 27 – Dolphins 17
Free Pick Against the Spread: Patriots -7 (Confidence: 4/5)…
In the pick ’em league, I went 7-5-2 for the week (see the leaderboard after the jump). My winners were Green Bay, Detroit, Washington, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Houston, and Dallas. My losers were Kansas City, Cleveland, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and San Diego. My pushes were Arizona and Tennessee. If you use the opening lines, my record would be 9-5 using Arizona -6.5 and Tennessee +2.5. A winning record overall, although the top 5 I listed were a dismal 1-3-1. There are always surprises week 1, why is why I play with nothing more than funny money until week 3 or 4.
Most people in the league got off to an ugly start. The best record so far has been DeezNuts and Big Moose at 8-4. Don’t forget to sign up to compete. Just because you missed out on week 1 doesn’t mean you still can’t compete. It’s a long season and includes the playoffs this year.
My top play in Arizona -6.5 over Carolina got lucky and hit on a 4th-quarter punt return. You catch a break (Arizona), you lose a break (Harvin kickoff return vs. San Diego). I was not anticipating that type of debut from Cam Newton. Cam Newton throws 422 yards and 2 TDs in his NFL regular season debut. Are you serious? Cam Newton’s preseason numbers: 24/57, 42% completion percentage, 300 yards, 5.3 yards-per-attempt, 1 TD. Cam Newton’s NFL debut numbers: 24/37, 422 yards, 64.8%, 11.4 yards-per attempt, 2 TDs (passing), 1 TD (rushing), 1 INT. What a complete 180 he pulled on us.
San Diego’s cover was blown thanks to an opening kickoff return by Percy Harvin. The Chargers went 17-0 in the second half. The Chargers were the play to make in …
We have two more hours until kickoff. Survivor pools are becoming really popular this year among friends and co-workers. For those unfamiliar, you pick one team per week (typically straight up without considering the spread, but some leagues opt against the spread). Win and you move on, lose and you’re eliminated. You can’t pick the same team twice. Whoever survives at the end of the season gets the cash.
Of the week 1 teams this week, you clearly want to opt for home teams. I’ve narrowed my list to Chiefs over Bills, Cardinals over Panthers, and Browns over Bengals. Which team do you like? Leave me a comment or vote in the poll below. Texans over Colts, Chargers over Vikings, and Patriots over Dolphins are good choices, but the Chargers and Patriots should be used later in the season.
I’ll stick with picking against poor teams in the first few weeks. I’m really torn between the Chiefs and Cardinals. I think I’m leaning Cardinals due to Buffalo boosting their defense and Cassel playing with bruised ribs. I also don’t think there’s a better opportunity to pick the Cardinals and save a strong team for later in the season. Clearly the best two plays are Texans and Chargers, but I’ll be saving those teams for later.
Vote below to help me out.
Which team is the best to pick in the 2011 Week 1 NFL survivor pool?
Last week my picks went 9-5-2 ATS (click the link to see the pick ’em leaderboard — feel free to join our league!). I hit both 4/5 star picks (Patriots and Cardinals), but missed on my 3/5 star picks (Falcons and Chiefs). After doing more due diligence into the Chiefs vs. Bills game, I smelled trouble, and was lucky enough to change my week 1 survivor pool pick from the Chiefs to the Cardinals before kick off. This is a tough week with a lot of high spreads, but there are a few games I like. I have two star 4/5 picks (Lions and Ravens) and two 3/5 star picks (Cowboys and Packers).
I caught a huge break in my survivor pool last week. My initial pick was the Chiefs over the Bills, mostly due to the Chiefs 7-1 home record last season and Bills awful defense from last year. However, when I was doing my due diligence on the pick, I quickly realized the Chiefs were dismal on offense in the preseason, lost Charlie Weiss, and the Bills really boosted their front 7. Uneasy with the chatter of Bills upsetting the Chiefs, which ended up happening, I switched my pick to the Arizona Cardinals. I caught an extremely lucky break with a 4th-quarter punt return for the victory. The Texans and Chargers were easy picks, but I wanted to save those teams for later.
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NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-7) @ MIAMI DOLPHINS
In the pick ’em league, I went 7-5-2 for the week (
We have two more hours until kickoff. Survivor pools are becoming really popular this year among friends and co-workers. For those unfamiliar, you pick one team per week (typically straight up without considering the spread, but some leagues opt against the spread). Win and you move on, lose and you’re eliminated. You can’t pick the same team twice. Whoever survives at the end of the season gets the cash.
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