Archive for September, 2012

I went 7-2 ATS at 1:00 and 9-4 ATS after the 4:00 games. Unfortunately, my top pick at 1:00 was one of my two losses. I was high on the Falcons after they’ve dominated their first three games. I knew the Panthers would have some fight in them, but thought their defense would let them down just like the Giants game. I was forecasting a 10-14 win by the Falcons, but the Falcons barely squeaked by with the victory.

Good thing I said to hedge your bets as I recommended two teasers: Falcons/Cardinals and Falcons/Broncos, which both hit. The pundits who said take the points rather than lay the points were right and I’m glad I listened right before kickoff. Hopefully, you were also able to jump on those teasers. I also played a third teaser of Cardinals (+3)/Broncos/Packers (-0.5) at 4:00, which I also hit by the skin of my teeth thanks to a lot of luck. I got incredibly lucky hitting all three teasers as the Falcons and the Cardinals both should have lost — they both came from behind to win — but sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.

As Andy Reid always says after a disappointing loss, “we have to find a way to get better.” The home dogs have royally screwed up my head. I should have been all over the Patriots, 49ers, and Bengals this week, but I saw a home dog and avoided them like the plague — looking solely at home teams this week. If it wasn’t for a hot start for the home dogs, I would have made all of them my top plays instead of opting for the Falcons or Cardinals. My teasers bailed out my misses …

I had a fantastic Saturday in college football going 3-for-3. I was all over Brandon’s first pick of the day in Clemson (-7) over Boston College. I bet that game big as I’ve been on the Clemson bandwagon all season long. I then took those winnings and took Texas (-2) over Oklahoma State and Wisconsin (+11) over Nebraska (Brandon’s pick in the late game). Both winners. The bank roll is doing well my friend going into Sunday.

This Sunday I have plays on Falcons (-7) over Panthers, Cardinals (-6) over Dolphins, and a teaser with Vikings (+11.5)/Over 41.5. I’m hedging my bets here with the Falcons and Cardinals as there’s some chatter that the Panthers and Dolphins may cover. In the Falcons vs. Panthers game, there is of course that risk that Cam Newton goes off and makes this a tight one. This is a division game afterall. I see some merit in the argument that the Panthers (+7) looks good on paper, but I look at how dominating the Falcons have been and see nothing but liabilities on the Panthers defense. Is a 34-31 style shootout possible? Yes, but I think the Falcons win by 10-14 points here. I’ll stick with the Falcons here. Although Cam may due for a solid game, his defense will let him down once again. The Panthers D-line doesn’t generate any pressure and the Panthers secondary can’t cover. Matt Ryan is going to have a big day. Good luck trying to keep up.

Others are claiming Dolphins (+6) is the play to make here. Now I warned that I’m concerned with giving up the points with an offense that isn’t very prolific against a solid defense. However, as long …

Question:

Which 2 WRs should I start in a standard league for week 4?

Michael Crabtree @ NYJ
Marques Colston @ GB
Danny Amendola vs. SEA
Dez Bryant vs. DAL

Answer:

This is a tough question since you have some tough matchups. Despite the tough Bears matchup, you have to start Dez Bryant as he’s your top WR. You play your best player regardless of the matchup. Bryant should still perform well even against the Bears. The Cowboys are at home on Monday Night which I like.

If this was a PPR league, I say you go Amendola, but without PPR, he’s not as valuable in standard leagues. Seattle has a tough defense and he shouldn’t be getting anywhere close to that 100 YPG that he’s been averaging.

I have Michael Crabtree on my squad but haven’t started him yet. He gets a lot of targets, but he’s not going to score a whole lot of TDs. He’ll gain 60-70 receiving yards consistently each week, but won’t put up any ridiculous numbers.

In your WR2 spot, I would go with Marques Colston. If you’re leaning Amedola for your WR2, that wouldn’t be a bad option either. Good luck.…

Question:

I have the following players and am struggling to decide who to start and who to sit.

Vincent Jackson vs. WAS
Eric Decker vs. OAK
Steve Smith @ ATL
Willis McGahee vs. OAK
Cedric Benson vs. NO

I have Jackson/Decker/Benson starting for week 4 but wondering if I should make a change. Thanks!

Answer:

You have some great matchups to work with. I would go with Vincent Jackson and Eric Decker as my starting WRs since they are facing two poor defenses. Decker should have his first monster fantasy game of the season. Big Ben threw for over 300 yards on the Raiders last week since the Raiders corners are banged up. Peyton Manning will pick them apart.

If you’re deciding between Benson and McGahee at RB, I say you go Benson. McGahee has some banged up ribs and is listed as questionable so he may sit this game out or take limited snaps. Green Bay was feeding Benson the ball last week and that should continue as they’re facing the Saints, who have the worst run defense in the league and gave up over 200 yards to Jamaal Charles last week.

You got it right. Vincent Jackson, Eric Decker, and Cedric Benson are your guys for week 4.…

Question:

I need to decide who to start in my flex spot for a standard scoring league.

Kendall Wright @ HOU
Robert Meachem @ KC
Dexter McCluster vs. SD

Or do I drop one of those guys to pick up Nate Burleson vs. MIN, but I’m limited to 12 add/drops for the year and already used 3.

Answer:

I would go with Robert Meachem, who has a pretty favorable matchup against the Chiefs. He’s also a deep ball threat, so maybe this week is the week that he cashes in that 40-yard TD to put your team over the top.

Kendall Wright has the toughest matchup against Texans defense that doesn’t give up a whole lot of points.

Dexter McCluster is too inconsistent for me to put in my starting lineup. I think you go Meachem here.…

Solid start to the week with a winner on Thursday with Washington. Hopefully, we can turn that positive momentum into a winning weekend.

CLEMSON (-7) vs. Boston College: I have recently made several posts about situational plays and at first glance you may think I would lean BC here as Clemson comes off the tough loss to FSU. However, I think we have an overreaction here against Clemson. Yes, Clemson is coming off a tough loss verse FSU, but Clemson was a 15 point underdog so winning outright was probably out of reach anyways. I am sure Clemson was disappointed with the loss, but not devastated as some teams may be. More importantly though, you cannot deny the talent mismatch on the field in this ACC battle. BC doesn’t even have a decent loss yet. They get beat at home verse Miami, who is weak at best, and then lost last week on the road at Northwestern, clearly the 5th or 6th best team in the Big 10. BC’s lone win comes against Maine, half the teams in the Lingerie Football League could beat them (OK maybe not, but you get my point). I think there are too many mismatches on both sides of the ball. So long as Clemson comes with some general incentive to win this game they should easily cover this spread.  PLAY ON CLEMSON (-7) for 1 unit.

Arizona St at California (+2). Situational play with Cal here. Type this game into google and the one continual theme is that Cal is in a must win position. I hate when people say that, but Cal does need to win here or a bowl game may be out of reach. Overall Cal has played ok. I think …

Stanford at Washington (+7): Much more of my analysis of games, after taking last year off, comes down to spot/situational plays. Tonight we have a perfect example of a great situational play. Stanford comes off a huge win over the Trojans, but do benefit from having 12 days to recover from that big win. However, I said in an earlier post that I don’t believe Stanford is that great of a football team and I am going to stick with that theory and play against them here. Stanford also plays their first road game of the year tonight in a hostile stadium on national TV. Besides the fact that Washington is playing at home with 12 days rest there are several other reasons to like them. First, this is a must win. If you look at their schedule, a defeat tonight could smell big trouble as they play at Oregon, home vs USC, at Arizona, home vs Oregon St, and at California. So look for Washington to come into this game really focused and prepared to make a statement. Second, this is the first PAC-10 conference game, so further motivation. Finally, I like their defense. They are weak against the run, but very good against the pass. If they can force a couple interceptions, Nunes is averaging one per game, then it could set the stage for a close finish. I will take the points here with Washington. PLAY ON WASHINGTON (+7) FOR 1 UNIT.…