Archive for December, 2008

My impressions from the early week (Jets and Patriots) are the top 2 picks on the Covers.com consensus, each getting at least 80% of the action. I also like the Bears and Titans.

My plays for this week are 9 units on Patriots -3 over Seahawks (to win 6 units, I moved the spread from -4.5 to -3 to make it safer), 4 units on Jets -4 over 49ers, 3 units on Bears -6.5 over Jaguars, and 2 units on the Vikings -10 over the Lions.

Note: The Patriots line moved from -4.5 to -7.  That’s a ridiculous move.  The betting public loves the Pats and I love that I have them locked in at only -3.

I was thinking of going with a 6-team teaser, but I’ll test my chances with this 6-team parlay: Bears -6.5, Falcons/Saints over 51.5, Jets -4, Patriots -4.5, Titans -14, and Packers -5.5. The parlay pays 50:1. I know it’s a longshot (clearly reflected by the odds), but it’s a solid card on paper.

As always, the NFL has been crazy. Use your own judgment. Good luck this week.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -4.5 @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

11/11 experts and 84% of the consensus at covers.com likes the Pats and so do I. The Pats are scoring and the Seahakws are allowing 24 PPG for their respective home/away stats. New England is allowing 21 on the road and the Seahawks are scoring 21 at home. Let’s see if the Patriots win this one 24-21. The Seahawks have lost 5 straight, Hasselbeck is completing only 52% of his passes, and he has a 2:1 INT/TD ratio. I have to trust ’em at covers.com, especially after the Seahawks embarrassment against the Cowboys last week. The …

Last weekend we had some really nice plays going 5-3-1. Importantly, 3 out of 4 of our second week bets won, with the other game going as a push. Even with a limited number of games this weekend there are still several games that fit the system.

Bet $38.50 on the following:

1. Alabama vs. Florida (-9) Fl 31 Ala 20 WIN

2. Boston College (-1) at Virgina Tech VT 30 BC 12 loss

Bet $27.50 on the following:

1. Middle Tennesse State (+5) vs. UL Lafayette UL 42 MTSt 28 loss

2. Louisville at Rutgers (-10) Louisville has really struggled on the road this year and Rutgers has turned what looked to be a bad year into another winning season. Rutgers defense is much better than Louisville. Louisville has allowed over 30 points on the road while Rutgers is holding teams to 16. Lay the points here with Rutgers.  RUTGERS 63 LOU 14 WIN

3. Buffalo at Ball State (-15) BUFF 42 BSU 24 loss

4. Navy at Army Under 44.5 NAVY 34 ARMY 0 WIN

5. Washington at California (-35)  CAL 48 WASH 7 WIN

6. USC at UCLA Under 47.5 USC 28 UCLA 7 WIN

7. Arkansas State at Troy (-11) TROY 35 AkSt. 9 WIN

8. Missouri at Oklahoma (-17) I know that Missouri can score and score in bunches on just about anyone, but OK will be ready for them. OK cannot leave any doubts if they want to play in the National Title game. Look for OK to throw the ball a lot and do everything possible to make this a blowout. OK 62 MIZZ 21WIN

9. Missouri at Oklahoma Over 79 TOTAL 83 WIN

10. Arizona State (+11) at Arizona AZ 31 ASU …

After taking a look at the week 14 spreads, none really jump out as “must-take spreads” like the Ravens last week. There are 3 spreads at 13.5, which you don’t usually see. Those being the Titans over Browns, Colts over Bengals, and Cardinals over Seahawks.

I like the Dolphins over the Bills in a pick ’em game, which will be played at the Rogers Centre (Toronto Blue Jays stadium).  The Dolphins comfortably won the last game 25-16, but the Toronto crowd may give the Bills an extra boost.

Patriots -5 over the Seahawks in Seattle is one that I want to look into more. The Jets -4 over the 49ers is another one I like, but the 49ers have been playing much better lately.

Panthers vs. Bucs on Monday Night is probably the most intriguing game of the week. The Panthers, at home, are 3-point favorites at (-120) and there’s a chance that it moves to -3.5. Both teams 9-3 will be fighting for first place. The the Bucs dominated the first game in Tampa Bay 27-3.…

Question: Who should I take in my survivor pool in week 14?

I need your help selecting a game from the list below so I can advance to the next round:

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants – Giants
Houston Texans @ Green Bay Packers – Green Bay
Cincinnati Bengals @ Indianapolis Colts – Indianapolis
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos – Broncos
New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks – Patriots

Answer:

I don’t like the division games of Eagles @ Giants and Chiefs @ Broncos so take them off your list. Cincinnati only has 1 win this season, so they should get rocked by the Colts. I really like that pick. You also can’t go wrong with the Patriots over the Seahawks. You have some nice teams to pick from late in your survivor pool season. You must have done a solid job so far. Good luck.

Add your own answer in the comments!…

I’m not hugely in favor of either team in this game. The Texans are favored by 3 at home and the over/under is 48. The experts at Covers.com are split down the middle on this one and 75% favor the under. I actually like the over seeing as how the last game between these two teams was a Jacksonville win 30-27 in Jacksonville. Their games in 2007 were also high scoring, averaging 62 points in those two last year. Houston’s last 5 games hit the over and 3/4 of the Jaguars last 4 games have hit the over. I think the over is the play tonight.

As far as which team comes out on top, neither team may be worth betting on as they’re both 4-7 and hungry for a win. You can count on Houston giving up points. Houston is 29th in points allowed per game, giving up nearly 27 per game. They’re also ranked 23rd against the run, which is where Jacksonville thrives. Jacksonville is pretty average on both sides of the ball and Houston can score in bunches as well.

I expect a tight, entertaining game throughout. I say that both teams break 24, so I like the over. Jacksonville CB Mathis is questionable for the Jags, so that Houston passing game will have a lot of success if he’s out. Not too many significant injuries on Houston’s front. This one is still a toss up to me.

I may go with a teaser like Jacksonville +10, over 41. I may also parlay the over 48 with either team, I can’t decide who I like more in this one. Both teams have lost their last 3 of 4, so I’m not confident in either one.

I think …