Archive for November, 2008

NEW YORK JETS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -3.5

I don’t see the Pats scoring much on a pretty good Jets defense. I would take the points. 3.5 is pretty favorable for this game.

DENVER BRONCOS @ ATLANTA FALCONS -6

The Falcons have been on a tear. They have both the passing and running game running on all cylinders and beat the Saints last week 34-20. There defense is pretty good to boot. You can count on the Denver defense giving up a ton of points, but their offense should be able to score points too. The over/under is 51.5 and that’s right on point. This one should see lots of points by both teams, but with the defensive edge going to the Falcons at home, I think they’ll cover.

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS -10.5

Last week the Dolphins came out as 9 point favorites and couldn’t cover against the Seahawks. There’s no way I’m laying down 10.5 on the Dolphins and there’s no way I’m taking the Raiders either. Pass on this one.

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ NEW YORK GIANTS -6.5

With the exception of the Browns game, the Giants have been unstoppable. They clearly have the best offensive line in football. The Ravens are still without their top corner Chris McAllister, so that Giants passing game will get the Giants through this game even if the Ravens are able to stop the run. With McAllister out, the Ravens pass D has slid from #1 to #9. This one could be a close one, so I’m not crazy about the spread. The Ravens running game is the key to that offense and the Giants are averaging less than 90 yards allowed per game on the ground.

HOUSTON TEXANS @ INDIANAPOLIS …

Thanks to the Philadelphia Phillies World Series victory, I have a nice bankroll to work with. I placed a small futures bet on them with 25:1 odds at the beginning of the season. After looking through the games this week, I decided to place the following bets:

Penn State -8 OVER IOWA. 2 units.

Iowa’s last second field goal crush PSU’s national championship dreams.

Titans -3 OVER BEARS. 4 units.

Titans come through with a 21-14 win even after their FB coughed up the ball on the 1 when he could have had a TD. Why would they not give the ball to LenDale White in that situation?

Panthers -9.5 OVER RAIDERS. 3 units.

Panthers come through with the 17-6 win.

Rams +9 OVER JETS. 2 units.

I knew the Jets would win, but was thinking that they would come out by merely a TD. I didn’t see this one being a blow out. I should have kept them out of my teaser card too. I guess I put too much emphasis on the Rams beating the Cowboys and Redskins and keeping it close with the Patriots along with the Jets loss to the Raiders.

1-Unit 8-Team Teaser (Pays 10:1): Cardinals -2.5, Jaguars +0.5, Packers +9.5, Panthers -2.5, Rams +16, Ravens +7, Dolphins -1, Titans +4.

I think it has a good chance of hitting, but that’s why they call them teasers. Usually 6-7 teams will hit, and 1 will screw you. Let’s see what happens.…

Notes: I will give an analysis of the games later tonight, but I wanted to get these posts out sooner rather than later.

1.Ohio State at Northwestern (+10.5): (Rating +1)

2. Southern Mississippi at Central Florida (+3): (Rating +1)

3. Arizona State at Washington (+14.5): (Rating +2)

4. New Mexico at UNLV (+4.5):(Rating +3)

5. Oregon State at UCLA (+8): (Rating +3)…

Sorry for missing the NFL picks last week. I was crazy busy, but I’m back this week for a quick run-down of each game.

DENVER BRONCOS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS -3

Two games into the season and the Broncos looked like the most explosive offense in the NFL. Now, they look like they’re terrible. After suffering losses to the Patriots, Jaguars, and Dolphins, they go on the road and I wouldn’t be confident in them. Brady Quinn got the nod as the Browns QB. Even though they got killed by Ravens last week, I like the Browns at home. They did beat the Giants at home.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -6.5 @ DETROITS LIONS

I think it’s always a good idea to bet against the Lions. For a second, I thought the Lions were almost about to get their first win of the season last week against Chicago, but no dice. The Jaguars haven’t done too much to impress me, but they should roll over the Lions. They lost to a terrible Bengals team last week, but they have the Lions dude. You also have to think that the Lions are finally due for one at home. Can they really go 0-16? Well, maybe.

TENNESSEE TITANS -3 @ CHICAGO BEARS

I thought the Titans would be heavy favorites. Especially that Rex Grossmen will probably remain the Bears QB with Orton injured. You kind of have to sense a trap game for the Titans, but like the Ravens game they played on the road, this should be a low scoring defensive tussle, and I see them coming out on top in the end. I think the Titans are a very good play. I would pay any amount of money to have Jeff Fisher coach …

Question: Who is your lock in week 10 for survivor pools?

I’m in a survivor pool and need help picking a lock for this week.  Here are the teams that I picked already and cannot pick again: Carolina, Minnesota, Tampa Bay, Houston, and Chicago

Carolina
Minnesota
TB
Houston
Chicago

Note: We started the survivor pool in week 5, which is why I don’t have 10 teams on my list.

What I would like to hear from you is who is your lock this week other than the aforementioned teams? If you can also include your reasoning with the pick, it would be much appreciated.

Answer:

I would take the San Diego Chargers. I cannot see the Chargers losing after they come off their bye week, playing at home against the Chiefs. Plus, the season is playing out like  no team in the AFC West wants to win that division, so I think it is perfect timing for San Diego to step up and take control of the division.

What do you think? Answer below!…

First off, if you are interested in this game and you have multiple online betting accounts you will want to check for the best line as I have seen this line anywhere from 8 to 10. As I said earlier, I have been watching Ball State closely for th past couple of years and making money off them. However, I think this is a great spot to play against BSU. Both of these teams have been great ATS this year (NIU 5-2 BSU 6-1). On the road, NIU is a perfect 4-0 ATS. Overall NIU’s defense on the road has been better than BSU’s defense at home. Both teams defenses have been excellent as of late holding appoints to less than 12 points per game. This is also likely the best defense BSU has played all year long and I am sure NIU has little extra to play for as BSU is ranked in the top 25 and this is an important conference match-up. NIU definetly has a chance to win this game and remember over this year how many upsets we have seen during mid-week games. Take the points with NIU.  (Rating +3)…

Underdog plays came through again with another solid week.

Week 10: Record 4-2

Overall Record 31-21 (60%)

Week 10 Units of Profit +6

Overall Units of Profit +8…