Archive for October, 2008

Home-dogs came through again last week running my season total to 21-8, 72%. This week offers up several games, the most of any week so far.

1. Iowa at Indiana (+5): This is a game between two teams that simply cannot get going in the right direction. Iowa has dropped three consecutive games, 2 of the 3 losses coming on the road verse Pittsburgh and Michigan State. However, IU has lost the last three games as well, 2 of the 3 losses coming at home against Ball State and Michigan State. IU has won the last two meetings between these teams. This is a do or die game for both teams. Indiana’s offense has been able to average over 400 yards in total offense per game, while Iowa is just under the 400 yard mark. Indiana does have a balanced attack averaging just about 200 yards rushing and passing. I feel this game will come down to TOs and field position. IU made some bad mistakes early in the game verse MSU that eventually cost them the game. If IU can control the ball and avoid sloppy TOs then this game should be close. (Rating +2) IU had no answers for Iowa offense or defense, clearly a one sided battle. Iowa 45 IU 9

2. TCU at Colorado State (+15): This is clearly a trap game for TCU, if you look ahead on TCU’s schedule you see they only have five days between the game verse CSU and the game verse conference rival BYU, which will likely be a game that determines the conference champion. CSU has been really strong at home, 3-0 SU and 2-0 ATS. CSU is averaging 30 points per game at home compared to their season …

START ‘EM:

1.) Adrian Peterson – Adrian Peterson owners are probably furious after the Saints shut him down completely. You think that with the Saints shoddy run defense, AP would run wild, but they stuffed the box and made Gus Frerotte beat him with his arm. AP has been held under 80 yards in 3 straight games now. Look for AP to finally break the century mark since week 2 this week against the Lions awful run defense that’s allowing 180 YPG on the ground.

2.) Le’Ron McClain – The Colts have overtaken the Lions for worst run defense. McClain has had 4 TDs in his last 3 games and is averaging 66.5 YPG despite sharing the load with Willis McGahee.

3.) Clinton Portis – Portis, my #1 back, is up against a team that’s allowing 166 YPG rushing. He’s been a top 5 fantasy back so far this year and recently manhandled Philadelphia’s tough run defense. I’m looking to extend my winning streak to 3 with a big game from Portis.

4.) Julius Jones – The Packers are surprisingly struggling against the run (allowing 161 YPG), but they’ve been hit with the injury bug. The Seahawks need to come out running with the injury issues at WR.

5.) Thomas Jones – Fresh off the bye week, the Jets have the Bengals, who are 29th against the run. Sure, the Jets have abandoned the run game and let Brett sling the ball around, but it’s tough not to get back to the run when you’re playing a team this bad against the run.

6.) Gus Frerotte – I know one person whose strategy is play any player that he can get that happens to play the Lions. I wouldn’t be …

1.) Devin Hester (WR-CHI) – Hester is developing well into a WR. He’s scored twice in his last two games and had a season high 5 receptions for 63 yards against the Lions. Pretty much anyone who plays against the Lions will do well, but TDs against the Eagles don’t come too easy. With Brandon Lloyd sidelined with a bum knee, that only mean more looks to Hester.

2.) Kyle Orton (QB-CHI) – It looks like Chicago has found their QB with Kyle Orton. In my league, Orton is averaging mroe fantasy points a game than Peyton Manning and Ben Roethlisberger. If you need a backup, go with Orton. He’s the 12th ranked fantasy QB so far this year. He has an 86.7 passer ratings and has thrown 7 TDs in his last 3 games.

3.) Kevin Faulk (RB-NE) – Forget Mahroney, LaMont Jordan, or Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk seems to be the Pats runningback that will produce fantasy points. He should get the share of goalline carries. He had 2 touchdowns last game with 32 yards on the ground and another 29 through the air.

4.) Correll Buckhalter (RB-PHI) – Not only does Westbrook have a sprained ankle, he’s now dealing with fractured ribs. If Westbrook has to miss some time, Buckhalter will be a solid fantasy back.…

I’m going to throw out some quick week 7 college picks against the spread (HOME TEAMS IN CAPS). I like the Vanderbilt and BYU picks the most and I would give some consideration to Kentucky.

Vanderbilt -3 OVER MISSISSIPPI STATE

I like this game a lot. Vanderbilt is rolling with their 5-0 record and they’re 5-0 ATS to boot. Mississippi State is a dismal 1-4 (2-2 ATS) with their sole win over Southeastern Louisiana. They were manhandeled by Georgia Tech, but in their defense, they hung with LSU losing that one by a score of 34-24. Vandy has impressive wins over Auburn, Ole Miss, and South Carolina. Vanderbilt is also manufacturing turnovers. Their 26.6 PPG is better than Miss St.’s 16.2 and Vandy is only allowing 16.2 PPG compared to Miss. St.’s 21.4.

KENTUCKY -1 OVER South Carolina

This should be a good one. Kentrucky is 4-1 and S. Carolina is 4-2. Kentucky is scoring more points than the Game Cocks, are allowing less points, and have the advantage being at home. Kentucky is 3-0 at home this year (albiet, against teams they should crush) compared to S. Carolina’s 1-1 road record. S. Carolina dropped one last week to Ole Miss, while Kentucky lost by only 3 on the road to an outstanding Alabama team.

Iowa -5 OVER INDIANA

Indiana doesn’t play much defense and Iowa does. Iowa’s dropped 3 straight, but they’ve faced very good teams (Michigan State, Northwester, Pittsburgh). Indiana lost by 13 to Michigan State at home, 42-29. Iowa lost to MSU on the road 16-13. They held a team with a Heisman hopeful RB to 16 points: that’s very good. I like Iowa’s defense to dominate this game and Indiana’s defense should give up points.

LSU …

Saints/Vikings Reaction:

Wow! Monday Night Football has been crazy this year to say the least. This has to be right up there with the Eagles/Cowboys game in week 2. Unfortunately, everyone is feeling sorry for the Saints. They deserved to win that one badly and really, the score could have been 38-10 if about 3 plays just went their way and the refs weren’t against them. Um, is it time to fire Ed Hocules yet? At least try to give the Saints a make up call after that blown face mask by giving them the ball after the Adrian Peterson fumble, which it was, instead of the lousy top-of-the-hand/ball-gripping explanation. Add Ed Hocules to the list of people that I would want Kimbo Slice to punch in the face. Come to think of it, I would put my money on Hocules the way Kimbo went down last week.

Luckily, I won my teaser by a point. With the Saints +4 and over 39.5, it worked out perfectly except having to be nervous down 20-10 at the half. The Monday and Sunday Night teasers continue to be working out perfectly. In fact, the Monday Night over may be the play to make every week at this pace: the over is now an unbelievable 6-0 ATS on Monday Night’s this season. That’s unprecedented. Monday Night has treated us to some very good games this year and has made my Monday Night picks 5-1.

Thank you Mr. Reggie Bush.

Week 6 NFL Spreads Forecast:

As I’m looking forward to next week, the Giants -9 over the Browns is looking appealing. The Browns are pretty awful on both sides of the ball and the Giants are playing like the defending Super Bowl …

Troy at Florida Atlantic (+3.5): Week 7 opens up with an early home-dog play in the Sun-Belt conference. Troy is a respectable 2-2, while FAU is 1-4. A quick glance at this game would appear to give Troy a considerable edge. However, FAU has played an impressive schedule including games at Texas, at Michigan State, at Minnesota, and a tough last second loss last week at Middle Tenn St. The only win came at home verse UAB 49-34. FAU is only averaging 15 points a game, while Troy is averaging almost 33. FAU has clearly struggled on the road, but most teams will struggle against tough defenses in the Big 12 and Big 10. Troy is coming off two consecutive road games at Ohio State and at Oklahoma State. Troy now must go on the road for a third consecutive time. That is a lot of traveling for any team. With the exception of a poor performance against Minnesota, FAU’s D has been impressive holding Michigan State to only 17 points and Midd Tenn St to 14. FAU is 2-2 ats this year. FAU should benefit by being home for the first time in a while and should be excited to play in a televised game in front of their home crowd. Look for FAU to take advantage of a tired Trojans team that may come out flat. If FAU can jump on them early they should be able to pull off a solid conference win. (Rating +2). While Troy was clearly the better team, FAU made several poor decisions on offense and special teams. Home-dogs cannot win or cover when they make silly TOs and that was simply the downfall of FAU tonight. When they were able to mount …

Thanks to the Sunday Night teaser and the Chicago game, it put me in the black despite a huge Chargers let down and now it’s time for Monday Night Football. Tonight, we have the Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints. The Saints are 3-point favorites and the over/under is set at 46.5. So far, the Saints are 3-0-1 on the over and the Vikings are 2-2 on the over. Most people think the over is the play to make, but the Saints won’t keep putting up 30+ points every game, especially not against a defense like the Vikings, but so far the Vikings haven’t been overly impressive. Everyone thought the Vikings would rack up sacks with Jared Allen on that line, but he’s only had 2 sacks this year. Their team has only had 7 sacks this year (ranked 23rd) and Drew Brees has only been sacked 4 times this year. The Vikings are allowing 20.5 PPG and the Saints are allowing 25 PPG. The Saint’s 27.8 PPG is 7th in the league compared to the Vikings 17.8 PPG (ranked 23rd). The Vikings have managed only 2 INTs to the Saints 4.

The Saints have a lot of injuries on their defense, the key injury being to 1st-round pick DT Sedrick Ellis. That loss means the team is without their two starting DTs. The Saints are already 27th in yards allowed, 19th against the run (allowing 123 YPG), and 29th against the pass (allowing 250 YPG). What they lack in defense, they’ve made up in offense, but can they keep passing against a team that is 7th in yards allowed and a team that allows just 207 YPG passing (ranked 16th)? The Vikings are also 3rd against the run, allowing …